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US Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA): expects to keep coupon and FRN auction sizes steady for the next several quarters. Begun to preliminarily consider future auction size increases.

Important
SourceNewsquawk
SectionFixed Income
  • Offering USD 125bln (prev. 125bln) of Treasury securities to refund c. USD 98.2bln (prev. 89.8bln) of privately-held Treasury notes; will raise new cash of USD 26.8bln (prev. 35.2bln).

Nominal Coupon and FRN Financing

  • Treasury maintains guidance that it "anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters". Begun to preliminarily consider future auction size increases

TIPS

  • Intends to maintain the 10yr re-opening at 19bln
  • Intends to increase the 5yr re-opening to USD 24bln (prev. 23bln)
  • Intends to maintain the new 10yr at USD 21bln.

Bills

  • "... expects to maintain the offering sizes of benchmark bills into late-November"
  • "...expects to implement modest reductions to short-dated bill auction sizes during the month of December. Thereafter, by the middle of January 2026, Treasury anticipates increasing bill auction sizes based on expected fiscal outflows."

Buybacks

  • In both the 10- to 20-year and 20- to 30-year nominal coupon buckets, Treasury plans to conduct four operations over the refunding quarter, each for up to USD 2bln.
  • Plans to conduct one liquidity support buyback of up to USD 4bln.
  • Two operations in the 1- to 10-year TIPS bucket, each for up to USD 750mln, and one operation for up to USD 500mln in the 10- to 30-year TIPS bucket.
  • Anticipates resuming cash management buybacks in December 2025 (paused in September)
  • Expects to purchase as much as USD 38bln in off-the-run securities across buckets for liquidity support and up to USD 25bln in the 1-month to 2-year bucket for cash management purposes.

Small Value Contingency Operation

  • Sometime over the next three months, Treasury intends to conduct a small-value test auction using its contingency auction system.
  • This small-value test auction should not be viewed by market participants as a precursor or signal of any pending policy changes regarding Treasury’s existing auction processes.

TBAC Minutes

  • "...dealers acknowledged that there is uncertainty concerning when the Federal Reserve will conduct open market operations to increase the size of its balance sheet."
  • "Although rates have moved higher, Committee members emphasized that the repo market for Treasury securities has remained orderly and has functioned reasonably"
  • "Dealers reiterated that the substantial length of the when-issued period is a driving force in persistent repo specialness, and they expressed favorable views on shortening the time between auction and settlement for reopenings"

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