US NY Fed Manufacturing (Feb) -5.8 vs. Exp. -18.0 (Prev. -32.9)

• New orders index: -7.8 (prev. -31.1 M/M)


• Prices Paid: 45 (prev. 33)


• Employment: -6.6 (prev. 2.8)


• Six Month Outlook: 14.7 (prev. 8.0)

Analysis details (15:01)

The NY Fed manufacturing index was mixed in February. The headline business conditions fared better than hoped at -5.8, not as deep as the -18 forecast, or as steep as January's -32.9, though still in contractionary territory. New orders printed -7.8, an improvement from the prior month's -31.1. Prices paid however saw a notable increase, rising to 45.0 from 33.0, accelerating from the expansion in January, while employment entered contractionary territory at -6.6 from +2.8. Falling employment and rising inflation puts the Fed in a difficult position. Nonetheless, the outlook component was more optimistic rising to 14.7 from 8.0. Analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics explain the surge in the headline due to the China manufacturing rebound and much less severe weather than usual. PM also notes it is reasonable to expect further gains over the next couple of months but the sector will face pressure from weakening US demand as the Fed continues its tightening process. 

15 Feb 2023 - 13:30- Fixed IncomeImportant- Source: Reuters