US MIDTERM ELECTION UPDATE: House set to fall under Republican control, Senate remains too close to call

Analysis details (08:47)

House: 

• As it stands, of the 435 seats up for election (218 seats are required for control), official results have Republicans on 196 and Democrats on 168.


• Projections from the New York Times (seats either already won by a party or projected to win) put the Republicans on 219 and Democrats on 207 with 9 seats viewed as "tossups". Accordingly, NYT assigns an 81% chance of Republicans controlling the House.


• Note, modelling by 538 ahead of the election projected the Republicans with 230 seats and Democrats with 205, therefore, it appears that despite losing, the Democrats have exceeded expectations.

Senate:

• As it stands, of the 100 seats in the Senate of which 35 are up for election in this cycle, (51 seats are required for control), official results have Republicans on 47 and Democrats on 48.


• Projections from the New York Times (seats either already won by a party or projected to win) put the Republicans on 48 and Democrats on 49 with 3 seats viewed as "tossups". Accordingly, NYT assigns the race as a "tossup".


• Three key battleground states which are yet to be called are Arizona, Nevada and Georgia.


• As it stands, NYT assigns a 66% probability that Democrats will win Arizona.


• For Nevada, with 68% of the votes having been counted, the Democrat candidate is on 48.97% and Republican on 48.16%. Note, according to NYT, officials did not make predictions for the pace of reporting. However, in 2020, it took three days for 90% of the vote to be reported.


• For Georgia, where no winner can be declared unless they win 50% of the vote, the Democrat candidate is on 49.34%, Republican on 48.6% and Libertarian on 2.06%. Therefore, this seat could end up having to be decided via an election run-off which would be held on December 6th. As such, the outcome of the election might not be known for weeks.


• Note, modelling by 538 ahead of the election projected the Republicans with 51 seats and Democrats with 49.

09 Nov 2022 - 08:47- Important- Source: Newsquawk