US FX WRAP: Dollar weighed by NFP miss; Crude rally supports CAD strength

Analysis details (20:29)

The Dollar was generally weaker against major peers on Friday as recent support from geopolitical risks were offset by a surprise downturn in US jobs growth. NFP unveiled a decline of 92k jobs in the economy (exp. +59k), with an unemployment rate ticking up to 4.4% from 4.3%, with wages coming above expectations. Some desks have since downplayed the readings, citing the impacts from Storm Fern, yet losses in health pose concerns given consistent gains over the last 12 months. Much Fed speak followed the jobs report, with divergence remaining amongst a committee filled with inflation worries (Hammack (voter), Collins (non-voter), Goolsbee (nv) vs labour doves (Waller & Miran). Elsewhere, US oil prices hit USD 90/bbl, a level not seen since October 2023 as a largely vacant Strait of Hormuz has participants shifting to a stance that large impacts will be felt in a matter of days or a couple weeks, not months. DXY hit highs of 99.435 before paring to ~98.99, but remains +1.35 from last week.

CAD led G10 strength as surging oil prices and a weaker USD left the currency in prime position for gains. On data, Canadian Ivey PMI SA rose above expectations to 56.6 in February (exp. 51.1). USD/CAD sits around lows of 1.3580. Meanwhile, EUR and JPY lagged as in their case, higher oil & gas prices are more of a negative, given their heavy reliance on exports. EUR/USD was little changed at 1.1600 while USD/JPY climbed about 0.380 to USD 157.94.

06 Mar 2026 - 20:29- ForexUS Research- Source: Newsquawk