US EARLY MORNING: US index futures are a touch lower, yields a touch higher; Powell Part 2, Fedspeak and services ISM ahead

EQUITIES: US equity futures are trading mildly lower (-0.1% for ES, -0.3% for NDX); European counterparts attempted higher after the cash equity open, although ran out of steam amid a barrage of geopolitical headlines relating to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia foreign minister Lavrov has suggested further talks are set to take place today, although there is not very much optimism among traders that any significant progress can be made yet.

TREASURIES: Treasury yields are higher by a couple of basis points, and the shape of the curve is mixed but little changed. Domestically, testimony from Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday gave a hat tip to money market pricing which expects the FOMC to lift rates by a 25bps increment at the March 16th confab, though Powell did suggest that the Committee could move in 50bps increment(s) if the situation called for it. Powell didn’t reveal much on balance sheet plans, and said these would not be finalised by the March FOMC, but he thinks the process of balance sheet normalisation could take around three years. Powell will repeat these themes in testimony to Senate lawmakers later today. Money markets price a 95% chance of a 25bps move in March, little changed vs 24hrs ago.  

CRUDE: Global oil benchmarks continue to tick up (Brent and WTI have added just shy of three bucks apiece), and this has resulted in inflation forward swaps continue to move higher. OPEC+ remained steady with policy on Wednesday, and will hike output by the planned 400k BPD in April, in line with its current policy; there was no discussion about Russia. Meanwhile, French officials earlier in the week wanted an Iran nuclear deal done by the end of this week, however, the latest commentary doesn't suggest we are any closer: diplomats were said to genuinely not know which way it was going on the Iran nuclear deal and most still think this could come together and confidence levels were low, according to some reports. Nevertheless, Iran reminds us that it can lift oil production to max capacity within a couple of months of a deal being reached (previously, it has said that production could be raised to around 4mln BPD from around 2.5mln in a three-month window) - and reminding us that there are some potential downside risks within the crude complex, although for now, the street still thinks events in Russia leaves the bias towards higher prices.

DAY AHEAD: The day ahead features ECB meeting minutes (primer here), US services ISM (expect a rise to 61.0 from 59.9 - watching prices carefully), Powell Testimony Part 2 (expect a copy and paste job). Fed’s Williams speaks afterhours, while BoC Governor Macklem delivers an economic progress report following the Canadian central bank’s 25bps rate hike yesterday (we’re interested in commentary around the balance sheet).

EQUITY NEWS:

RUSSIA:

CONSUMER CYCLICAL:

TECH:

COMMUNICATIONS:

MATERIALS:

INDUSTRIALS:

FINANCIALS:

HEALTH CARE:

03 Mar 2022 - 10:05- EquitiesResearch Sheet- Source: Newsquawk

Russian FederationUSDOilSPLKBrentFederal ReserveWDCMGMMSCIInstitute for Supply ManagementVisa IncUnited StatesLOGI.USAEO.USGEF.USMGM.USORCL.USSNOW.USSPLK.USWDC.USITVPY.USNFLX.USKKR.USAA.USCRH.USBA.USMEGGY.USGS.USSCGLY.USV.USSNY.USVEEV.USGBPNASDAQ 100 IndexITV PLCNetflix IncNFLXAlcoa IncAluminiumCRH PLCBoeing Co/TheBAGoldman Sachs Group Inc/TheGSHedge FundBanksPYPLSociete Generale SAESVMemberMGM Resorts InternationalForeign MinisterTECHOracle CorpORCLSplunk IncWestern Digital CorpEntertainmentSanofiVeeva Systems IncBOX.USEquitiesPYPL.USOPECFranceECBBoCGovernorCentral BankInflationFOMCGreif IncResearch SheetAsian SessionHighlightedGeopoliticalIranEURUkraine

Subscribe Now to Newsquawk

Click here for a 1 week free trial

Newsquawk provides audio news and commentary for over 15,000professional traders and brokers worldwide. Services include: