US EARLY MORNING: US futures are negative amid a gloomy global risk tone; Fedspeak ahead, US CPI later in the week, while earnings season kicks off towards the back-end of the week

US PRE-MARKETS: US equity futures are trading with losses amid a gloomy risk tone, where China CPI data disappointed expectations overnight, reignniting fears about a slowdown in the world's second largest economy. US Treasury Secretary Yellen concluded her visit to China, where she held direct talks with Chinese officials. The readout suggested that some progress was made in talks, but key disagreements remain, with China expressing concerns about US sanctions; both sides said they aim to deepen economic ties and maintain communication. The key release for the week ahead is the US CPI Data due on Wednesday, and before then, the NY Fed will release its gauge of consumer expectations in the late US morning. The corporate reporting season will also kick-off this week, when Big Banks begin publishing their numbers for Q2. In terms of the day ahead, there is a decent amount of Fedspeak, which traders will look to to frame the recent economic data, particularly the mixed payrolls reading from Friday.

Q2 CORPORATE EARNINGS: Earnings season will begin at the tail end of the week, with Big Banks reporting their numbers for Q2 Goldman Sachs notes that for the Q2 season as a whole, the consensus view looks for a 9% Y/Y decline in S&P 500 EPS, which will be driven by flat sales growth and margin compression. Goldman says that it expects companies will be able to meet the low bar set by consensus. "Negative EPS revisions for 2023 and 2024 appear to have bottomed and revision sentiment has improved," the bank says. GS says the key areas traders will be focusing on include: (1) ability of firms to maintain margins as inflation recedes, (2) impact of bank stress on credit and lending, (3) potential uses of AI, (4) status of the US consumer. Its estimates for 2023 EPS remain above consensus, forecasting USD 224 vs consensus USD 220, but the bank continues to view the 2024 consensus for EPS growth (of +11%, at USD 244) as too optimistic - it thinks that EPS will grow by around 5% for FY23 to USD 237.

CITI ON STOCKS: Citi's strategists lowered their view of US equities from "overweight" to "neutral" because US stocks have performed well recently, and there is still a risk of a recession ahead. The bank also downgraded global Tech stocks due to potential weakness in large growth companies, but they plan to buy these stocks if their prices fall. Citi prefers investing in sectors that are experiencing growth and selective cyclical industries, and raise their view of the Materials and Industrial sectors. Regionally, Citi upgrades Europe to "overweight" as it is trading at a significant discount compared to the US, and could benefit from a weaker USD and potential stimulus from China. However, Citi downgrades UK stocks to "neutral" due to a lack of exposure towards growing companies, while the stronger GBP could have a negative impact. Citi upgrades emerging markets to "overweight" due to an appealing risk/reward profile with a combination of growth and materials. The bank also predicts a slight slowdown in EPS but not a full recession. The outlook has balanced risks, with possible "soft landing" scenarios, but tighter credit conditions and central bank liquidity are significant challenges.

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10 Jul 2023 - 09:30- EquitiesData- Source: Newsquawk

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