US EARLY MORNING: US equity futures start the last full trading week of the year with small gains

US PREMARKETS: US equity futures start the last full trading week of the year with slight gains, though are off highs. News flow has been light over the weekend, with markets continuing to digest Fedspeak ahead of PCE data later this week (see our week ahead, below, for our primer). Treasury yields are lower across the curve, with the short-end outperforming amid the curve bull-steepening. After NY Fed President Williams Friday leaned back on the market’s pricing for the Fed’s expected rate path in 2024, money markets have resumed dovishly, and once again are almost completely pricing in six 25bps rate cuts next year, despite official Fed forecasts only pencilling in three. The first cut is fully priced for May, though there is an 80% chance it could be seen in March. Fed’s Bostic sees two rate cuts next year, he said on Friday, while the Fed’s Goolsbee said that although inflation has made progress, and unemployment is still low it was still too soon to declare victory, adding that rate decisions will be based on incoming data; he also said that the Fed may need to shift its focus back onto the jobs side of its mandate. The slate for today is thin.

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18 Dec 2023 - 09:30- Data- Source: Newsquawk

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