US EARLY MORNING: US equity futures lack direction in thin trade in wake of Thursday's sell-off

Analysis details (09:25)

US-PRE-MARKETS: US equity futures are very contained, between -0.2% and +0.2%, after Thursday’s sell off following a dismal 30yr auction and Powell’s hawkish lean, which is seeing European equities play catch up and reside largely in the red in wake of a lackluster handover from APAC trade on the aforementioned themes. Nonetheless, newsflow has been quiet to end the week, so far, although on Thursday evening a ransomware attack on the ICBC disrupted the US Treasury market by stopping China's largest bank from settling Treasury trades. Looking ahead, attention resides on central bank speak from Fed’s Logan (2023 voter) and Bostic (2024 voter), on top of ECB President Lagarde. The US data docket has been light this week as participants await CPI (14/11), but there is prelim November UoM at 15:00GMT/10:00EST. Meanwhile, the Dollar is flat and within contained ranges which is reflected in G10 peers performance, as the Antipodeans reside as the ‘underperformers’, albeit barely, as the Aussie was subdued following the RBA SoMP overnight. Precious metals (XAU, XAG) are seeing marginal losses, although spot gold remains above USD 1,950/oz. WTI and Brent are firmer by circa USD 0.70/bbl and on 76/bbl and 80/bbl handles, respectively, as it attempts to regain some of its weekly losses. Treasuries are largely flat across the curve with the short-end seeing marginal weakness.

EQUITY NEWS

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY:

• 
  Wynn Resorts (WYNN) - Q3 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.99 (exp. 0.75), Revenue 1.67bln (exp. 1.59bln), Adj. EBITDA 530.4mln (exp. 495.16mln). CEO said in Macau, the recovery continued to progress during the quarter, with particular strength in our mass gaming, luxury retail and hotel businesses.


• 
  Richemont (CFRUY) - H1 2023 (EUR): Revenue 10.2bln (exp. 10.3bln), Revenue growth 12% (exp. 12.8%), APAC revenue (at cc) +23% (exp. 22.9%). In comms., said growth eased in Q2 as inflationary pressure, slowing economic growth and geopolitical tensions began to affect customer sentiment, compounded by strong comparatives. Consequently, it has seen a broad-based normalisation of market growth expectations across the industry. The positive news is that a soft-landing scenario seems to be prevailing in major economies with still higher growth expected from China, which should benefit from stimulus measures.


• 
  Capri (CPRI) – Q2 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.13 (exp. 1.53), Revenue 1.29bln (exp. 1.35bln) with results weighed on by “macro-economic headwinds as well as E-commerce implementation related challenges”. But, CPRI said commerce issues will be fully resolved in March ’24 quarter.


• 
  NVR (NVR) – Board authorized a USD 750mln share repurchase plan.


• 
  Groupon (GRPN) – Q3 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.12 (exp. 0.11), Revenue 126.5mln (exp. 126.69mln). Co-founder Lefkofsky resigns from board and co. plan to raise roughly USD 100mln via equity offering and asset sales. Sees FY24 revenue down 5% to flat.


• 
  Autoliv (ALV) – Raises quarterly dividend by 3% to USD 0.68/shr.

COMMUNICATION SERVICES:

• 
  The Trade Desk (TTD) - Q3 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.33 (exp. 0.29), Revenue 493mln (exp. 487mln). Q4 revenue view of at least 580mln (exp. 611mln).


• 
  TKO Group Holdings (TKO) – Announced secondary offering of 8.4mln shares of Class A stock by a selling stockholder, WWE founder Vince McMahon, for about USD 700mln.


• 
  Meta (META) – Has reportedly struck a preliminary deal to sell a new, lower-priced version of its virtual-reality headset in China; deal was struck with Tencent (TCEHY), according to WSJ sources


• 
  News Corp (NWSA) – Q1 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.16 (exp. 0.10), Revenue 2.5bln (exp. 2.47bln).

HEALTH CARE:

• 
  Doximity (DOCS) - Q2 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.22 (exp. 0.17), Revenue 114mln (exp. 109mln); authorized new share repurchases of up 70mln. Raises FY revenue view to 460-472mln (prev. 452-468mln, exp. 463mln), and FY adj. EBITDA view 207-219mln (prev. 193-209mln). Q3 revenue guidance 127-128mln (exp. 122.5mln).


• 
  Hologic (HOLX) – Q4 2023 (USD): EPS 0.89 (exp. 0.84), Revenue 945.3mln (exp. 938.7mln); entered into a 500mln accelerated buyback programme. FY24 adj. EPS view 3.90-4.10 (exp. 3.91), Revenue 3.92-4.02bln (exp. 4.08bln). Q1 EPS view 0.92-0.97 (exp. 0.95), Revenue 960-985mln (exp. 1.01bln).


• 
  Illumina (ILMN) – Q3 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.33 (exp. 0.14), Revenue 1.12bln (exp. 1.13bln). Expects FY23 revenues to fall 2-3% Y/Y (prev. +1%) and GRAIL revenue at the low end of the USD 90-110mln range. FY23 adj. EPS view 0.60-0.70 (prev. 0.75-0.90, exp. 0.83).


• 
  Mettler-Toledo International (MTD) – Q3 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 9.80 (exp. 9.74), Revenue 942.46mln (exp. 949.9mln), Adj. EBIT 287.94mln (exp. 287.94mln). Q4 local currency sales seen declining 7-8% (exp. -2.85%) and Q4 adj. EPS view 10.50-10.70 (exp. 11.94). Cuts FY EPS guide to 39.10-39.30 (prev. 40.30-41.20, exp. 40.65).


• 
  Xenon Pharmaceuticals (XENE) – XENE announced that its partner, Neurocrine (NBIX) reported the Phase 2 clinical trial evaluating NBI-921352 in adult patients with focal onset seizures failed to demonstrate meaningful reduction in seizure frequency. NBIX guided that no further development with NBI-921352 in FOS is planned at this time.

INDUSTRIALS:

• 
  Plug Power (PLUG) - Q3 2023 (USD): EPS -0.47 (exp. -0.30), Revenue 199mln (exp. 200mln).


• 
  Blink Charging (BLNK) – Q3 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS -0.16 (exp. -0.47), Revenue 43.4mln (exp. 30.02mln). FY23 revenue view 128-133mln (exp. 116.63mln), and targets adj. EBITDA break even run rate by Dec ’24.


• 
  Babcock & Wilcox (BW) – Q3 2023 (USD): EPS -0.18 (exp. 0.03), Revenue 239.4mln (exp. 289.45mln).


• 
  Lockheed Martin (LMT) – Awarded USD 238mln Air Force contract action.

TECHNOLOGY:

• 
  TSMC (TSM) - October (TWD): Sales 243.2bln (prev. 180.4bln in Sep.).


• 
  Alarm.com (ALRM) – Q3 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.56 (exp. 0.40), Revenue 221.9mln (exp. 224.07mln), Adj. EBITDA 41.4mln (exp. 31.16mln). Sees Q4 total revenues 878.9-881.1mln (exp. 881.1mln), Adj. EBITDA 143-144mln (exp. 129.91mln), Adj. EPS 1.90-1.92 (prev. 1.69-1.73, exp. 1.70).


• 
  Synaptics (SYNA) – Q1 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.52 (exp. 0.36), Revenue 237.7mln (exp. 230.4mln). Q2 revenue view 220-250mln (exp. 239.82mln), Gross margins 52.5% (exp. 54.5%). In comms., “said starting to see stabilization in our business and expect recovery in calendar 2024 while we continue to work through excess customer inventories”.


• 
  Unity (U) – Q3 2023 (USD): Revenue 544mln (exp. 553.7mln), EBITDA 131mln (exp. 96.3mln). Is not providing Q4 or 2023 guidance as the new CEO evaluates the present structure and prepares to make changes. In other news, U filed to sell USD 1bln in convertible senior notes due 2027.


• 
  SoFi Technologies (SOFI) – CEO bought 44k shares of common stock on November 9th for USD 298k.

CRYPTO:

• BlackRock's Ethereum (ETH) ETF plan is confirmed in Nasdaq filing, according to CoinDesk.

CHINA:

• 
  Country Garden Holdings (2007 HK) - Reportedly aims to inform key bondholders of its cash flow projections by year-end, according to Reuters sources; aims for a tentative plan to restructure offshore debt by year-end. In addition, aims to start formal negotiations with offshore bondholders by February or March next year, sources added.


• 
  ICBC (1398 HK) Financial Services said they experienced a ransomware attack that resulted in disruption to certain FS systems. A such, this disrupted the US Treasury market by stopping China's largest bank from settling Treasury trades.

FINANCIALS:

• 
  Allianz (ALIZY) – Surpassed expectations on operating profit and affirmed FY guidance. Numerically, Q3 2023 (EUR): Operating Profit 3.468bln (exp. 3.22bln); still sees FY operating profit between 13.2-15.2bln.


• 
  Franklin Resources (BEN) – October AUM USD 1.33tln (prev. 1.37tln in Sep.), with the drop due to the impact of negative markets and long-term net outflows.


• 
  Green Dot (GDOT) – Q3 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.14 (exp. 0.21), Revenue 348.6mln (exp. 322.6mln). Cuts FY adj. EPS view to 1.62-1.69 (prev. 1.80-1.90, exp. 1.85).


• 
  Invesco (IVZ) – Prelim. month-end AUM USD 1.45tln, -2.5% M/M; experienced net long-term outflows of approx USD 100mln in October.


• 
  MarketAxess (MKTX) – CFO Gerosa is to step down, effective January 31st 2024; formal search process for the selection of a new CFO has been initiated.


• 
  Assurant (AIZ) – The board authorises a USD 600mln share buyback programme and raises the quarterly dividend 3% to USD 0.72/shr (prev. 0.70).


• 
  AllianceBernstein (AB) – Reports prelim. month-end AUM USD 652bln, -2.5% M/M, primarily due to market depreciation, coupled with net outflows

CONSUMER STAPLES:

• 
  Diageo (DEO) - Cuts forward guidance: Cuts H1 FY24 organic revenue to decline more than 20% (prev. guidance +5-7% Y/Y), Op Profit lower Y/Y (prev. guidance +6-9%). Issues trading update due to a weaker performance outlook in LatAm and Caribbean.


• 
  Flower Foods (FLO) - Q3 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.29 (exp. 0.28), Revenue 1.2bln (exp. 1.21bln). Backs FY23 adj. EPS view 1.18-1.25 (exp. 1.22), but cuts revenue guide to 5.085-5.104bln (prev. 5.095-5.141bln, exp. 5.12bln) and EBITDA to 495-515mln (prev. 503-528mln).

10 Nov 2023 - 09:25- Research Sheet- Source: Newsquawk