US EARLY MORNING: US equity futures dragged lower as oil prices rocket

US equity futures are lower, but off lows (ES -1.5%, NQ -1.7%, RTY -2.0%, YM -1.4%). Global equities have been dragged down at the start of the week as oil prices surged to the highest since 2008 as the US and Europe consider bans on imports of Russian crude; snags in the Iran nuclear talks as well as outages in Libya are adding to upside. Brent and WTI are now trading in the USD 120s per barrel, entering a zone which some analysts argue will drive demand destruction, were prices to remain at these levels in the coming weeks/months. Higher consumer prices ­– adding to the already sharp post-pandemic inflation pressures – have led to fears of stagnation in the Eurozone, and will likely keep ECB officials cautious at their confab this Thursday. The morning data slate features decent German retail sales and industrial orders for January, although traders are seemingly more focussed on geopolitical developments; this may also render the US CPI data due later this week ­– the last before the March 16th FOMC – a secondary focus. Money markets are suggesting there is virtually no chance of the Fed lifting rates by 50bps at the meeting, but do still see a 25bps rate move; five hikes are still fully priced through the end of this year (vs seven before the Ukraine conflict). Treasury yields are a little higher on Monday morning, likely due to the inflationary implications of surging oil and commodity prices; the US will sell 3s, 10s, 30s this week, with the risk bid likely to be influential in how the supply is digested. Risk-off conditions have resulted in USD strength (both USD and crude higher this morning) taking the DXY above 99.00; havens JPY and CHF are not garnering too much of a bid against the Greenback, however – SNB officials again warned on FX levels this morning, reiterating a willingness to intervene if necessary. In EMFX, there is virtually no green on for the pairs we monitor; some Emerging Europe nations have been coordinating FX interventions last week to stabilise their currencies, and desks expect this will continue to feature. Meanwhile, cyclically focussed FX is mixed: GBP and SEK are lower, but CAD is underpinned by oil price moves, trading a touch firmer against the USD, while AUD and NZD are rallying as commodity prices rise and their geographical detachment to the Ukraine situation; they are likely also benefiting from the ‘stable’ economic approach China policymakers are seeking this year. The day ahead is devoid of any A-List scheduled events, so the focus should remain on geopolitical developments.

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07 Mar 2022 - 09:43- EquitiesGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk

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