US EARLY MORNING: US equity futures are slightly higher, Treasury yields wider; geopolitics in focus amid concerns Middle East conflict could spill over into other parts of the region

US PRE-MARKETS: US equity futures are seeing modest gains at the start of the week, although the focus seems to be on fixed income and energy markets. Fears that the conflict between Israel and Hamas could spill over into other parts of the Middle East was stoking crude futures higher in APAC trade, although the complex saw some downside on loose reports of a ceasefire in southern Gaza, coinciding with although Hamas said that it has no information about the humanitarian truce that was agreed upon, and an Israeli official said there was currently no truce and humanitarian aid in Gaza in exchange for getting foreigners out. Yields are higher along the Treasury curve; some analysts have suggested that central banks may be able to look through any temporary upside in crude prices, but any drawn out conflict would need to be factored into policy reactions, and while it might not necessarily lead to any further rate hikes, it could strengthen the higher-for-longer narrative, which may partly explain why global bond yields have been drifting higher in early trade. Equity futures, meanwhile will have more earnings to contend with this week; the corporate earnings slate picks up this week, and includes global bellwethers (TSM, TSLA, NFLX), as well as other key financials (GS, MS, AXP), and consumer names (PM, PG). In terms of data, key highlights this week include US retail sales, China activity data, inflation from NZ, Japan, UK and Canada. 

GEOPOLITCS' IMPACT ON MARKETS: Morgan Stanley says recent geopolitical events in the Middle East have had significant implications for financial markets, and is leading to increased security investments, higher risk premiums for Middle East sovereign credit, and the possibility of rising oil prices, though it notes that the link between oil prices and interest rates is not straightforward. MS says markets are likely to experience unforeseen consequences as these events continue to unfold. MS says that there is a possibility of rising oil prices due to potential supply disruptions in the Middle East, but we should not assume that this will lead to higher interest rates, noting that historically, higher oil prices have had a limited and temporary impact on inflation and have not necessarily prompted central banks to adopt a more aggressive stance.

MS SEES LOWER CHANCE OF Q4 RALLY: Morgan Stanley's equity strategists say weakening breadth and cautious internals are lowering the probability of a Q4 rally. Technicians are noting that the S&P 500 price action is focussed between its 50- and 200-day moving averages, but MS thinks it is more useful for investors to look beneath the surface at equal weight relative performance across sectors and styles. "Here, the signals are weaker and suggest key tactical support is vulnerable," the bank writes, "high FCF, low leverage and low volatility factors continue to lead, corroborating a cautious tone under the surface of the market," and the bank continues to recommend a barbell of defensive growth and late cycle cyclicals on the long side. MS says consumer confidence is fading amid high prices and rising rates, pointing to the University of Michigan's Sentiment Index falling by the largest M/M decline since June of 2022, and specifically, the decline in consumers' assessment of personal finances, while the rise in geopolitical tensions could pressure consumer and corporate confidence further. With regards to earnings, MS observes that earnings revisions breadth for the overall S&P 500 has fallen sharply over the last couple of weeks as we enter Q3 earnings season; Q4 and calendar FY24 EPS estimates have been quite sticky over the past 5-6 months, which MS says continues to imply a meaningful inflection in annualised growth for both periods. "We're now at the point in the calendar year when we look for company guidance to provide more clarity on Q4 expectations, which should in turn set the tone for the 2024 revisions," adding that "the seasonality alone suggests we should see an upward inflection in earnings revisions breadth into year end from here; if we do see that play out, it will be an indication that the recent decline in revisions breadth was largely normal seasonal weakness post conference season and into the quarter." But on the other hand, if revisions underperform seasonality over the coming weeks and continue to decline, MS says it would be a sign that other risks including macro headwinds are driving the earnings revisions backdrop.

GS 2024 US EQUITY SUPPLY/DEMAND: Goldman Sachs introduced its 2024 US equity supply and demand forecasts. The bank said that the recent volatility in the Treasury market had driven increased investor concern over the fiscal position of the US and the supply/demand mismatch for Treasury securities. "Our rates strategists believe increased Treasury supply will not catalyse further upside in yields," it said, "however, the attractive level of yields will continue to entice households to purchase yield-bearing assets rather than equities."  GS notes that similarly, higher rates have improved the funding level of US pension funds, incentivising them to continue selling stocks. GS says corporations will remain the largest source of equity demand in 2024, alongside a rebound in buybacks and cash M&A. It expects foreign investors will also continue net buying US stocks next year.

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16 Oct 2023 - 09:30- Research Sheet- Source: Newsquawk

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