US EARLY MORNING: US equity futures are lower amid caution ahead of this week's key risk events (Fedspeak is heavy today, ahead of Powell on Friday; PCE and ISM due later in the week)

US PREMARKETS: APAC markets were mixed into month-end, European equities opened with a downside bias. US equity futures are lower, with underperformance in the Nasdaq 100 index. Newswire reports cite caution ahead of this week's risk events (which include inflation readings from both the US and Europe, as well as key survey data) and month-end. Treasury yields are a little higher, with the short-end underperforming as the curve bear-steepens slightly; today's docket is packed with Fed officials ahead of remarks due later in the week from Fed Chair Powell (Friday) and NY Fed President Williams (Thursday). Separately, the month-end extension for Treasuries is +0.11yrs according to Bloomberg/Barclays. The Dollar Index is little changed, sitting near three-month lows (Citi said month-end USD selling flows are likely to dominate according to its estimates). Crude futures are trading with some gains, as Thursday's OPEC+ confab comes into focus, and amid reports that the group is said to be looking at deepening oil production cuts despite its meeting being delated over quota disagreements. Today's docket is dominated by Fedspeak (see below). 

FEDSPEAK: This week's heavy slate of Fedspeak kicks-off today with remarks from Vice Chair Barr (voter) who will speak on the Community Reinvestment Act, Governor Bowman (voter) who will speak on monetary policy, Governor Waller (voter) will take part in a moderated discussion, Chicago Fed's President Goolsbee (2023 voter) who will give opening remarks, and the St Louis Fed interim President Paese who will comment on the FedNow Payments System (St Louis is on the 2025 voting rotation). Money market pricing has called the peak in rates this cycle, and are now pricing three full rate cuts by the end of next year, with a decent chance of a fourth too. However, Fed officials are likely to reiterate the message of 'higher-for-longer' and will be cautious about giving any credence to the idea of rate cuts any time soon. The Fed's discount rate minutes are also due for publication today (14:00EST/19:00GMT). Traders will also note that Fed Chair Powell is due to give remarks on Friday at a fireside chat with Governor cook (voter); the influential NY Fed President Williams (voter) is also due to speak this week (Thursday). PCE data (the Fed’s preferred gauge) and ISM data are also on the slate for this week.


DAY AHEAD: The European Day features a heavy speaking slate, with BoE hawk Haskel, Riksbank's Floden, ECB President Lagarde (again) and the ECB chief economist Lane. The US day will see the release of the weekly RedBook (coinciding with the Black Friday week), house price data from the FHFA and CaseShiller, as well as the Conference Board's gauge of consumer confidence in November. The Fedspeak docket is very heavy today (see Fedspeak primer, above), featuring Barr, Bowman, Waller, Goolsbee - all voters. The Fed's Discount Rate minutes are also due for release in the afternoon. Afterhours, the API will release its weekly energy inventory data.










28 Nov 2023 - 09:30- Research Sheet- Source: Newsquawk

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