US EARLY MORNING: US equity futures are around flat ahead of manufacturing ISM and remarks from Fed Chair Powell

TODAY’S AGENDA:

DAY AHEAD: Final manufacturing PMI data out of Europe, and remarks from ECB President Lagarde, and ECB’s Elderson are the highlights. The US day will focus its attention on remarks due from Fed Chair Powell, who is due to speak on two occasions today (one at a Spelman College event, the other is a roundtable discussion with Fed’s Cook (voter) – see below. Elsewhere, the ISM manufacturing report for November is due, where the consensus looks for the headline to rise slightly though remain sub-50; the expected is for the headline to tick-up to 47.7 in November (prev. 46.7); Oxford Economics said that “early indications are that the ISM manufacturing survey bounced back in November but remains below its 2023 high from September (49.0) and squarely in contraction territory.” Canadian jobs data is expected to see the unemployment rate tick up slightly to 5.8%. Weekly Baker Hughes rig count data will be out in the afternoon. On the CRA docket, DBRS will review Germany (currently AAA) and Spain (currently A); S&P will review France (currently AA) and Poland (currently A-); Fitch Ratings may review UK (currently AA-) and Greece's (currently BB+).

POWELL PRIMER: Powell’s remarks come ahead of the blackout window that commences at the end of this week ahead of the December 13th FOMC meeting, where the consensus looks for an unchanged rate decision. Currently, the market is pricing 4-5 rate cuts in 2024, Powell may choose to lean back against that market pricing to prevent any loosening of financial conditions. Powell may push a higher-for-longer message as the Fed still tries to make progress on bringing inflation back to target, and will likely add that the Fed is not thinking about rate cuts at the moment since it is too early to declare victory on prices, and like other officials, he may choose to retain the option of further rate hikes if the situation demands. We’re also due to get another batch of comments from the Fed’s Goolsbee (2023 voter) and Fed’s Barr (voter).

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01 Dec 2023 - 09:30- EquitiesData- Source: Newsquawk

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