US EARLY MORNING: Risk sours amid lack of breakthrough in peace talks

EQUITIES: ES -0.6%, NQ -0.8%, YM -0.5%, RTY -0.6%. US equity futures have been tilting lower in pre-market trade, in line with European counterparts (which shrugged-off constructive leads from Asia and Wall Street). The theme remains geopolitics (the latest: Monday’s peace talks have not achieved any breakthrough, and the Russians said they remain committed to continuing operations until its goals have been met). The NDX is underperforming with technicians noting that its 50dma (15,081) has crossed beneath the 200dma (15,084), setting up a technically bearish outlook for those who believe in such things. Some strategists, however, are beginning to see buying opportunities: JPMorgan’s Kolanovic, for instance, has once again advised buying the dip in a note released Monday, arguing that the Ukraine fallout has only a small impact on US corporate earnings; Kolanavic still sees European equities as underweight, given their vulnerabilities to Russian escalation. But for US names, he says that “indirect risks are more substantial, given effects of higher commodity prices on inflation, growth, and consumers; however, one silver lining is that the crisis forced a dovish reassessment of the Fed by the market.” The market has now priced-out the prospects of a 50bps hike at the March 16th FOMC, with the base case now 25bps.

TREASURIES: Major fixed income markets are bid on the cautious geopolitical tone. Treasury yields have narrowed by 2-4bps, leaving the curve with a slight bull-steepening bias. There may be some influence from the EGBs complex: ECB officials this week have been urging caution, with some even warning about stagflation risks; today, Bund yields narrow by over 10bps (still above zero for now), while Italian BTPs have rallied by almost 20bps – the prospect of a 2022 rate hike appears to be diminishing, and with that, it may imply a more gradual course of balance sheet normalisation. For Treasuries, the narrative may again shift towards more domestic matters, with the release of the key ISM manufacturing report at 10:00EST/15:00GMT; a handful of Fedspeak from the ubiquitous Bostic and Mester; President Biden’s State of the Union will likely have a distinct geopolitical tone later today.

DOLLAR: Despite punchy geopolitical rhetoric, moves in FX have been contained: the Dollar Index is up by around 10bps, and havens JPY and CHF are a touch higher vs the Greenback. Activity currencies are mixed, with the antipodes maintaining a mild bid, but others aren’t too far off neutral. There isn’t much to cheer about on the EMFX screen. SocGen has argued that FX (and equity) markets have so far concluded that the fallout for most parts of the world ex-Russia should be manageable. “The world of exchange rates can currently be split in three segments, from good to bad: the oil/commodity currencies (AUD, NOK, CAD, Latam), those geographically far from the crisis epicentre and safe havens (Asia, Latam, CHF, JPY), and those on the eastern European flank bordering Russia and Ukraine (RUB, CEE3).” SocGen has been impressed by the AUD’s resilience, which seems to have been cheered by China PMI data (RBA overnight was mostly in line). And also notes that the PBoC has recently avoided leaning back on the haven Yuan’s strength, as it moved towards 6.30; “the appreciation suggests foreign trade remains brisk (exporters selling USD), but investor rotation out of eastern Europe into Chinese securities may flatter the recent gains,” SocGen wrote.

COMMODITIES: Crude contracts are adding 3-4 bucks; Brent nears USD 102/bbl, while WTI is flirting with USD 100/bbl. Geopolitical tensions continue to underpin amid uncertainty about Russian supply. ING said it believes that the market has priced in some limited supply disruptions, but certainly not a scenario of sanctions on energy exports, and accordingly, this leaves further upside risks if the situation was to deteriorate. In reaction to the higher prices, the IEA is likely to announce an internationally coordinated release of strategic reserves (sources guide between 60-70mln bbls), though ING thinks this will only provide short-term reprieve. OPEC’s technical meetings get under way today ahead of the ministerial meeting on Wednesday, and so far, analysts think the group will remain steady in its policy of easing supply curbs by 400k BPD per month. Elsewhere, Iran nuclear deal is edging closer, but this morning’s commentary reminds us that there are still some outstanding issues that could hold things up.

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01 Mar 2022 - 10:08- EnergyGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk

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