US EARLY MORNING: Markets tread water ahead of the Fed and ECB heads' Jackson Hole commentary

US PRE-MARKETS:

PRIMER - POWELL AT JACKSON HOLE (15:05BST/10:05EDT): Traders will be looking for clues from Chair Powell as to whether the Fed is near the end of its hiking cycle; Powell is likely to endorse a data-dependent approach, while emphasising the resilience of the US economy. Traders will also be looking to his remarks for any commentary on the r-star rate, to see if Fed officials think this has moved upwards, and whether that implies a higher-for-longer monetary policy outcome. Powell may skirt any near-term guidance on rates, choosing not to pre-judge the outcome of the September FOMC; analysts also think that he may highlight that even when the Fed is done with hikes, policy rates will remain in restrictive territory for some time. Our full Jackson Hole primer, previewing speeches from ECB President Lagarde as well as Fed Chair Powell can be accessed here; a full schedule of events can be accessed here.

PRIMER - LAGARDE AT JACKSON HOLE (20:00BST/15:00EDT): With several weeks until the ECB announcement, and ahead of next week’s key August flash HICP data, President Lagarde has very little to gain by pre-empting the September 14th confab, or the October 26th meeting, reiterating data-dependence. Referring back to the July meeting, and awaiting the September macroeconomic projections will likely underpin her speeches. Our full Jackson Hole primer, previewing speeches from ECB President Lagarde as well as Fed Chair Powell can be accessed here; a full schedule of events can be accessed here.

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25 Aug 2023 - 09:30- Fixed IncomeData- Source: Newsquawk

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