US EARLY MORNING: Index futures lower after 'hawkish' Brainard stokes yields higher; FOMC minutes eyed later

EQUITIES: US index futures are softer (RTY -0.4%, YM -0.4%, ES -0.5%, NQ -0.7%), with tech names suffering as US yields climb following ‘hawkish’ commentary by Fed Governor Brainard on Tuesday. For equities, this takes the ES to the low-end of the sideways range we have been patrolling over the last nine sessions, bringing the 200dma around 4,484 back into focus. Analysts have suggested this sideways trade will continue until we have fresh catalysts. The near-term catalysts on our radar include: Fed monpol (pace of the balance sheet tightening – we know it will be quicker than the last time around, and Chair Powell wants it to be a process that ‘runs in the background’), ECB monpol (minutes due Thursday, confab next week – officials’ view on the timing of rate hikes is key), Ukraine-Russia updates (so far, the fallout has been limited for US corporates, though presents inflationary headwinds and by extension potential margin revisions), inflation progress (CPI report next week), earnings season (gets going next week when banks begin reporting – Deutsche Bank told its clients Tuesday that it expects above-average beats in Q1, noting that consensus estimates for earnings have held firm in the face of higher inflation, tightening monpol and Russia-Ukraine geopolitics), European politics (Le Pen gaining ground in the French election polls, raising risks of fiscal disruption and cooler tone towards Europe).

TREASURIES: Yields are higher by 4-8bps across the curve, and curve spreads are once again mixed – widening shorter-dated spreads, and a narrowing of longer-dated spreads, alluding to short-term inflationary pressures and longer-term growth concerns. Fed Governor Brainard’s (the Vice Chair in Waiting) remarks were framed as hawkish, but this may be a framing based on her own history rather than what others on the Fed have expressed. Brainard said that the balance sheet drawdown will be more rapid versus the Fed’s previous QT, which would help bring policy into a more neutral stance, after which further tightening can be implemented as needed. This implies that she has not yet decided whether rates should be brought above the so-called neutral level. Additionally, her remarks on the balance sheet are consistent with the light guidance already provided by Chair Powell – he has suggested that although the process will be quicker than last time, he does not want it to be the cause of any market disruption, and it will be a process that ‘runs in the background’. Traders will be looking for more clues around this theme within the release of the March meeting minutes, due 19:00BST/14:00EDT today (our preview is here). Currently, money markets imply a 83% chance of a 50bps ate hike in May, and has fully priced the Fed lifting rates to between 2.25-2.50 by end-2022, with some risks of a move to 2.50-2.75% (note: the Fed’s latest projections made in March pencilled in a rise to 1.75-2.00% by the end of the year). Our ‘Day Ahead’ calendar can be accessed here.

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06 Apr 2022 - 09:45- EquitiesBank Speaker- Source: Newsquawk

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