US EARLY MORNING: Index futures are trading firmly; ECB minutes, Jackson Hole ahead

US index futures are higher, picking up in pre-market traded in sympathy with European counterparts. There aren’t any compelling explanations as to why we are seeing this constructive tone of equity trading, and there weren’t any specific headline catalysts explaining the European action. There has been an extension of the gains in Europe after better-than-feared Ifo survey data out of Germany, while a second look at German growth in Q2 saw upward revisions. Treasury yields are narrowing by 2-3bps, though major curve spreads are mixed. The Dollar Index continues to give back some of the recent gains, and the EUR currency has risen to levels just under parity; some desks have been framing the weakness in the Chinese currency as potentially supportive for global inflation dynamics (makes imports from China cheaper). Nevertheless, the narrative is indistinct at this stage, and is certainly subject to headwinds from Jackson Hole (where policymakers are expected to reiterate hawkish views). Crude benchmarks are higher amid news that the US rejected all the additional conditions requested by Iran and urged Iran to lift any restrictions on international inspections, according to Al Arabiya, but this story has come under scrutiny after the WSJ suggested that the claim was false and that Iran has just started studying the response. For today, the day ahead includes UK CBI Distributive Trades for August, CBRT meeting minutes, ECB meeting minutes (primer here), a second look at US GDP in Q2, weekly initial jobless claims out of the US, NatGas inventories, and the KC regional manufacturing report. Supply comes by way of a 2024 BTP from Italy, a 2025 Gilt out of the UK, and a 7yr note out of the US. Full Day Ahead here.

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25 Aug 2022 - 09:23- Exclusive- Source: Newsquawk

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