US EARLY MORNING: Equity futures rallying on reports Russia is pulling back troops while havens & crude take a hit

Equity futures are rallying with Nasdaq outperforming despite the move higher in yields. Focus this morning is on the apparent easing of Russia/Ukraine tensions after reports that Russia’s military has concluded its month of drills and troops are now expected to return to bases. The report this morning has helped ease fears seen in the afternoon yesterday and comes ahead of a meeting between Russian President Putin and German Chancellor Scholz. The improved sentiment saw both WTI and Brent head to session lows with WTI now sub USD 93/bbl and brent c. USD 94.00/bbl as some of the geopolitical risk premium is priced out. Havens also saw outflows, with DXY, JPY, and CHF all seeing weakness while Treasuries saw pronounced selling pressure, as did gold while RUB is the EM outperformer. Aside from geopolitics, overnight saw the PBoC inject CNY 300bln via 1yr MLF with the rate maintained at 2.85% despite some expecting a cut to the rate, while it also injected CNY 10bln through 7-day reverse repos, which also saw the rate maintained at 2.1%. Elsewhere, the RBA Minutes saw the RBA reiterate its patient stance, stating it is prepared to be patient as it monitors how the various factors affecting inflation evolve while it gave no mention to the plausibility of a rate hike this year. Looking ahead, focus will be on the US PPI data for January, although after the hot CPI report it will likely take some of the sting out of the release if it comes in hotter than expected. We also get the NY Fed Manufacturing report for February for another look into February to see if the weak January data is filtering through. Note, the preliminary February UoM survey heavily disappointed while the IBD/TIPP economic optimism also fell from the prior. There are no Fed speakers scheduled, but any unscheduled speakers will be kept on the radar ahead of the FOMC minutes Wednesday (preview here) where we look for any hints on balance sheet run off and remarks around a 50bp move in March.

DAY AHEAD

• 10:00GMT/05:00EST: German ZEW Economic Senitiment (Feb)


• 10:00GMT/05:00EST: EU GDP Flash Estimate (Q4)


• 12:00 UK/07:00 US: Fidelity National Information Services Inc (FIS)


• 12:00 UK/07:00 US: Zoetis Inc (ZTS)


• 12:00 UK/07:00 US: Marriott International Inc (MAR)


• 13:30 UK/08:30 US: Ecolab Inc (ECL)


• 13:30GMT/08:30EST: US PPI (Jan)


• 13:30GMT/08:30EST: US NY Fed Manufacturing (Feb)


• 14:00GMT/09:00EST: ECB Asset Purchases


• 21:00GMT/16:00EST: US Foreign Buying, T-Bonds & TIC flows (Dec.)


• 21:05 UK/16:05 US: Airbnb Inc (ABNB)


• 21:05 UK/16:05 US: Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN)


• 21:05 UK/16:05 US: Devon Energy Corp (DVN)


• 21:30GMT/16:30EST: US Private Energy Inventories


• 23:00 UK/18:00 US: ViacomCBS Inc (VIAC)


• Full Newsquawk calendar here.


• Full Newsquawk earnings calendar here.

EQUITY NEWS

Financials

• Federal investigators are probing block trading at Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS) and several hedge funds; examining whether bankers may have improperly tipped hedge-fund clients in advance of large share sales. (WSJ)

Staples

• Monster (MNST) and Constellation Brands (STZ) talks are reportedly progressing, although a deal could still fall through (BBG)

Health Care

• Novavax (NVAX) COVID vaccine receives interim approval in Singapore, first batch expected in the next few months. (Rtrs)


• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) bankruptcy strategy to end babby-powder lawsuits faces a fresh trial this week. (BBG)


• Humana has been selected by the Selected by Louisiana Health Department to serve Medicaid beneficiaries. (Humana)


• Merck (MRK)/AstraZeneca (AZN) report positive results from the PROpel Phase III trial; Lynparza and Abiraterone was well tolerated and allowed patients to maintain their quality of life vs. patients treated with abiraterone alone. (AstraZeneca)


• Bristol Myers (BMY) and Exelixis (EXEL) provide updated results on Phase 3 CheckMater – 9ER trial which demonstrates continued survival benefits. (Businesswire)


• Eli-Lilly (LLY) has been awarded a USD 1.08bln Army contract. (DoD)

Technology

• Intel (INTC) buys Israel’s Tower Semiconductor for USD 5.4bln, sources suggested USD 6bln beforehand. (Businesswire/Rtrs)


• ADP (ADP) names David Goeckeler, Western Digital (WDC) CEO), to its Board of Directors. (PR Newswire)


• Intuit (INTU) Q2 revenue view of USD 2.660-2.665bln (exp. 2.74bln, prev. 2.72-2.75bln); expects Q2 revenue to reflect slower forming tax season. Reiterates FY22 revenue of 12.165-12.3bln (exp. 12.27bln). (Businesswire)


• Arista Networks Inc (ANET) Q4 2021 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.82 (exp. 0.73), Revenue 0.825bln (exp. 789.10mln). Q1 revenue view 0.84-0.86bln (exp. 0.832bln). (Businesswire)

Real Estate

• Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) Q4 2021 (USD): FFO 0.73 (exp. 0.74), revenue 0.421bln (exp. 0.414bln). (Vornado)

Discretionary

• Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) Q4 2021 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.07 (exp. 1.96), Revenue 2.4bln (exp. 2.37bln). FY22 EPS view 13.20-13.75 (exp. 13.27), FY Revenue view 11.2-11.5bln (exp. 11.17bln). (Businesswire)


• Tesla (TSLA) CEO Musk donated over USD 5.7bln in Tesla (TSLA) shares to charity in November. (Rtrs)


• Gambling Names (DKNG, PENN)- Online sports betting firms say the recent Super Bowl saw a record number of first-time users sign up and that the event was the most bet on Super Bowl to date. (FT)


• Investors load up on Peloton (PTON) as stock tumbles. (Rtrs)

Energy

• Continental Resources (CLR) Q4 21 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.79 (exp. 1.69), revenue 1.93bln (exp. 1.71bln). FY22 CapEx view 2.3bln. Raises dividend to USD 0.23/shr, increasing share buyback to USD 1.5bln from USD 1.0bln. (PR Newswire)

Industrials

• Avis Budget (CAR) Q4 21 (USD): Adj. EPS 7.08 (exp. 6.15), revenue 2.57bln (exp. 2.41bln). (Globe Newswire)


• Air Lease Corp (AL) will lease 25 Boeing (BA) 737 MAX jets to Malaysia Airlines' parent to be delivered between early 2023 and 2026. (Rtrs)


• Whirlpool (WHR) raises quarterly dividend by 25% and share repurchase program authorization by USD 2bln. (PR Newswire)


• Lockheed Martin's (LMT) exit from the Aerojet Rocketdyne (AJRD) deal has refocused investors on the compounding list of problems at both companies. (Rtrs)

Communication

• AMC Entertainment (AMC) announces closing of senior secured notes offering and is taking a significant step forward by lowering interest expenses and extending debt maturities out to 2029. (Businesswire)

13-F’s

Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway

• New Buy: Activision Blizzard (ATVI), Nu Holdings (NU)


• Raises stake: Chevron (CVX), Floor & Decor Holdings (FND), RH (RH)


• Cuts stake: Marsh & McLennan (MMC), AbbVie (ABBV), Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), Visa (V), Charter (CHTR), Mastercard (MA), Kroger (KR)


• Exits: SiriusXM (SIRI), Teva (TEVA)

David Tepper’s Appaloosa

• New Buy: Nordstrom (JWN), Foot Locker (FL), General Motors (GM), Gap (GPS), Dicks (DKS)


• Raise stake: EQT Corp (EQT), Macy’s (M), Energy Transfer (ET), Kohls (KSS), Mosaic (MOS)


• Cuts stake: Uber (UBER), Allicane Data Systems (ADS), T-Mobile (TMUS), Google (GOOG), DR Horton (DHI), PG&E (PCG), Pulte (PHM), Occidental (OXY)


• Exits: HCA Health (HCA), Alibaba (BABA), Walmart (WMT), Visa (V), Twitter (TWTR), Paysafe (PSFE), Qualcomm (QCOM), Master Card (MA)

Carl Icahn’s Icahn Enterprises (IEP)

• New Buy: N/A


• Raise stake: Icahn Enterprises (IEP), Southwest Gas Holdings (SWX), Xerox (XRX), Bausch Health (BHC)


• Cuts stake: Delek (DK), Herc Holdings (HRI)


• Exits: Cloudera (CLDR)

Paul Singer’s Elliott Management

• New Buy: Switch (SWCH), Puts in Apple (AAPL)


• Raises stake: Santander Consumer Holdings (SC), Valaris (VAL)


• Cuts stake: Arconic (ARNC), Dell Tech (DELL), Evergy (EVRG), Peabody Energy (BTU)


• Exits stake: Ryanair (RYAAY), Public Storage (PSA), Calls in Twitter (TWTR), Frontier Communications (FYBR), Puts in Snap (SNAP)

Jeffrey Smith’s Starboard Vale

• New Buy: GoDaddy (GDDY),


• Raises stake: Elanco (ELAN), System1 (SST), CommVault (CVLT)


• Cuts stake: Corteva (CTVA), ON Semiconductor (ON), Merit Medical (MMSI)


• Exits Stake: CommScore (COMM), Box Inc (BOX)

Dan Loeb’s Third Point

• New Buy: Hertz (HTZ), Rivian (RIVN), EQT Corp (EQT), Opendoor Tech (OPEN), Accenture (ACN), Comcast (CMCSA), Expedia (EXPE), Zendesk (ZEN), Coupa Software (COUP)


• Raises Stake: Amazon (AMZN), Intuit (INTU), UnitedHealth (UNH), RH (RH), and Danaher (DHR), DuPont (DD), Catalent (CTLT), CF Industries (CF), IQVIA (IQV), Grab Finance (GRAB)


• Cuts stake: Disney (DIS), Upstart (UPST), Dell (DELL), PG&E (PCG), Burlington (BURL)


• Exits stake: Estee Lauder (EL), Visa (V), Meta (FB), Suncor (SU), Didi (DIDI), Zimmer Biomet (ZBH)

David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital

• New buy: Groupon (GPN), Discover (DISCA), Intel (INTC), Puts in Tesla (TSLA), Cassava Sciences (SAVA), Astra Space (ASTR)


• Raises stake: Victoria Secret (VSCO), LivaNova (LIVN), Capri Holdings (CPRI), Jack in the Box (JACK), Office Depot (ODP), Sonos (SONO), Change Healthcare (CHNG).


• Cuts stake: Danimer (DNMR), Twitter (TWTR), Chemours (CC), Teck Resources (TECK), GoPro (GPRO),


• Exits stake: Adamis (ADMP), AerCap (AER), XOG, Expedia (EXPE), FuboTV (FUBO)

John Paulson’s Paulson & Co.

• New buy: Tellurian (TELL), Athene Holding (ATH), Cerner (CERN), KWEB


• Raises stake: SSR Mining (SSRM), Pacira BioSciences (PCRX)


• Cuts stake: DiDi (DIDI), Horizon Therapeutics (HZNP), Thryv Holdings (THRY), BrightSphere Investment (BSIG)


• Exits stake: Viatris (VTRS), Kansas City (KSU), Cloudera (CLDR)

15 Feb 2022 - 09:44- Research Sheet- Source: Newsquawk