US EARLY MORNING: Equity futures are mixed ahead of manufacturing ISM, Fedspeak, ECBspeak

US equity futures have given up overnight gains, and are currently trading mixed around the unchanged mark (YM +0.2%, RTY +0.0%, ES +0.0%, NQ -0.4%) ahead of today’s key data and economic releases (ISM manufacturing, BoC) and Fedspeak (2022 voters Williams and Bullard). There are also a lot of ECB speakers ahead of the one-week pre-meeting blackout window, which kicks in on Thursday (both Chief Economist Lane and President Lagarde are due, amongst others). Accordingly, it appears that inflation and growth themes will be in focus, particularly as the final May manufacturing PMI data from S&P Global are also being released today. The monthly OPEC meetings are also taking place, although the consensus is for policy to be kept steady in June. Focussing on the US, the manufacturing ISM is seen falling to 54.5 in May vs 55.4 in April. Analysts note that the regional Fed manufacturing surveys have fallen-off recently, with the NY Fed, Philadelphia Fed and the Richmond Fed's gauges all lingering around post-pandemic lows. Credit Suisse notes that global supply chains are likely to remain under pressure, which should worsen the growth slowdown, but also provide a boost to headline ISM due to longer supplier-delivery times. The bank also notes that industrial production has been resilient recently, despite some of the shocks this year, like the COVID lockdowns in China and Russia's invasion of Ukraine; that said, it argues that while it is not expecting a sharp decline in US manufacturing, the recent outperformance is likely unsustainable and a slowdown remains its base case. NOTE: ADP jobs data for May, which is usually released on the Wednesday before the official BLS jobs report, will instead be released Thursday on account of the Memorial Day holiday on Monday. In Canada, the BoC will likely lift rates by 50bps to 1.50% today, but some desks are not ruling out a larger 75bps rate rise given recent inflation pressures. Our BoC preview can be accessed here.

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01 Jun 2022 - 09:26- Data- Source: Newsquawk

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