US EARLY MORNING: Equity futures are a tad lower; yield spike pauses

EQUITIES: APAC equities traded higher after a positive lead from Wall Street; European bourses opened on the front foot, but gains are being pared as the morning progresses. US index futures are trading marginally negative. The VIX has continued to ease over the last seven trading sessions, now trading in the low-23s, and some desks have been advising their clients to load-up on downside protection, with the cost of hedging cheapening in recent days amid the upside in stocks, and as positioning surveys show institutional investors reducing exposure to stocks recently. Bank of America’s equity strategists said they do not see recent risk-on trading conditions as a “rallying cry”, but instead an opportunity to reload on hedges. Others have noted that the VIX curve is flat going into the end of this year, which some interpret as a sign that trading conditions could remain choppy through 2022. There is also risk events on the radar that threaten recent gains in equities, as many have widely noted recently: the Fed is on a trajectory to tighten policy significantly this year, which some fear could hit growth and particularly weigh on duration sensitive stocks; inflation continues to run rampant crimping Americans’ purchasing power – the wages metrics in next week’s NFP report will be eyed, with some arguing that if there is evidence of strong second-round effects, it may compel the Fed to hike rates above its estimates of neutral this year. Elsewhere, the Russia-Ukraine War is also showing no signs of any short-term resolution, and while financial market exposure to Russia is minimal, it still presents risks of disruption, particularly in energy markets; US President Biden will be in Europe on Thursday meeting with regional allies, and is expected to announce further sanctions, although reports suggest that an exclusion from G20 is not likely at this point.

TREASURIES: Treasuries have seen a gradual bid overnight, and yields are towards lows for the session, with major curves marginally widening. There doesn’t appear to be any specific catalyst; Natixis’ strategists have pointed out that markets can have a tendency to overshoot (Bloomberg notes that yields have this week surged in a way that has not been seen since the credit crisis of 2007-08), and what we may be seeing is some settling before other risk events – like Biden’s visit to Europe tomorrow, more clarity around Fed policy (magnitude of the May hike, aggression of the balance sheet reduction, etc - next week's data will help shape expectations), while others also note that the mid-term elections in November are beginning to come into focus, which may also shape the way the US administration can respond to events. But none of these matters are likely to be resolved today; we do have another dose of Fedspeak by way of 2022 voting hawk Bullard and 2024 voter Daly; both have spoken recently, so it is unlikely that they'll be adding anything significant to the debate today. Other data releases are scant. The US will auction 20yr bonds in the afternoon. Full Day Ahead here

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23 Mar 2022 - 09:19- EnergyResearch Sheet- Source: Newsquawk

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