US EARLY MORNING: Equity futures are a little lower; tech in focus after ORCL slides, AAPL iPhone launch ahead

US PRE-MARKETS: US equity futures are slightly red, Treasury yields are mixed but not too far off unchanged levels, while the Dollar Index is a little firmer, and crude futures are a touch higher. Focus is beginning to shift onto Wednesday's CPI data, which is not likely to change the dial too much for the Fed's September 20th meeting. But with that said, the NY Fed's gauge of consumer expectations this week highlighted that the path to lower inflation is unlikely to be linear, and has somewhat vindicated officials' stringent focus on price pressures even in the face of growth potentially falling off ahead. For today, however, the focus will likely be on tech given Oracle's (ORCL) 9% slide afterhours after some aspects of their quarterly earnings disappointed expectations. Additionally, Apple's (AAPL) highly anticipated product event will take place in the afternoon, where it is expected to unveil a new iPhone device (brief primer below).

PREVIEW - APPLE EVENT (13:00EDT/18:00BST): - Apple's iPhone 15 event is expected to unveil four new iPhone models, possibly with USB-C charging ports to comply with European regulations. Pro models may feature lighter titanium casings, and lower-end models could have a new design. Improvements in cameras and chips are anticipated. Apple Watch Series 8 and the high-end Ultra may receive updates, focusing on improved chips and health sensors. Accessories may shift to USB-C. iOS 17 will introduce features like a revamped caller ID, better autocorrect, a Journal app, and offline Apple Maps. Expect exciting changes in Apple's latest offerings. Watch the event here.

FUND MANAGER SURVEY: Bank of America's latest Fund Manager Survey revealed that investors are no longer extremely bearish, with equity allocation rising to a 17-month high. That said, fund managers are not yet bullish, with cash levels up to 4.9%. BofA notes a shift in relative exposures, with a record jump in US and a record fall in EM equities, as China growth optimism slumps. In terms of conviction views: 74% of fund managers said it was a "soft or no landing" environment; 75% say "short rates to fall"; none expect China growth to strengthen; Japan stocks see the largest overweight since December 2018; 77% are "long quality"; 55% think "US tech is most crowded trade". On the macro environment, a net -53% are pessimistic on global growth, but just 21% say hard landing is likely, while 27% expect no recession at all, BofA says. The survey finds that inflation expectations have jumped to highest since May 2022, and sticky inflation and hawkish central banks is still seen as the biggest "tail risk" according to 40% of those surveyed. On monetary policy, six out of 10 fund managers say the "Fed is done" (vs nine in ten in July), and 74% say first Fed rate cut will be in Q2 2024 or H2 2024. On China, just 15% expect a fiscal "bazooka" and investors see China real estate as the number one source for next global credit event.

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12 Sep 2023 - 09:30- EquitiesData- Source: Newsquawk

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