US BLS cancels October CPI report, will publish the November 2025 CPI on December 18th, 2025.

• This news release and database update will not include 1-month percent changes for November 2025 where the October 2025 data are missing.

Full Post

• BLS could not collect October 2025 reference period survey data due to a lapse in appropriations. BLS is unable to retroactively collect these data. For a few indexes, BLS uses nonsurvey data sources instead of survey data to make the index calculations. BLS is able to retroactively acquire most of the non-survey data for October. Where possible, BLS will publish October 2025 values for these series with the release of November 2025 data.


• BLS will publish the November 2025 CPI news release on December 18, 2025. This news release and database update will not include 1-month percent changes for November 2025 where the October 2025 data are missing.


• With the November release, BLS will also finalize fourth quarter 2024 Chained CPI-U data series values and update 2025 first quarter through third quarter values. BLS has not yet determined a publication date for special research series, such as the CPI for new tenant rent and CPI for all tenant regressed rent.

Reaction details (16:16)

• Money market pricing saw a slightly hawkish reaction.


• December implies 15bps of easing, vs 16.5bps pre-update.

Analysis details (16:11)

• This is also after the 10th December FOMC. The Fed will not have access to inflation or labour market data until after the meeting.


• In October, Fed Chair Powell gave a driving in the fog analogy, where it is best to slow down when visibility is not clear.


• It is easier for the Fed to have a gauge of the labour market due to private surveys like ADP, however, their gauge of inflation over the government shutdown has been extremely limited.


• When the NFP reports were delayed, there was a marked hawkish repricing for December rate cut expectations as the Fed remain in the dark going into December.


• Note, earlier in the session there was a notable dovish repricing in Fed money markets after a dovish Williams speech.

21 Nov 2025 - 16:08- Fixed IncomeData- Source: BLS