UK GDP Estimate MM (Feb) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.10% (Prev. 0.20%, Rev. 0.3%)

• Production output grew by 1.1% in February 2024 and was the largest contributor to the rise in GDP in February. Services output also grew, by 0.1%, while construction partially offset these with a fall of 1.9%.

Production (+1.1%)

• Mining and quarrying output was the only subsector that contributed negatively; -0.8%.


• Driven by a 1.2% increase in manufacturing output.

Services (+0.1%)

• Output in 8 of the 14 subsectors rising over this period.


• Largest contribution (subsector) was transport/storage which benefitted from a one-off reclassification.

Construction (-1.9%)

• Eight out of the nine sectors saw a decrease on the month.


• Anecdotal evidence suggests heavy rainfall delayed planned work and decreased output in the month.

via ONS

Reaction details (07:05)

• No sustained or pronounced reaction in GBP to the release.


• At 07:30BST when market pricing opened reaction was very limited with markets still not quite pricing in two 2024 rate cuts. 

Analysis details (07:16)

• Overall, the data does not change the near-term calculus for the BoE. Though on the margin the slightly stronger than expected outturn for January, particularly as the downside in construction was largely a result of weather-related disruptions, gives the BoE more scope to continue traversing the Table Mountain and be in no hurry to commence the easing cycle.


• As such, we might see a slight hawkish move in BoE pricing when this opens at 07:30BST. More broadly, markets will be keenly awaiting next week's Inflation, Retail & Jobs data from the UK for further insight; not to mention any fresh developments on the US front given recent hawkish re-pricing and the reverberation of this to markets more broadly.

12 Apr 2024 - 07:00- Fixed IncomeData- Source: Newswires/ONS