UK CPI YY* (Jan) 4.0% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.0%); All Services 6.5% (prev. 6.4%, BoE guided 6.6%)

ONS

• "The largest upward contribution to the monthly change in both CPIH and CPI annual rates came from housing and household services (principally higher gas and electricity charges), while the largest downward contribution came from furniture and household goods, and food and non-alcoholic beverages."

Reaction details (07:06)

• A cooler-than-expected release which saw GBP/USD fall from 1.2605 to 1.2559 over a five minute period, at the same time Bund Mar'24 lifted from 133.03 to 133.18 before extending to 133.22.

Market Pricing, via Reuters (07:30GMT)

• March -1bp (prev. 0bps)


• May -8bps (prev. -2bps)


• August -29bps (prev. -21bps)


• September -43bps (prev. -31bps)


• 2024 -69bps (prev. -58bps)

Analysis details (07:11)

• A cooler than expected outrun for CPI which works in favour of the MPC, particularly dove-Dhingra, but the uptick in All Services CPI (though shy of the BoE's forecast) means the Table Mountain approach is likely to remain in the near term.


• Reminder, the release follows Tuesday's heavily-caveated unemployment/wage data and comes ahead of GDP on Thursday (technical recession possible, Bailey has already diminished the importance of this) and thereafter Retail Sales on Friday.

14 Feb 2024 - 07:00- Fixed IncomeData- Source: Reuters