TREASURY WRAP: T-NOTE FUTURES (M6) SETTLE 15+ TICKS HIGHER AT 111-28+

Analysis details (19:25)

T-notes rise across the curve as oil prices slide. At settlement, 2-year -4.9bps at 3.680%, 3-year -5.8bps at 3.689%, 5-year -6.6bps at 3.802%, 7-year -6.8bps at 3.996%, 10-year -6.3bps at 4.220%, 20-year -6.0bps at 4.834%, 30-year -5.1bps at 4.857%.

THE DAY: T-notes were firmer across the curve on Monday as oil prices eased with seemingly no fresh escalations in the war, while Trump looks to secure the Strait of Hormuz through a coalition, albeit details remain light. Regarding the movement higher in yields over recent weeks, Goldman Sachs thinks risks around yields are increasingly tilted to the downside. The desk revised their front-end yield forecasts to reflect a later profile of Fed cuts, but sees yields ending the year slightly lower than previously, with their end-2026 forecasts of 3.2% 2y and 4.1% 10y UST yields below the forwards. Morgan Stanley had also been talking about the potential demand destruction induced reversal towards lower rates. The sell-side commentary and move lower in crude prices seemingly supported T-Note trade on Monday amid a lack of key data, while attention turns to the Fed on Wednesday. On data, US Industrial Production slightly beat expectations alongside the Manufacturing output; meanwhile, the NY Fed manufacturing survey disappointed expectations. Although geopolitics remains in focus, there are plenty of central bank decisions due this week, including the Fed, BoJ, BoE, ECB, and SNB. 

SUPPLY

Notes

• US to sell USD 13bln of 20-year bonds on March 17th and USD 19bln of 10-year TIPS on March 19th; all to settle March 31st

Bills

• US sold 6-month bills at a high rate of 3.570%, B/C 2.64x; sold 3-month bills at right rate of 3.610%, B/C 2.94x


• US to sell USD 86bln of 6-week bills and USD 50bln of 52-week bills on March 17th; all to settle March 19th.

STIRS/OPERATIONS

• Fed Rate Cut Pricing: March 0bps (prev. 0bps), April 0bps (prev. 0bps), June 3.9bps (prev. 4.4bps), December 24.1bps (prev. 20.4bps).


• NY Fed RRP op demand at 0.58bln (prev. 0.43bln) across 9 counterparties (prev. 4) on March 16th


• SOFR at 3.65% (prev. 3.65%), volumes at USD 3.164tln (prev. USD 3.112tln) on March 13th


• EFFR at 3.64% (prev. 3.64%), volumes at USD 92bln (prev. USD 99bln) on March 13th

16 Mar 2026 - 19:25- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk