TREASURY WRAP: T-NOTE FUTURES (M6) SETTLE 14+ TICKS LOWER AT 111-17+

Analysis details (19:52)

Yields are higher on escalating geopolitics, and as Fed Chair Powell says, rate hikes were discussed. 2-year +8.2bps at 3.760%, 3-year +8.6bps at 3.765%, 5-year +8.1bps at 3.869%, 7-year +7.4bps at 4.053%, 10-year +6.1bps at 4.261%, 20-year +4.9bps at 4.864%, 30-year +4.0bps at 4.883%.

THE DAY: T-notes saw two-way trade but sold off in the US session as oil prices surged after Israel attacked the South Pars gas field in Iran, the largest gas field in the world, reigniting the inflationary concerns seen in recent weeks. Meanwhile, the US PPI data came in hotter than expected, keeping T-notes pressured ahead of the Fed. The Fed ultimately left rates unchanged in an 11-1 vote split, with only Miran opting to cut rates by 25bps. The median dot plots were largely unchanged, apart from a slight move higher in the long-run dot. Inflation and growth forecasts were raised while unemployment was unchanged, apart from a revision higher to 2027. Some pressure in T-notes was seen throughout Powell's press conference, where he said the Fed will not look through energy price spikes lightly, while also revealing that rate hikes were discussed at today's meeting, but it is not the base case for the vast majority. These comments saw yields move higher, but also supporting the move was the post-settlement gains in oil after Qatar announced Iran struck the Ras Laffan Industrial complex and extensive damage was caused. 

SUPPLY

Notes

• US to sell USD 19bln of 10-year TIPS on March 19th; all to settle March 31st

Bills

• US sold 17-week bills at a high rate of 3.610%, B/C 3.05x

STIRS/OPERATIONS

• Fed Rate Cut Pricing: April +2.3bps (prev. +1.3bps), June +1.1bps (prev. -2.2bps), July -3.5bps (prev. -6.2bps), December -15.4bps (prev. -19.4bps); Priors are pre-FOMC.


• NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 0.698bln (prev. 0.797bln) across 6 counterparties (prev. 5)


• SOFR at 3.65% (prev. 3.70%), volumes at USD 3.146tln (prev. USD 3.178tln) on March 17th


• EFFR at 3.64% (prev. 3.64%), volumes at USD 93bln (prev. USD 88bln) on March 17th

18 Mar 2026 - 19:52- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk