Swedish CPIF Ex Energy YY (Mar) 2.9% vs. Exp. 3.20% (Prev. 3.50%)

Reaction details (07:18)

• A cooler than expected release which has resulted in SEK pressure, sending EUR/SEK higher from 11.4980 to 11.5100 in an immediate reaction before extending to a session high of 11.5290 around 15-minutes later.

Analysis details (07:25)

• The Riksbank had forecast 3.3%.


• A cooler inflation print than either markets or the Riksbank had expected which will add support to those looking for a May (vs June) first rate cut. 


• However, justified conviction for a May cut after this cool print is muddied by recent Fed hawkishness; a point Jansson spoke about on Thursday where he said, assuming "the development of inflation does not deteriorate" that the threat to a May cut will instead come "mainly from the postponement of the easing plans of other central banks". Additionally, the SEK has been weakening gradually since early-March which poses another headwind to the Riksbank cutting in May; as this would see them front-run the ECB (likely to cut in June, sources say could then pause in July) and Fed (pricing between Sep./Nov. for the first cut).

12 Apr 2024 - 07:00- EnergyImportant- Source: Newswires