[ROLLING ANALYSIS] Trade/Tariff update

THE LATEST

BROADER TARIFFS

• US President Trump said they have spoken to 90 countries regarding tariffs already.


• Trump said if they don't have a deal, they will set tariffs.
  


• White House Economic Advisor Hassett said the USTR has 14 meetings scheduled this week with foreign trade ministers and there are 18 written offers from trade ministers, while he stated China is open to talks.

AUTO TARIFFS

• It was earlier reported that US President Trump is to exempt carmakers from some US tariffs in which he was said to be planning to spare carmakers from some of his most onerous tariffs, in another trade war climbdown following intense lobbying by industry executives over recent weeks, according to FT.

CHINA

• US President Trump said it depends on China how soon tariffs can come down.


• Trump said they could set the tariff for China over the next two or three weeks, while he suggested that there is daily direct contact between US and China.

CANADA

• Trump commented that they don't want cars from Canada and that car tariffs from Canada could go up, as well as noted that they are working on a deal with Canada and will see what happens.
  


• PBoC Governor Pan said in Washington that there are no winners in trade wars and tariff wars, while he added that unilateralism and protectionism have no way out and are not in the interests of anyone. Furthermore, Pan said China will adhere to opening up and firmly supports free trade rules and the multilateral trading system.


• 
  Chinese embassy in the US posted a statement from an official saying “Our doors are open, if the US wants to talk. If a negotiated solution is truly what the US wants, it should stop threatening and blackmailing China and seek dialogue based on equality, respect and mutual benefit. To keep asking for a deal while exerting extreme pressure is not the right way to deal with China and simply will not work."


• WSJ's Lingling Wei said there is an opportunity right now to get the US and China talking, while she noted how a delegation of senior Chinese officials are in Washington next week for IMF and World Bank meetings.


• China Customs will no longer supervise goods and articles included in the management of drugs, veterinary drugs, and medical devices, while it will no longer supervise import and export of microbial agents for environmental protection with these goods to no longer be supervised as special items entering and leaving China.

JAPAN

• 
  Japanese Economic Minister Akazawa plans to visit the US for tariff talks from April 30th, while it was also reported that the US told Japan it cannot give special treatment regarding tariffs during talks held earlier this month, according to NHK citing multiple Japanese government sources.

EU

• White House said regarding the EU fine on Meta (META) and Apple (AAPL) that novel forms of economic extortion will not be tolerated.

UK

• 
  UK Chancellor Reeves said the UK will not rush trade talks with the US and will not relax food standards to secure a deal, while she added that UK borrowing data reinforces the importance of controlling the public finances.

OTHERS

• 
  Swiss Economy Minister said he held a productive meeting with USTR Greer to discuss bilateral trade relations and is looking forward to future exchanges and continued collaboration.


• 
  Chile’s President said the best way to respond to this trade war is not with high-sounding statements, while they are not going to respond with retaliation and are going to respond with greater integration. Furthermore, he said they must continue working hard to facilitate customs processes and promote investments to improve logistics.


• 
  Taiwan's representative to the US said Taiwan is willing to increase purchases of weapons and energy from the US to reduce its trade deficit.

TARIFF BREAKDOWN

TARIFF TIMELINE

• 
  February 1st - Trump signed an executive order to impose 10% tariffs on all imports from China and 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada starting Feb 4th.


• 
  February 3rd - Trump agreed to a 30-day pause on tariffs against Canada and Mexico.


• 
  February 4th - US additional 10% tariff on China on top of existing levies came into effect. Chinese export controls on tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum and indium took effect (no specific countries mentioned).


• 
  February 10th - Chinese tariffs against the US took effect (15% tariffs on US coal & LNG, 10% tariffs on US oil).


• 
  February 13th - Trump signed his plan for reciprocal tariffs, albeit delayed the implementation.


• 
  March 4th - Tariff pause on Mexico and Canada expired; Additional 10% tariffs on China went into effect on top of Feb 4th tariffs. Canada announced retaliatory tariffs over 21 days, Mexico said it will also respond with retaliatory tariffs.


• 
  March 5th - Trump allowed a one-month exemption on Mexico and Canada tariffs of US automakers following talks with Ford (F), General Motors (GM) and Stellantis (STLAM IM/STLAP FP)


• 
  March 6th - Trump postponed the initial 25% tariffs on several imports from Mexico and some imports from Canada for a month. In response, Canada suspended its second wave of retaliatory tariffs.


• 
  March 10th - China's retaliatory tariffs on certain US agricultural imports (15% on US chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton; 10% on US soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products) went into effect; announced on March 4th in response to the extra 10% US tariff on top of Feb 4th tariffs.


• 
  March 11th - Trump threatened 50% tariffs on Canada, although he later backed down from this threat after Ontario's Premier announced they are suspending the 25% surcharge on exports of electricity. Trump separately suggested tariffs may go higher than 25% but did not specify which tariffs.


• 
  March 12th - 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports came into effect, with "no exceptions or exemptions"; European Commission launched countermeasures on US imports while it is putting forward a package of new countermeasures.


• 
  April 1st - Completion of the US trade policy review.


• 
  April 2nd - US Liberation Day; Baseline Tariff on 10% announces + retaliatory tariffs for worst offenders.


• 
  April 4th - China announced 34% reciprocal tariffs against US' "Liberation Day" levies; China announced further export controls on rare metals.


• 
  April 5th - Deadline for US-China TikTok deal; European Commission expected to finalised its proposed response to the US.


• 
  April 7th -  EU Commission proposed 25% tariff on US goods to take effect from May 16th and some on Dec 1st. 
  


• 
  April 7th - US President Trump threatened an additional 50% levy on China on top of the post-"Liberation Day" 54% tariff. 
  


• 
  April 9th - EU members vote on countermeasures to US steel and aluminium tariffs; reciprocal tariffs came into effect alongside 104% tariff on China.
  


• 
  April 10th - China's 84% levy on US goods came into effect
  


• 
  April 10th - EU suspended retaliation to US steel and aluminium tariffs for 90 days. 
  


• 
  April 11th - China raised 84% levy against the US to 125%.
  


• 
  April 11th - US exemption announced for semiconductors.


• 
  April 12/13th - White House clarifies chip tariffs are decoupled from reciprocal tariffs; Trump warned no country would be getting "off the hook".


• 
  April 24th - US-South Korea trade talks at 08:00EDT/13:00BST.


• 
  April 30th - Japanese Economic Minister Akazawa plans to visit the US for tariff talks.


• 
  May 1st - UK deadline for consultation on potential retaliatory tariffs.


• 
  May 19th - EU-UK summit in London.


• 
  May - Potential US semiconductor tariffs.


• 
  May/June - Potential US pharmaceutical tariffs.


• 
  July 8th - 90-day tariff lowering for "worst offenders" expires.


• 
  July 14th - US tariffs on Mexican agriculture goes into effect

Analysis details (07:30)

23rd April

BROADER TARIFFS

• White House Press Secretary said they now have 18 proposals from countries on trade and the trade team is meeting with 34 countries this week.


• US VP Vance said they are making progress across the board in trade talks.

CHINA

• "China: Door wide open for trade talks with US", according to Sky News Arabia.


• US-China fentanyl talks are hanging by a thread amid the trade war, according to Reuters sources.


• "US President Trump's apparently softening stance in his trade war with China is motivated because the tariffs against the Chinese will hurt a key part of his base... sources say the China deal could take months", according to FBN's Gasparino. "It’s still unclear the Chinese will be willing to negotiate favorable terms."


• US President Trump said they are doing fine with China and are going to be very nice with China, while he added that they have to make a deal and if they don't, the US will set a deal. Trump also stated the tariff on China will not be as high as 145% and will not be anywhere near that level but it won't be zero.


• US Treasury Secretary Bessent told a closed-door investor summit Tuesday that the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable and that he expects the situation to de-escalate, while Bessent added that negotiations haven’t started but a deal is possible, according to people who attended his session at an event hosted by JPMorgan in Washington cited by Bloomberg. Bessent said China negotiations will be a 'slog' and he described the current bilateral trade situation as an embargo, according to Reuters citing a person at the JPMorgan session.


• FBN's Gasparino posted on X that "he's been told by a person close to US Treasury Secretary Bessent that the reports on his remarks about a trade deal with China being imminent overstate what he said, while he meant there is room for talks and de-escalation but much also depends on China's willingness to compromise on trade as well.

INDIA/JAPAN

• White House is reportedly ‘close’ on Japan and India trade agreements to stave off massive US tariffs, although they are likely to leave many of the details to be hashed out at a later date and it may take months to hammer out the final deals as these things are complicated, according to Politico citing sources.


• Japan Economy Minister Akazawa said the nation has agreed with the US to make preparations to hold the next round of tariff talks as early as this month, has not yet been fixed.


• "momentum seems to be shifting to India from Japan on the first possible trade deal; timing uncertain.", according to FBN's Gasparino.

UK

• US is preparing negotiating terms for UK trade talks and will aim for the UK to reduce its automotive tariff from 10% to 2.5%, while the US will also push the UK to relax rules on agricultural imports from the US, including beef and revise rules of origin for goods from each nation, according to Wall Street Journal citing sources.

EU

• 
  Apple (AAPL) fined EUR 500mln by EU antitrust regulators for breaching landmark rules; Meta (META) fined EUR 200mln as its binary consent or pay advertising model in breach of EU rules.

NON-US TRADE

• China's Commerce Ministry said China received the EU side's appeal request on intellectual property rights case and will handle it in accordance with relevant rules, while China will work with other multi-party interim arbitration arrangement participants to firmly uphold the rules-based multilateral trading system.

LOGISTICS 

• Shipping name Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG GY) said it registered cancellations of around 30% from China to the US while simultaneously registering "massive growth" from Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia. Co. has not reduced the number of ships on the US routes, but are using some smaller ships.

22nd April

GLOBAL

• IMF cut 2025 global growth forecast to 2.8% (prev. 3.3%), cuts 2026 forecast to 3% (prev. 3.3%); Not forecast US recession, but risk of recession has increased to 40%; Global inflation expected to reach 4.3% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026.

US

• US President Trump said tariff negotiations going well and going to make a lot of money.


• US Commerce Department finalised dumping duties ranging from 6.1% to 271.28% on solar cells imported from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam.

CHINA

• China's MOFCOM said China respects all parties to resolve their economic and trade differences with the US through consultations on an equal footing, while it believes all parties should stand on the side of fairness and justice on reciprocal tariffs.


• It added that it firmly opposed to any party striking a deal at the expense of China, and if such a situation arises, China will never accept it and will take countermeasures in a resolute and reciprocal manner.  


• China is determined and capable of safeguarding its own rights and interests.


• Willing to strengthen solidarity and coordination with all parties, join hands to deal with the situation, jointly resist unilateral bullying.

JAPAN

• Japanese negotiators are reportedly complaining that the problem with the trade negotiations with the White House is that the US keeps changing its ask in terms of what exactly it wants, via FBN's Gasparino citing a Financial CEO.

SOUTH KOREA

• US-South Korea trade talks are set for April 24th.


• South Korea's Acting President Han says they expect the first trade meeting with the US this week to be the start of meaningful cooperation, but adds tariff negotiations with US may not be easy and talks will be held on April 24th at 08:00EDT/13:00BST.

INDIA

• India imposed 12% temporary tariff or safeguard duty on some steel imports.


• India Government said PM Modi and US VP Vance reviewed and positively assessed progress in various areas of bilateral cooperation and welcomed the significant progress in the negotiations for a mutually beneficial trade deal.


• US VP Vance's office issues statement on meeting with India PM Modi; the two made progress on US-India trade agreement.


• 
  US Trade Representative's statement confirmed that USTR Greer and India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry have finalised terms of reference to lay down a roadmap for negotiations on reciprocal trade and stated that India's constructive engagement so far has been welcomed.

MEXICO

• Mexican President Sheinbaum didn't reach final agreement in call with US President Trump, according to Bloomberg.


• Sheinbaum talked about steel, aluminium, and cars with Trump last week.

EU

• US President Trump, when asked about EU, said "we'll end up having a deal".


• EU is reportedly exploring tweaking its methane rules for US gas exports in a bid to help trade talks, according to Reuters sources. 

NON-US TRADE

• UK PM Starmer is said to be close to striking a major trade deal with the EU, which would allow UK defence firms to sell billions of pounds of weapons to European allies, albeit after the UK made concessions on fishing quotas.


• EU-UK summit will take place on May 19 in London.

17th April

US

• Fed Chair Powell said tariffs are even larger than in the Fed's upside estimates.

JAPAN

• US President Trump posted on Truth Social "A Great Honor to have just met with the Japanese Delegation on Trade. Big Progress!".


• Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa said he told US negotiation counterparts that Japan wants the best solution as soon as possible for both nations and strongly requested the revocation of tariffs on Japan. Akazawa said they agreed to hold a second meeting this month and he believes the US wants a deal within the 90-day window but added that he has no idea how talks will progress going forward.


• Japanese PM Ishiba said the Economy Minister reported to him that constructive talks were held with the US, while Ishiba added that of course talks will not be easy going forward and he will visit the US at an appropriate time to meet with US President Trump.

CHINA

• 
  China is said to move from the US to Canada for more oil amid trade tensions, according to Bloomberg.


• 
  Intel (INTC) told Chinese clients last week that chips would require a licence for exporting to China if the chips met certain requirements, according to FT.

UK

• 
  White House officials believe a trade deal with Britain can be finalised within three weeks, according to Telegraph sources.


• UK officials are said to be tightening security when handling sensitive trade documents to shield them from the US amid the tariff war, according to Guardian sources.

LOGISTICS

• Auto supplier Forvia (FRVIA FP) implements maximized flexibilization of production costs in sites where volumes are already hit by tariffs; implements hiring freeze, immediate reduction of non-permanent contracts, targets reduction of capex  Implements travel restrictions, marketing expense cuts.


• Hermes (RMS FP) will implement price hikes in US on all goods to fully offset tariff effects starting May.

16th April

US

• White House said President Trump signed an order launching an investigation into national security risks posed by US reliance on imported processed critical minerals and their derivative products.


• White House Press Secretary stated over 15 trade deal proposals are actively being considered and they believe they can announce some very soon.


• 
  US President Trump said the tariff pause was because it is a transition and came from the need for flexibility.


• 
  US President Trump posted on Truth Social that "The United States is taking in RECORD NUMBERS in Tariffs, with the cost of almost all products going down, including gasoline, groceries, and just about everything else. Likewise, INFLATION is down. Promises Made, Promises Kept!"

WHITE HOUSE FACT SHEET

• A White House Fact Sheet was released late Tuesday alongside the investigation into national security risks posed by US reliance on imported processed critical minerals and their derivative products.

The Fact Sheet also suggested:

• More than 75 countries have already reached out to discuss new trade deals.


• As a result, the individualized higher tariffs are currently paused amid these discussions, except for China, which retaliated.


• China now faces up to a 245% tariff on imports to the United States as a result of its retaliatory actions. [Awaiting clarity]


• NOTE: CNBC's Cassella clarified there has been no change in policy; "The 145% tariff Trump placed on Chinese goods this year always needed to be added to duties in place before he took office Jan. 20. A handful of items were already at 100%."

TECH SECTOR 

• NVIDIA (NVDA) expects USD 5.5bln in charges in Q1 FY2026 related to H20 products after the US informed the Co. it requires a licence to export those chips to China.


• 
  ASML (ASML NA) missed on Q1 revenue expectations, whilst bookings were notably softer than expected (3.94bln vs exp. 4.82bln) and Q2 margin outlook is sub-par (Gross Margin 50-52%  vs exp. 52.3%). On the flip side, Co. beat on Net Income, raised annual dividend by almost 5%, and affirmed FY guidance. Co. noted of trade uncertainty and said it is actively working with the ecosystem to minimise overall tariff impact; CFO says intent is for financial impact to be as limited as possible.


• US chip equipment makers calculated that Trump administration tariffs could cost them more than USD 1bln a year, with tariffs estimated to cost Applied Materials (AMAT), Lam Research (LRCX) and KLA Corp (KLAC) USD 350mln each annually, according to Reuters sources.


• US Treasury Secretary Bessent underlined US opposition to digital services tax levied by Spain and other countries as well as other non-tariff barriers, according to the Treasury Department.

CHINA

• 
  China is said to be open to talks if US President Trump shows respect, via Bloomberg sources; China wants Trump to rein in cabinet members and show consistency; wants US talks to address concerns on Taiwan and sanctions. "The most important precondition for any talks is that Chinese officials need to know such engagement will be conducted with respect". The source said Trump has been relatively dovish when speaking publicly about Chinese President Xi, but other members of his administration have been more hawkish, leaving officials in Beijing unsure of the States' position.


• US President Trump said  they may want countries to choose between the US or China.


• White House Press Secretary said President Trump messaged that the ball is in China's court and that they don't have to make a deal with them but Trump is open to a deal with China.


• 
  Chinese GDP QQ SA (Q1) 1.2% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 1.6%); GDP YY 5.4% vs. Exp. 5.1% (Prev. 5.4%); Chinese Retail Sales YY (Mar) 5.9% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.0%); Chinese Industrial Output YY (Mar) 7.7% vs. Exp. 5.8% (Prev. 5.9%). The mostly better-than-expected GDP and activity data from China failed to inspire given that they were from a period before the US-China tariff escalation.


• 
  China's stats bureau deputy commissioner said the unfavourable impact of the international environment on China's economy is deepening, protectionism is rapidly rising globally and the world economic order has been severely damaged. The official said they resolutely oppose US tariffs which are against economic rules and WTO rules, as well as noted that high US tariffs will bring about some pressures on China's trade and economy. However, the deputy commissioner also commented that Q1 data underscores China's strong resilience and potential, while the official added that macroeconomic policies will become more proactive this year and that China has a rich policy toolkit to support the economy.


• US intends to use tariff negotiations to isolate China with officials planning to use the negotiations of more than 70 nations to ask them to disallow China to ship goods through their countries, according to WSJ.


• Hong Kong Post suspended the postal service for items containing goods to the US and said for sending items to the US, the public in Hong Kong should be prepared to pay exorbitant and unreasonable fees due to the US's unreasonable and bullying acts.


• 
  China has appointed Li Chenggang as its new chief international trade negotiator, replacing Wang Shouwen amid escalating tariff tensions with the US. Li is a former China's ambassador to the WTO and a former Assistant Commerce Minister. His appointment signals a potential strategic shift in China's approach to resolving the prolonged tariff standoff with the US​, with both sides yet to agree on conditions for restarting negotiations.

EU

• EU and US made little progress in narrowing trade differences this week, according to Bloomberg sources.


• Trump admin indicated that the bulk of US tariffs on EU will not be removed, according to Bloomberg. US officials indicated that the “reciprocal” tariffs tariffs targeting sectors including cars and metals would not be removed outright.


• EU Trade Chief Sefcovic left the meeting with the US with little clarity on the US stance, according to Bloomberg sources. 


• Bloomberg sources added that US officials have suggested that sectoral measures had to stay, but some tariffs on cars could be offset by upping investments, production, and exports from the US.


• The EU has offered that both sides remove all tariffs on industrial goods, including cars. The US has so far rejected that proposal.


• US reportedly wants to see European chemical firms produce more precursors used in pharma in the US, integrate supply chains, adopt preferential procurement practices, and suggested the EU should raise prices of its medicine.


• On steel, aluminium, and the potential imposition of future levies on copper, the US is urging the EU to present a proposal, while also suggesting the idea of common tariffs, according to sources. Sources mentioned that it was unclear whether these suggestions had broad support within the administration, but highlighted that several of them conflicted with WTO regulations.


• EU proposed increasing LNG purchases from the US, but the US officials have reportedly show little appetite in exploring this as an alternative to tariffs. 


• According to sources, US officials have emphasised the need to address what Washington views as non-tariff barriers, including digital and AI regulations, as well as food standards. Talks between the two parties will proceed at a technical level.

UK

• Sources told Sky News the UK was "in the foothills" of a deal, but it has not been straightforward, and there is some distance to go.


• UK PM Starmer is reportedly closing in on a new partnership with the EU that could put a trade deal with the White House at risk, according to The Telegraph. The deal is to align EU and UK on food and veterinary standards - "It is thought that aligning the UK more closely with Brussels could destroy goodwill in negotiations with Washington."

CANADA

• White House Press Secretary stated President Trump is maintaining his position on Canada.

MEXICO

• US President Trump said he is getting along well with Mexican President Sheinbaum.

JAPAN

• US President Trump posted on Truth Social: ""Japan is coming in today to negotiate Tariffs, the cost of military support, and “TRADE FAIRNESS.” I will attend the meeting, along with Treasury & Commerce Secretaries. Hopefully something can be worked out which is good (GREAT!) for Japan and the USA!""


• BoJ Governor Ueda said they may need a policy response but will decide appropriately in line with changing developments when asked about a BoJ response if US tariff policy puts downward pressure on Japan's economy, while they will scrutinise without any preconception impact of US tariff policy on Japan's economy which is already affecting corporate and household confidence.


• Furthermore, Ueda said from February onwards, risks surrounding US tariff policy have moved closer towards the bad scenario the BoJ envisioned and noted the BoJ sees both upside and downside risks to the price outlook, according to Sankei.

NON-US TRADE

• UK Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds will travel to Beijing to revive a key trade dialogue with China months after saying it had been naïve to allow Chinese investment in sensitive sectors, according to The Guardian.


• The EU Chamber of Commerce in China urges China to revise its industrial policies and adopt market-oriented reforms to foster a more balanced and sustainable economic relationship with the EU.

15th April

US

• US President Trump said they will put tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals in the not-too-distant future.


• Trump also said he is looking to help car companies and there will maybe be some things coming up.


• US Secretary of Commerce initiated an investigation to determine the effects of national security of imports of pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical ingredients and initiated Section 232 national security investigation of imports of semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment, according to the Federal Register.


• White House NEC Chair Hassett said the US is in the 'sweet spot' of growth and that President Trump wants to see tariff money up front, while he does not see a recession at all, according to a Fox Business interview.

CHINA

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said US President Trump and Chinese President Xi have a very good relationship and noted that tariffs on China are big numbers and that no one thinks they are sustainable and wants them to remain. Bessent stated that tariffs on China are not a joke and that there doesn't have to be decoupling with China, but there could be and noted the US will negotiate tariff rates with partners in good faith and will run a robust process.


• Chinese senior official for Hong Kong Affairs said the US tariff war goal is not to take Hong Kong's tariffs, "they want our life" and 145% tariff on Hong Kong is "brutally unreasonable, extremely shameless".


• UBS downgraded China's growth forecast to 3.4% from 4.0% in 2025, assuming current tariff hikes will remain, and China rolls out additional stimulus, with high margins of error.

EU

• US President Trump said  the EU is taking advantage of the US and has to come to the table which they're trying to.


• EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic said he is in Washington for talks and is seizing the 90-day window for a mutual solution to unjustified tariffs. Sefcovic added that the EU remains constructive and is ready for a fair deal including reciprocity through their zero-for-zero tariff offer on industrial goods and the work on non-tariff barriers, while he noted that achieving this will require a significant joint effort.

UK

• "UK government sources have suggested that recent talks with the US on a trade deal have been making good progress. It is understood that any deal would focus on more than just lowering tariffs, and cover elements of trade in both goods and services", according to BBC.

MEXICO

• 
  US Department of Commerce announced its intent to withdraw from the 2019 suspension agreement of fresh tomatoes from Mexico and with termination of the agreement, the Commerce Department will institute an anti-dumping duty order on July 14th, resulting in duties of 20.91% on most imports of tomatoes from Mexico.

ARGENTINA

• Argentina's President Milei said "we understand the reciprocal tariffs from the US" and are ready to sign a trade agreement along these lines.

14th April

US

SEMICONDUCTOR TARIFFS

• US President Trump’s administration exempted items from reciprocal tariffs including smartphones, storage devices and some other electronics. 


• 
  However, Trump posted on Sunday that there was no tariff exception announced on Friday and that these products are subject to the existing 20% fentanyl tariffs and are just moving to a different tariff bucket, while he stated that “NOBODY is getting “off the hook” for the unfair Trade Balances, and Non Monetary Tariff Barriers, that other Countries have used against us, especially not China which, by far, treats us the worst!”.


• 
  US President Trump said he is to announce the tariff rate for semiconductors over the next week and that semiconductor tariffs will be in place in the not-distant future, while he added there will be some flexibility on some companies on semiconductor tariffs but it is not clear.


• Trump responded that they will be announced soon but there has to be some flexibility when asked about tariffs on Apple (AAPL) iPhones.


• US President Trump is to issue a Section 232 study on semiconductors soon and said he will have more information on semiconductors on Monday.


• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said President Trump plans a separate levy on exempted electronics amid a trade war with electronics products to be part of upcoming sectoral tariffs.

BRODER TARIFFS/MARKET

• Trump noted that the 10% tariff is a floor or pretty close and that it doesn’t matter if the dollar went down as he thinks it will go up and will be stronger than ever. Trump said the bond market is going good and had a little moment but he solved that problem very quickly.


• Trump said that autos, steel, pharmaceuticals, chips and other specific materials will be included in specific tariffs to ensure tariffs are applied fairly and effectively.


• Greer said they have to be much more deliberate about the semiconductor supply chain and he believes the US will have meaningful tariff deals with several countries in the next few weeks.

TIMINGS

• 
  US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said semiconductor and electronic tariffs will come in a month or so, while he added that pharmaceutical tariffs will be coming in the next month or two and that the US had “soft entrees” through intermediaries with China on tariffs.

US TRADE PRIORITY

• US President Trump’s administration is reportedly prioritising trading partners that are strategic to China with the US in talks with Japan, South Korea, India and Vietnam, according to Politico.

WHITE HOUSE PRE-CASH OPEN COMMENTARY

White House NEC Chair Hassett: 

• The US is aiming at semiconductors that influence national security.


• US President Trump will make the decision on when and if to have talks with China.


• Making enormous progress on tariff talks with EU.


• 100% not expecting a recession.


• Positive developments adding indirect pressure on China.


• Regarding EU talks, said it is going to be very good for American, particularly American auto workers.


• Rare earth limits are being studied very carefully.


• White House is concerned about China.

CHINA

• USTR Greer said there are no plans yet for President Trump to speak with Chinese President Xi and stated electronic exemptions reflect a move from reciprocal tariffs to national security tariffs.


• White House spokesperson said US President Trump made it clear America cannot rely on China to manufacture critical technologies such as semiconductors, chips, smartphones and laptops.


• China said the US tariff exclusion is a small step for the US to correct its wrong practice and called for the US to completely cancel the levies.


• 
  China Customs said at present, China's exports are facing a complex and severe external situation, but added the sky will not fall and China is actively building a diversified market and deepening cooperation with all parties in the supply chain. Furthermore, it stated that importantly, China's domestic demand is broad and the import decline in the first quarter was mainly due to the decline in international product prices and fewer working days.


• China is to roll out more monetary easing steps with China to ramp up counter-cyclical policy adjustments and implement various monetary policy measures in the future, according to Shanghai Securities News.


• China may cut rates and RRR if the trade war hurts the economy, according to PBoC-backed Financial News citing former PBoC adviser Yu Yongding.


• 
  Chinese Trade Balance (USD)(Mar) 102.64B vs. Exp. 77.0B (Prev. 170.52B), Chinese Exports YY (Mar) 12.4% vs. Exp. 4.4% (Prev. 2.3%), Chinese Imports YY (Mar) -4.3% vs. Exp. -2.0% (Prev. -8.4%), Chinese Yuan-Denominated Trade Balance (Mar) 736.72B (Prev. 228.19B), Chinese Yuan-Denominated Exports (Mar) 13.5% (Prev. -1.9%), Chinese Yuan-Denominated Imports (Mar) -3.5% (Prev. 2.5%)

UK

• UK government announced that prices were slashed on 89 foreign products ranging from pasta, fruit juices and spices to plastic and gardening supplies over the next two years, while it stated the UK global tariff will be temporarily suspended on 89 products saving UK businesses at least GBP 17mln a year.


• UK retail bosses raised fears of Chinese product ‘dumping’ into the UK and European markets through platforms such as Temu, Shein and Amazon (AMZN) amid Trump tariffs, according to FT.

EU

• Spain’s Economy Minister said the pause in US tariffs is an opportunity for dialogue.

11th April

CHINA RETALIATION

• China unveiled additional tariff measures on US goods; to raise additional tariffs on US goods to 125% from 84%. Effective April 12th.  


• “Given that there is no longer any possibility of market acceptance for US goods exported to China under the current tariff levels, if the US side subsequently continues to impose tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the US, the Chinese side will pay no attention to it,”


• Finance Ministry "if the US continues to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the US, China will ignore it".


• If the US insists on infringing on China's interests in a substantive way, China will resolutely take countermeasures.


• China's Commerce Ministry said the US' repeated imposition of abnormally high tariffs on China has become a "numbers game" and has no practical economic significance.

Note: One interpretation of the above language may be that the bar to China retaliating further has been raised, but remains an option.

BROADER TRADE/TARIFFS

• White House to CNBC: US Tariffs on China now total 145% after latest hike. (20% pre-existing levy + 125% added this year).


• US President Trump said plenty are working to make a deal and he thinks it's going to work very well, while he added there have been transition problems, but in the end, it will be an incredible thing.


• Trump also said they may buy ships from other countries.


• Trump said the first deal on tariffs is very close and they will go back to where they were if they can't make a deal.


• White House trade advisor Navarro said they are going to get deals from Australia, India, and the UK, and that those three are all coming in.

CHINA

• Trump reiterated he would love to get a deal with China and think they will end up working out something good for both countries.


• 
  US President Trump's administration is moving towards a possible delisting of Chinese public Co. shares on US exchanges with incoming SEC chair Paul Atkins likely to take up the delisting issue when he officially takes office, according to FBN's Gasparino citing sources.

EU

• Trump said he is looking at the EU as one block on tariffs.


• 
  European Commission President Von De Leyen said could tax big tech if Trump trade talks fail, while she added the EU would seek a "completely balanced" agreement with the US during Trump's 90-day pause in applying additional tariffs and there is a wide range of countermeasures in case the negotiations are not satisfactory, according to FT.

MEXICO

• Trump said is not looking to hurt Mexico.


• 
  US President Trump posted on Truth Social that "Mexico owes Texas 1.3mln acre-feet of water under the 1944 Water Treaty, but Mexico is unfortunately violating their Treaty obligation," while he threatened "escalating consequences, including TARIFFS and, maybe even SANCTIONS, until Mexico honors the Treaty, and GIVES TEXAS THE WATER THEY ARE OWED!".


• 
  Mexican President Sheinbaum stated that Mexico sent a proposal to the US to address water deliveries to Texas and she has instructed her administration to contact US officials and is sure an agreement will be reached, while she noted Mexico has been complying with the treaty as water availability allows, amid three years of drought.

NON-US TRADE

• EU and China begin negotiations to abolish EU tariffs on Chinese EVs, via Handelsblatt.


• EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic and Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao agreed to look into setting minimum prices rather than duties for China-made EV imports.

10th April

BROADER TARIFFS

• US President Trump raised the tariff charged to China by the US to 125% from 104% effectively immediately, but authorised a 90-day pause and lowered reciprocal tariffs to 10% during this period on the 75 countries that asked for talks.


• US President Trump said he announced a tariff pause because people were getting afraid and jumping out of line. Furthermore, he said the bond market now is beautiful and they will take a look at exempting some US companies.


• US President Trump said he was thinking about pausing tariffs for the past few days and the decision to pause tariffs came together on Wednesday morning, while he added they don't want to hurt countries that don't need to be hurt and that sectoral tariffs are still coming.


• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said countries who did not retaliate will be rewarded and that China tariffs are being raised due to retaliation. Bessent said they will work on a solution with trading partners and the US is expecting countries to come with their best deal. Furthermore, he said the pause allows time to negotiate and it is not because of the market's reaction.


• White House trade advisor Navarro said every US trade deal is going to be tailor-made and this is unfolding exactly the way it should, while he added tariff talks are going to move "fast and beautifully".

CHINA

• Trump said would love to get deal with China and think will end up working out something good for both countries.


• Although Trump said tariffs on China will be 125%, a White House official told CNBC that the tariffs on China now total 145% after the latest hike. 


• Trump also said that China wants to make a deal and doesn't know how to go about it, while he added nothing is over yet and a deal could be struck with China.


• President Trump also said he thinks they will end up making a very good deal with China, as well as stated he is not concerned about escalation with China outside of the trade war and 'can't imagine' a further increase of tariffs on China.


• China's Commerce Minister said China is willing to resolve differences through consultation and negotiation, but reiterated if the US side is bent on having its own way, China will fight it to the end and noted the so-called ‘reciprocal tariffs’ of the United States are a serious infringement of the legitimate interests of all countries.


• Chinese leaders are to meet on stimulus following President Trump's tariff shock, according to Bloomberg.


• China Commerce Ministry said any TikTok US business arrangement must comply with Chinese laws. It was separately reported that White House officials are said to be conceding that the potential TikTok US deal is off the table for the foreseeable future, and maybe forever, as the trade war focuses solely on China, according to Fox's Gasparino. However, President Trump commented have to wait and see what happens with China on the TikTok deal and that it is still on the table.


• 
  China's MOFCOM said the challenges facing foreign trade have significantly increased. Resilience of foreign trade has not diminished. "Door is open", but pressure threats & blackmail are not the correct approach. China's foreign trade has the confidence to deal with various risks and challenges. Position is clear and consistent. If US insists on its own way, China will follow it to the end. China has taken and will continue to take resolute countermeasures to safeguard its sovereignty, security, and development interests.
  


• China's Foreign Ministry, on US tariffs, said taking further measures to oppose US moves it not only aimed at protecting own sovereignty, security and development interests. China does not want to fight, "but will not fear when they come our way".


• China's MOFCOM holds Export Control Work Conference between April 9-10th, according to a statement; set to further improve China's export control system.


• China will moderate lower the number of US films imported to China, according to CCTV.


• NOTE: Substantial CNH strength seen ~11:25BST before picking up in pace at ~11:30BST. 

EU

• Trump said looking at EU as one block on tariffs.


• Trump responded a deal could be made with everyone when asked about an EU deal, as well as noted it is working out maybe faster than he thought and said have to be flexible with tariffs.


• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick expects the EU will delay its planned tariff retaliation after Trump's announcement. It was separately reported that the EU weighs buying more US gas due to Trump tariff pressure, according to FT.


• European Commission said will closely consult with member states and industry before deciding on the next steps regarding Trump's tariff situation; will take necessary time assess latest development, regarding Trump tariff situation.


• 
  EU has agreed on a 90-day pause in countermeasures due on April 15th against the US; if negotiations are not satisfactory then EU countermeasures will kick in; preparatory work for further countermeasures continue; all options remain on the table. EU Commission said, what they are saying to the US is, "we are ready to make a deal so lets have a conversation."

CANADA/MEXICO

• US President Trump said not looking to hurt Mexico


• White House said there is no 10% baseline tariff on Canada and an official confirmed there was no change to autos, steel and aluminium tariffs, as well as no change to Canada and Mexico tariffs. Furthermore, a White House official commented that the 90-day 'pause' on tariffs does not apply to tariffs on Canada and Mexico, with the 25% tariff on non-USMCA trade with Canada and Mexico to remain in effect, except for the 10% tariff on energy and potash.


• Canada's PM Carney said the pause on reciprocal tariffs announced by US President Trump is a welcome reprieve for the global economy, while he added that Trump's signal that the US will engage in bilateral negotiations, would likely result in a fundamental restructuring of the global trading system.

NON-US TRADE UPDATES

• China's Commerce Minister held talks with EU trade chief Sefcovic and said that China is willing to deepen China-EU trade, investment and industrial cooperation, while he added the two sides will discuss trade transfer issues, and handle trade frictions properly.


• UK and India have agreed 90% of their free trade agreement, according to sources cited by The Guardian.

FORECASTS/COMMENTARY

• Goldman Sachs revises down China GDP Growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 to 4% (prev. 4.5%) and 3.5% (prev. 4.0%) respectively.


• Goldman Sachs rescinds recession call after Trump tariff pause.


• German Economic Institutes cut 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.1% (prev. 0.8%); 2026 GDP growth seen at 1.3% (prev. 1.3%).


• Director of France's Wine and Spirit lobby group says US President Trump's decision to pause most tariffs is "half good news".

White House Economic Adviser Hassett (pre-US Cash open)

• There is a big inventory of deals that are right close to the finish line.


• Two trade deals almost closed as of last week.


• Bond market may have contributed to tariff decision but it did not cause a panic move.


• Set up a process for tariffs deals, can be orderly.


• Conversations on China have not begun yet.


• US President Trump has a strong relationship with China President Xi.

9th April

BROADER TARIFFS

• 
  US President Trump said they have a lot of countries wanting to make a deal and noted that the tariff situation is a good situation, while he added it is very important to pass the big beautiful bill.


• Trump stated he will be announcing tariffs on pharmaceuticals soon.


• US President Trump said they are taking USD 2bln in a day from tariffs and are doing well on tailored tariff deals, while he added that Japanese officials are flying to the US to make a deal and so are South Korean officials. Furthermore, he reiterated that tariffs are on and that they have tariffs on cars, lumber and steel.


• White House Press Secretary said President Trump has tasked US Treasury Secretary and USTR Greer to lead talks and deals will be made if they benefit American workers and address trade deficits, while she said President Trump met with the trade team on Tuesday morning and directed the team to have tailor-made trade deals with every country that contacts the administration to strike a deal. Furthermore, she said reciprocal tariffs will continue to go into effect as deals are negotiated and all options are on the table for each country, as well as stated that phones have been ringing "off the hook" from nations trying to negotiate a trade deal.


• At least a dozen House Republicans are considering signing onto Rep. Don Bacon's bill to restrict the White House's ability to impose tariffs unilaterally, according to Axios.


• US President Trump's administration is revising the plan to impose significant port fees on Chinese-built vessels, via WSJ citing sources; in order to lessen the impact on US exports  New plan is reportedly to determine the fees primarily on vessel capacity.


• FT reports that there had been no discussions between China and the US about resolving the trade war, according to sources cited; article adds, unlike other Asian nations China has not reached out to the US to start talks. US has also not reached out. The article points out that the likes of Japan, South Korea and Vietnam have reached out to the US.

CHINA

China's Retaliation

• China has announced additional tariff measures on US goods, tariffs of 84% on US goods from April 10th (34% already announced + 50% additional).


• China adds 12 US entities to export control list, adds 6 US entities to "unreliable entity" list.


• Risk aversion across markets experienced following the retaliation.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent (pre-cash open)

• China's 84% retaliatory tariffs are unfortunate, via FBN; China's escalation is a loser for them.


• They (China) can raise their tariffs, "but so what".


• A very good step with the Chinese is to acknowledge fentanyl precursors.


• China needs to punish people exporting fentanyl precursors to the US.


• Vietnam is coming for tariff talks on Wednesday.


• Allies coming to talk to US should think about how to rebalance China.


• China should not try to devalue their way out of this.


• If China starts devaluing, that's a tax on others.


• When asked about removing Chinese stocks from US exchanges: everything's on the table.


• That will be Trump's decision.


• Bessent said strong Yen is natural; US has strong dollar policy


• Economically, the US is in "pretty good shape".


• There is a little uncertainty but companies tell him that the economy is "very solid".


• Tariff rates are a ceiling if other nations do not retaliate.


• Has 70 negotiations lined up. First one lined up is Japan.


• China is the only nation that has escalated.


• At the end of the day, can probably reach a deal with allies.


• US could approach China as a group with allies.


• Wishes to deleverage the government sector and releverage the private sector.

US Tariffs came into effect

• 104% US tariff on China took effect from 12:00 EDT/05:00 BST. 


• US President Trump said China is manipulating its currency to offset tariffs and he thinks China will make a deal at some point and wants to make a deal.


• The White House said US President Trump believes China has to and wants to make a deal with the US, while it was stated that if China makes a deal, Trump will be 'gracious'.


• USTR Greer said they are willing to discuss how to implement a ban on imports of uranium from China and the Commerce Department is considering whether a Section 232 critical minerals investigation is needed.


• China's auto body CPCA says this round of tariff hikes may affect some overseas production plans of Chinese automakers in the short term.

Chinese Support Meeting (Via Reuters)

• China's top leaders are to hold a meeting as soon as Wednesday (today) to discuss measures to boost the economy after US trade tariffs, via Reuters citing sources.


• Top leaders to discuss measures to stabilise capital markets.


• Officials from PBoC, Finance Ministry, among others are to attend.


• Some of the measures could be implemented in the coming weeks.

Chinese Whitepaper on US Trade and Economic Relations:

• China is to take countermeasures to safeguard rights and interests.


• China firmly opposes unliteral/bullying restrictive measures.


• China have always believed the essence of China and US economic trade ties is mutually beneficial, a win-win.


• China is willing to communicate with the US; US will not solve its own problems by raising tariffs.

Chinese Foreign Ministry on US tariffs

• China's right to development cannot be deprived.


• China will continue to take resolute and effective measures to safeguard legitimate interests.


• US continues to abuse tariffs to pressure China, firmly oppose this.


• China has a firm will and abundant means, will resolutely counteract and fight to the end.

PBoC Sources (Via Reuters)

• PBoC has asked major state banks to reduce USD purchases, according to Reuters sources; PBoC will not resort to immediate sharp CNY deprecation to counteract the impact from US tariffs.


• Chinese state banks were seen selling USD and buying CNY aggressively to slow the pace of CNY declines in the onshore spot market on Wednesday.


• PBoC asked state banks to without USD purchases for proprietary accounts, and ask state banks to strengthen checks executive orders for clients.


• Chinese monetary and fiscal stimulus are unlikely to fully protect the Chinese economy from the severe downturn in global demand caused by tariffs, according to Reuters sources.

Chinese Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM)

• China's MOFCOM says "With firm will and abundant means, China will resolutely take countermeasures and fight till the end if the US insists on further escalating economic and trade restrictive measures", Via Global Times.

CANADA/MEXICO

• Trump stated that he respects Canada and Mexico but they cheat on trade.


• Canada said it has already announced 25% counter-tariffs against some US-made autos which will go into effect April 9th, while tariffs will remain in place until the US eliminates its tariffs against the Canadian auto sector.

SOUTH KOREA

• 
  South Korea announced emergency measures for the auto industry hit by US tariffs in which it is to lower taxes on auto purchases and raise EV subsidies to boost domestic demand, while it raised policy financing support for automakers to KRW 15tln this year from KRW 13tln and vowed efforts to ensure that domestic automakers are not treated in a disadvantageous way.

JAPAN

• 
  Japan top currency Diplomat Mimumra said three party talks were held in response to US tariffs, discussed unstable moves in financial markets; agreed to do the upmost to maintain stability in global markets. Exchanging information with G7, Asian nations and the IMF. Watching moves with a high sense of urgency. The first step would be to work to remove these US tariffs. Cooperation needs to be international given global impact. Have been having various discussions with the US Treasury. Important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals. Current moves are very volatile, alarmed over the moves including those driven by speculators. No comment on daily FX moves. Market seems concerned about the risks of inflation and recession in the US.


• Japanese government and ruling coalition begin consideration to distribute cash handout as part of measures to cushion the blow from Trump tariffs, according to Asahi newspaper.

UK

• 
  UK Chancellor Reeves is to hold tariffs crisis talks with top city executives, according to Sky News.


• 
  UK Culture Secretary Nandy said they will rule out changes to the Online Safety Act as part of US trade talks. Note: The US has previously raised concern over the UK's Online Safety Act, alleging that it may diminish freedom of expression.

EU

• 20% tariff came into effect.


• No official response yet from EU.


• EU Members set to vote on countermeasures to US steel and aluminium tariffs today.


• French Industry Minister said they are analysing the likely impact from Trump's tariffs on jobs, aerospace and luxury, in order to determine the EU response. Reiterated language around a firm, proportionate response.


• 
  ECB said EZ growth to take a bigger hit from US President Trump tariffs than ECB had earlier estimated, according to Reuters citing sources; initial ECB estimate of 50bps hit to growth in first year under revision  A source estimates a growth hit in excess of 100bps in the first year.


• EU trade chief discussed parameters to lower tariffs with US. EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic spoke with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and USTR Greer on trade Tuesday.


• EU had adopted tariffs on EUR 21bln of US goods in its metals dispute, according to Bloomberg.


• EU Commission says it will impose first countermeasures against the US on April 15th, retaliation of 10-25% on US imports; secured backing from EU countries for the first countermeasures against US tariffs.  Countermeasures can be suspended at any time, should the US agree to a fair and balanced negotiated outcome. 

8th April

BROADER TARIFFS

• 
  US President Trump responded that they are not looking at a pause in tariffs. (Follows the misreporting yesterday of a 90-day pause)


• 
  Trump also stated that tariffs could be permanent and there could also be talks, while he is not worried about tariffs driving trading partners into the hands of China and said the US cannot be taken advantage of any longer.


• 
  US Treasury Secretary Bessent said tariffs depend on negotiations which will be tough and the US will not likely have any trade deals in place by April 9th to avoid the retaliatory tariffs going into place.


• 
  US tariffs reportedly threaten almost USD 2tln of investment pledges by global companies, according to FT.


• 
  Apple (AAPL) reportedly plans to send more iPhones to the US from India to offset the high cost of China tariffs, according to WSJ citing sources.


• 
  Micron (MU) tells US customers it will impose a tariff related surcharge on some products from April 9th, according to Reuters citing sources. Co. said that while Trump's tariffs exempted chips, the tariffs applied to memory modules and solid-state drives (SSDs), the sources note. An executive at an Asian NAND module manufacturer said they were taking a similar approach to MU to tell US customers they had to figure out the tariffs themselves.

CHINA

• Trump threatened an additional 50% tariff on China if they do not remove the 34% tit-for-tat tariff on the US by Tuesday.


• China's MOFCOM said China strongly opposes 50% additional tariffs and urges resolution of disputes with the US via dialogue, while it said it will fight to the end if the US insists on measures.


• 
  Chinese Foreign Ministry, on President Trump's tariff threats, said China will take necessary measures; if US insists on waging a trade and tariff war, China will fight till the end. Chinese FM added that US acts did not show willingness for serious talks; if US wants to talk, it should show attitude for equality and respect.


• China's People’s Daily article stated China's message to Trump is that China is prepared and tariffs will hurt but the Sky won't fall, while it added Beijing is ready with monetary and fiscal steps and with help for businesses and markets, according to CNBC's Yoon.

EU

• 
  EU Commission proposed a 25% tariff on US goods to take effect from May 16th, according to Reuters citing a document.


• Trump said trade with the European Union has to be fair and reciprocal, as well as noting the EU will have to buy energy from the US and that they are making tremendous progress with a lot of countries on tariffs.


• EU spokesperson said the EU expects to present a plan for a response to new tariffs early next week; they are absolutely ready to discuss and negotiate with the US on energy  All instruments all on the table, including LNG.


• EU Spokesperson said "the situation has not changed, we want to avoid tariffs; we do not want tariffs, we are waiting for our American counterparts to engage in a meaningful way".


• European Pharma lobby warned EU President that US tariffs further reduce incentive to invest in Europe, "significant drivers to relocate to the US", via Reuters citing sources


• China's Premier Li, in a phone call European Commission President Von der Leyen, said China is willing to strengthen political mutual trust with the EU.

JAPAN

• Trump said Japan needs to open up its country.


• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he has not seen a trade offer from Japan and expects Japan to get priority in negotiations because they came forward early, while he added that maybe 70 countries have approached the US by now on trade and that Japan's non-tariff trade barriers are quite high, according to an FBN interview.


• Japan will reportedly send Economy Minister Akazawa to the US for tariff talks with US Treasury Secretary Bessent soon, according to Mainichi. However, Akazawa earlier stated that he was not aware of a report that he would be appointed by PM Ishiba as negotiator for trade talks with the US and has not been approached by PM Ishiba when asked about if he would be appointed as Japan's negotiator with the US on trade.


• Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi says PM Ishiba is considering visiting the US to meet with US President Trump while watching ministers' talks.

INDIA

• US Secretary of State Rubio discussed US reciprocal tariffs on India and how to make progress towards a fair trade relationship in a call with his Indian counterpart, according to the State Department.

WHITE HOUSE OFFICIALS' COMMENTARY (before Wall Street open)

US Treasury Secretary Bessent:

• Tariff negotiations are result of massive inbound calls, not the market, via CNBC interview; everything is President Trump's decision.


• When asked about tax with Europe, says everything is on the table.


• Trump will be personally involved in negotiations.


• Japan, South Korea and Taiwan may be engaged in Alaska deal (Early March, Trump said Japan, south Korea and others want to partner with US in a gigantic natural gas pipeline in Alaska).


• If they are successful, tariffs would be a melting ice cube in a way.


• Have discussed which countries to prioritize.


• If there are solid proposals, could end up with some good deals.


• As part of calculus with deals, some part of tariffs may stay on.


• Thinks escalation by China was a big mistake.


• Bessent was not involved in the calculations of the tariff numbers.


• US President Trump is committed to fixing trade imbalances.


• Getting tax bill done quickly will give households and businesses incredible certainty.


• In negotiations regarding taxes, House and Senate are moving quickly on everything.

White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair Miran: 

• Non-tariff barriers from the EU are an issue; it is better to negotiate than not negotiate.


• If countries sent cheques to US, that would be a "fruitful" outcome.


• Seems unlikely China would be willing to make a concession up front.


• When asked about additional 50% tariffs on China come into play, says it depends on the Chinese. China should offer concessions.


• Tariffs are a long term improvement for the US. Temporary uncertainty will come along with imposition of these policies.


• It is likely there will be some disruption in data going forward due to tariffs.


• Not any sign of layoffs in macroeconomic data.


• Deregulation and tax reform are still in the pipeline.


• Initial tariffs will raise hundreds of billions of dollars worth of revenue.


• Should go further than this, in his personal view.


• Using tariff revenue for tax relief would be a good idea.


• Thinks US will see no tax on tips and social security. Optimistic will see further tax relief beyond that too.

FORECASTS

• 
  Morgan Stanley cut US 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.8% Q/Q (prev. 1.5%); not forecast a US recession, but the gap between sluggish growth outlook and a downturn has narrowed


• 
  Citi cut China's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.2% (prev. 4.7%)


• 
  UBS Global Research cut UK 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.4ppts to 0.7%


• 
  JPMorgan now expects back-to-back interest rate cuts from the ECB in the next four meetings to reach a terminal rate of 1.5%. JPMorgan sees an additional hit of 0.5% to EZ GDP, taking the total GDP hit from the trade war to 1.5% by end-2026, which still allows EZ to avoid a recession.

"LIBERATION DAY"

OVERVIEW

• US President Trump said for nations that treat the US badly, they will calculate the total rate charged, including non-monetary barriers and will charge them half of that rate and therefore won't be reciprocal.


• Accordingly, he announced the US is to apply a 20% tariff on imports from EU, 34% tariff on imports from China, 26% tariff on imports from India, 25% tariff on imports from South Korea, 10% tariff on imports from UK and 24% tariff on imports from Japan. Trump also stated that the baseline tariff is 10% and announced 25% auto tariffs, while Canada and Mexico were not subject to reciprocal tariffs for now. (Details below)


• US President Trump's tariff order exempts gold, according to Reuters citing a White House fact sheet.


• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said will have to wait and see on negotiations of tariffs and advised countries not to panic or retaliate, while he added the latest tariffs are at the high end of the number if there is no retaliation.


• 
  US senior official said the baseline tariffs rate will go into effect on April 5th at 00:01EDT and reciprocal tariffs will go into effect on April 9th at 00:01EDT, while President Trump’s automobile tariffs took effect 00:01EDT on April 3rd, according to the Federal Register.

NOTE: 

• 
  Metal Tariffs - The US has excluded steel, aluminium, and gold from reciprocal tariffs, providing some relief to domestic buyers who are already paying 25% duties on these key metals used in industries like automobiles and appliances. A Senior White House official also noted that products covered by section 232 tariffs, including autos, steel, aluminium, copper and lumber will not be included.


• 
  Pharma Tariffs - The pharmaceutical industry received a temporary reprieve from the sweeping tariffs announced by President Trump, though the relief may be short-lived as the White House plans additional levies on pharmaceutical imports in the future, Bloomberg reports.

MARKET REACTION:

• Global markets are risk-off following US President Trump's aggressive tariff announcement, with US and European equity futures falling, and Asian stocks tumbling.


• The US 10yr yield dropped to a five-month low with the inflation implications currently dwarfed by the mass risk-aversion in the market.


• Fed pricing looks for 82bps of easing by year-end vs. 76bps yesterday morning.


• Investors have sought safe-haven assets like gold and the JPY with the former hitting another ATH.


• European stocks (Stoxx 600 -1.2%) are lower after the tariff announcement, which includes a 20% levy on the EU; the EU has vowed to retaliate against the US' tariff plans; France Thursday said that the EU will likely respond to the tariffs in mid-April, and again in late-April. reiterating that it could target US digital services.


• US futures are markedly lower: ES -3%, NQ -3.4%, RTY -4.1%.


• Overnight, Chinese stocks trimmed early losses, with traders anticipating that the government would implement further measures to support the economy in wake of Trump's tariff announcements.

US OFFICIALS' NOTABLE COMMENTS (Before US cash open)

US Commerce Secretary Lutnick 

• Only way these rates are going up are is if countries retaliate.


• Why wasn't Russia on the list, due to sanctions on as that is also the case for Cuba, North Korea, and Belarus.


• Why Mexico and Canada absent from reciprocal, they are on a rule set for fentanyl. USMCA exempt.


• When asked what is the tariff number on China, says 20% fentanyl tariffs, the regular trade deficit number is 34% so confirms the total is 54%. 


• Section 301 products, they also have a separate 25% tariffs, so some Chinese products will have a 79% tariff.


• 20% China tariff would drop if Xi offers fentanyl cut.


• When asked if the administration will change course on tariffs if the market tanks, says "No... this is a reordering of global trade".


• Long-term and medium-term US markets are going to do extremely well.


• In the medium and long term markets will do very well, expects most countries to examine their trade policies.


• Talking with all major countries in the world. US products are going to have to be sold there. Key thing is will they take US agriculture products. Countries need to change their rules to allow US agricultural products in.


• Asked about exemptions if agricultural products are allowed in, says exemptions is not the right word, does not think there will be exemptions, wants US to be treated fairly.


• It will not be effective for countries to retaliate against Trump tariffs.


• Overall, interest rates in US will be much lower, production will be much higher.


• USMCA is still in place, with very little tariffs on those countries.


• Lutnick questions why Apple's (AAPL) iPhones need to be made in Asia.

US Agricultural Secretary Rollins

• She is confident that discussions will result in deals to lower tariffs abroad, via FBN.

US VP Vance

• Continuing to work on a TikTok deal, deal will come before the deadline - do not want to get ahead of the President on this. Thinks we are in a good place on it. Reiterates the announcement will be before the deadline, President will make the announcement.


• Making a lot of progress (on the US economy), still a lot to do.


• Things will not be fixed overnight, via Fox News; taxes will be cut, Americans will have "more money in their pockets".

REACTIONS TO "LIBERATION DAY"

CHINA

• China's Commerce Ministry said China firmly opposes US reciprocal tariffs and will resolutely take countermeasures to safeguard its rights and interests, while it urged the US to immediately cancel unilateral tariff measures and properly resolve differences with trading partners through equal dialogue.


• 
  Fitch downgraded China to "A" from "A+"; outlook Stable; Fitch says "the tariff rise has been much more drastic, and China will still be affected by a broader tariff-induced global slowdown"

EU

• European Commission President von der Leyen said US tariffs are a major blow to the world economy and the consequences will be dire for millions of people around the world. Von der Leyen added that they are prepared to respond and are preparing further countermeasures on US tariffs if negotiations fail. Von der Leyen said the EU is preparing for further countermeasures to protect its interests and businesses if negotiations fail. EU retaliation may take about a month and a half to implement at the earliest.


• Senior EU Official says EU Members are set to vote on April 9th on countermeasures to US steel and aluminium tariffs.


• EU senior official said that the first set of retaliatory tariffs on US goods will be implemented on April 15th, second set won't come into effect until mid-May, via WSJ


• 
  Germany and France push for a more aggressive tariff response, advocating for a forceful retaliation that could strengthen the EU's negotiation power, via Bloomberg.


• 
  FRANCE: French government said there will likely be a first response to the Trump-tariffs in mid-April and another late-April, and added they will respond along with Europe, and reiterated could target digital services - added that "we are ready in this trade war".


• 
  ITALY: Italian PM Meloni said US tariffs are wrong and she hopes to work with the US and Europe to avoid a trade war that would weaken the West.

UK

• UK Business Secretary said their approach to Trump's tariff announcement is to remain 'calm and committed' to doing economic deals with the US, while they have a range of tools at their disposal and will not hesitate to act.


• UK Business Minister Reynolds said the government will not rethink its fiscal rules because of the US tariffs.


• UK Business Minister Reynolds said he is launching a request for input from British business on the implications of retaliatory action on tariffs.


• UK Business Minister Reynolds sets May 1st deadline for consultation on potential retaliatory tariffs. Says action will be 'paused' if deal is struck with US in the meantime.

CANADA

• Canadian PM Carney said US President Trump's tariff announcement has preserved a number of important elements of their relationship, but said they are going to fight these tariffs with countermeasures and will act with purpose and with force, while he added Canada will respond to US tariffs on Thursday.

AUSTRALIA

• Australian PM Albanese said US tariffs are totally unwarranted and Australia will not impose reciprocal tariffs, while they will continue to make the case for these unjustified tariffs to be removed from exporters. Albanese added the free trade agreement with the US does have dispute resolution mechanisms and they want this to be resolved in a way that avoids those contests.

LOGISTICS: 

• Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG GY) said there is increasing uncertainty due to imposed US tariffs and potential reciprocal tariffs from various nations. Tariffs could impact demand, cargo flows and costs - as such, may have to adj. the service network.  Overall duration and impact of measures is hard to estimate at this point.


• Sales of French wine/spirits are expected to fall by a minimum of 20% in the US after the Trump tariff measures, according to FEVS (French wine/spirit export body).

HOUSE VIEWS ON "LIBERATION DAY"

• 
  Barclays: Barclays says it sees a "high risk" of the US economy falling into a recession this year. Expects 2025 US GDP growth to contract 0.1% Q/Q.


• 
  Goldman Sachs: The latest US tariffs would further drag China's GDP growth by around 1 percentage point, taking the total drag to 1.7 percentage points.


• 
  UBS Global Wealth Management: Expects the Fed to deliver 75-100bps of rate cuts over the remainder of the year; notes even if tariffs are reduced by year end, near term shock is likely to drive a near term slowdown in the US economy.


• 
  Bloomberg: Bloomberg analysis suggests the tariff on all imports for China (54% tariff) will impact its GDP by 2.3%, for EU (20% tariff) GDP 1.1%, and for UK GDP (10% tariff) 0.2%.


• 
  Morgan Stanley: Morgan Stanley no longer expects the Fed to cut rates in June 2025, due to "tariff-induced inflation". Now expect the Fed to remain on hold until March 2026.  MS said that if tariffs persist, US economic growth may suffer, with downside risks increasing. Effective tariffs could reach 22% versus 3% at the year's start, raising inflation risks and keeping the Fed from cutting rates in June. That said, it notes that legal challenges under IEEPA remain uncertain.   MS recommends positioning for lower Treasury yields and a stronger JPY.


• 
  Citi: Citi estimates the tariff announcements will drive a 9% negative impact to Apple's (AAPL) total gross margins as a result of the 34% reciprocal tariff rate, given it has 90% of its manufacturing in China (Citi kept AAPL at a Buy rating, with a USD 275 PT).


• 
  JPMorgan:  Downgraded emerging market currencies to underweight after US President Trump's tariffs "exceeded the worst case scenario".


• 
  CapEco: "The obvious winners were Canada and Mexico, which will still be subject to 25% tariffs but only on non-USMCA compliant imports into the US. Assuming the share of USMCA compliant shipments from both countries will quickly rise to ~80%, that implies an effective tariff of closer to 5%."


• 
  Wedbush: Wedbush said that the Trump tariff announcement was "worse than the worst case scenario" for Wall Street; Wedbush said tech stocks like Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA) will face "major pressure" on the announcement, as the worries about demand destruction and supply chains.

"LIBERATION DAY" HEADLINES

• WSJ confirmed Treasury Secretary Bessent's message to lawmakers was today's tariffs could go down and are not likely to go up; "Whether Trump agrees with this assessment, however, remains to be seen".


• Trump Administration considering revocation of tariff exemptions for cheap shipments from China, according to Reuters citing a source.


• US President Trump is considering announcing today his plan for what he calls the “External Revenue Service," and is aiming to again charge tariffs on low-value merchandise shipped from China to individual US consumers, via CBS.

EUROPE:

• French government spokeswoman says France is expecting powerful Trump tariffs in the range of 20-25%.


• 
  EU is reportedly planning emergency measures to guard the economy from US President Trump tariffs, via Bloomberg. Working on short-term support proposals alongside plans to advance competitiveness and reform in key sectors. Measures will be dependent on the US announcement.

CHINA:

• China is said to restrict companies from investing in the US as it aims to give Beijing more leverage for potential trade negotiations with the Trump administration, via Bloomberg citing sources.

MEXICO:

• Mexican President Sheinbaum says it will not impose tit for tat tariffs; Mexico will gradually comply with US water treaty after criticism from US State Department.

"LIBERATION DAY" EVE HEADLINES

• 
  White House aides have drafted a proposal to impose tariffs of around 20% (prev. touted 15%) on at least most imports to the United States, according to WaPo sources. Several options are on the table and no final decision has been made. One option would raise import duties on products from virtually every country, rejecting more targeted approaches. If combined with additional tariffs on sectors such as automobile and pharmaceutical imports, raise more than USD 6tln. Administration officials are also discussing using this revenue to finance a tax rebate or dividend payment to most Americans; planning is "highly preliminary". The White House is also still considering an order that would apply a different tariff rate to individual countries.


• 
  US President Trump said we will see tariff details maybe Tuesday night or on Wednesday which are going to be nice in comparison to other countries and in some cases, they may be substantially lower. Trump also stated that many countries have been looting the US and they will stop that on April 2nd, as well as noted there will be investments worth USD 5tln in the US. Furthermore, he stated that TikTok is not tied to a larger tariff deal but could be.


• 
  US President Trump is said to be still deciding which plan he will take for reciprocal tariffs and has been presented with "multiple" tariff plans, according to administration sources cited by FBN's Lawrence, while sources said Trump will likely not make the decision on which plan until right before April 2nd or on that morning.


• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said President Trump will announce reciprocal tariffs at 15:00EDT/20:00BST on Wednesday. However, the White House later announced it would be at 16:00EDT/21:00BST.


• White House Press Secretary Leavitt stated there will be a Rose Garden event on Wednesday for the Trump tariff plan and that Trump is committed to sectoral tariffs.


• White House spokesperson said no exemptions at this time when asked about tariff exemptions for farmers and any country that has treated the US unfairly should expect to receive a tariff.

EUROPE

• 
  EU is mulling targeting big US tech firms in response to Trump tariffs, via WaPo citing sources/officials; one official suggested that the bloc could unite on "some partial measures against American services".


• France is reportedly pushing for a tougher response which includes digital services.


• Other nations such as Italy remain opposed believing it will only cause further US escalation.


• "European officials cautioned that there is no agreed-on hit list of digital services."


• "European officials concede that measures against companies like Google (GOOGL) or Meta (META) could escalate the trade war, but they say Trump has shifted the goalposts."


• 
  "European officials are also discussing possible trade concessions"; could be willing to reverse some of the countermeasures announced after the US' aluminium/steel tariffs.


• WaPo reminds us that the bloc has already signalled a willingness to reduce the 10% tariff on US autos and increase the purchase of US-made LNG.

PRE-"LIBERATION DAY" WEEKEND HEADLINES

US' BROADER TARIFFS

• 
  US President Trump is said to be pushing senior advisers to go bigger on tariff policy as they prepare for ‘Liberation Day’ on April 2nd and reportedly revived the idea of a flat universal tariff single rate on most imports, according to Washington Post. It was also noted that the option viewed as most likely, publicly outlined by Treasury Secretary Bessent this month, would set tariffs on products from the 15% of countries the administration deems the worst US trading partners which account for almost 90% of imports.
  


• 
  US President Trump said he will hit essentially all countries that they're talking about with tariffs this week and commented that there will be a deal on TikTok before the deadline, according to Reuters.


• 
  US President Trump’s closest allies including Vice President Vance, Chief of Staff Wiles and cabinet officials have privately indicated they are unsure exactly what President Trump will do during the April 2nd announcement of global tariffs, according to Politico.

US AUTO TARIFFS

• 
  US President Trump’s recent 25% auto tariff announcement made no mention of USMCA trade deal side letters shielding Canada and Mexico from potential auto tariffs which showed Canada and Mexico were each granted annual duty-free import quotas of 2.6mln cars and unlimited light trucks if Trump imposed global tariffs. Furthermore, Canada said it fully expects the US to honour the 2018 tariff pledges and it reserves the right to take retaliatory measures, while Mexico is evaluating the legal implications of the agreement on Trump’s ‘Section 232’ auto tariff probe.
  


• 
  US President Trump’s Trade Adviser Navarro said auto tariffs will raise about USD 100bln and the other tariffs are to raise about USD 600bln a year, according to a Fox interview.

UK

• 
  UK PM Starmer spoke with US President Trump on Sunday evening in which they discussed productive negotiations between their respective teams on a UK-US economic prosperity deal and agreed that these will continue at pace this week. It was also reported that UK Home Secretary Cooper refused to rule out retaliating to US tariffs on cars and steel, according to Bloomberg.

FRANCE

• French Ministry of Foreign Trade said France and Europe will defend their businesses, consumers and values, while it added that US interference in the inclusion policies of French companies is unacceptable.


• French Commerce Minister reiterated that France would implement reciprocal tariffs if the US goes ahead with its tariff measures this week. Hoping to avoid a trade war. The Minister intends to have talks with the US Embassy in Paris to voice opposition to the US' order for French firms to comply with a diversity band.

GERMANY

• 
  German Chancellor Scholz said they stand by Canada’s side and that Canada is not a state that belongs to anyone else, while he added that Europe’s goal is cooperation but the EU will respond as one if the US leaves them with no choice such as with tariffs on steel and aluminium.

CHINA

• 
  China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi said higher US tariffs on Chinese goods are unreasonable and harm global markets. (Comments made in China's Tuesday session).

LATAM

• 
  Brazil’s President Lula said he will negotiate on tariffs before retaliating, according to Bloomberg. It was also reported that Brazil’s Finance Minister Haddad said the country is in a privileged position to withstand the trade war with the commodity exporter’s links to China, the US and the EU to shield it from protectionism, according to FT.

OTHER RECENT HEADLINES: 

28th March

• EU plans concessions for Trump after reciprocal tariffs hit, according to Bloomberg sources


• Chinese State Media says China will "certainly respond with countermeasures if the US insists on harming China's interests regarding the April 2nd tariffs"; if they want to discuss cooperation with China, mutual respect is a prerequisite.


• US President Trump and Canada PM Carney held a very constructive phone call, according to both sides; Carney told Trump he will implement retaliatory tariffs.


• US President Trump says will be announcing pharma tariffs soon; is willing to make deals on tariffs, deals on averting auto tariffs would come later.

27th March

• US President Trump posted on Truth "If the European Union works with Canada in order to do economic harm to the USA, large scale Tariffs, far larger than currently planned, will be placed on them both"


• Canadian PM Carney says its response to these latest tariffs is to fight; they will fight the US tariffs with retaliatory trade actions of its own; clear US is no longer a reliable partner

26th March

• US President Trump may implement copper tariffs within weeks, according to Bloomberg


• The US will reportedly not take all non-tariff barriers (e.g. VAT) in determining reciprocal Tariff rates, according to CNBC


• EU Top Trade Negotiator Sefcovic expects US President Trump to hit the bloc with tariffs of about 20% next week, via FT.


• EU expects Trump to set flat, double-digit tariff on April 2nd, according to Politico; According to two diplomats, suggested the tariff rate applied to the EU could be as high as 20 or 25%


• US President Trump considers more limited tariff plans, automotive tariffs could be narrowed and reciprocal tariffs lowered in latest administration proposals, via WSJ


• US President Trump announces to impose 25% tariffs on all cars not made in the US, while he said they will be doing tariffs on pharmaceuticals and tariffs on lumber


• China's Vice Premier He Lifeng spoke with USTR's Greer by video call, via Xinhua; Both sides had candid and in depth exchange of views on economy and trade. China expressed solemn concerns on US tariffs and planned reciprocal tariffs.

25th March

• India is reportedly open to cutting tariffs on over half of US imports, worth USD 23bln, via Reuters citing sources; open to cutting tariffs to as low as 0 from a 5-30% range on 55% of US imports


• India proposes to remove the 6% tariff imposed on online advertisement services offered by companies such as Google (GOOG) and Meta (META), known widely as the Google tax, from April 1st which is a day before Trump's reciprocal tariffs take effect.


• US President Trump considers a two-step tariff regime on April 2nd, according to FT; Possible phased approach to new US levies reflects debate over trade strategy within administration.


• US President Trump says he has April 2nd tariffs set, and he has been fair to countries that abused US for many decades

24th March: 

• Trump implements secondary tariff on Venezuela; anyone who buys oil/gas from Venezuela will face an additional 25% tariff on all US trade.


• US President Trump says they will be announcing tariffs on autos, aluminium and pharmaceuticals in the very near future.


• Trump says he will announce additional tariffs over the next few days on autos, lumber, and chips


• Trump says he may give a lot of countries breaks on tariffs.

22nd March (weekend)

• President Donald Trump’s coming wave of tariffs is poised to be more targeted than the barrage he has occasionally threatened, aides and allies say, a potential relief for markets gripped by anxiety about an all-out tariff war. (Bloomberg)

21st March

• France reportedly to float using EU’s most powerful trade tool on US, according to Bloomberg


• US President Trump says there will be flexibility on tariffs, basically it's reciprocal; they can't be expected to carry Canada.


• UK government reportedly considering plans to reduce or even abolish its digital services tax before April 2nd, via Bloomberg.

20th March

• US President Trump says he believes India is probably going to be lowering tariffs substantially but on April 2nd, we will be charging them the same tariffs they charge us


• EU's Trade Commissioner Sefcovic says the Commission is considering delaying first set of counter-tariffs against the US to mid-April

19th March

• US President Trump's aides are planning new tariffs on “trillions” more in imports on April 2nd, according to WaPo


• EU is reportedly to tighten steel import quotas as of April 1st, via Reuters citing sources; to reduce inflows by 15%

18th March

• US President Trump's team reportedly explored a simplified plan for reciprocal tariffs in which they recently debated sorting trading partners into one of three tiers instead of equalising tariff rates with every nation, according to WSJ

17th March: 

• US President Trump says he has no intention of creating exemptions on steel and aluminium tariffs, while he adds reciprocal tariffs will happen on April 2nd


• USTR's Greer imposes policy process on reciprocal tariff plan; President Trump’s top trade negotiator is attempting to inject order into sweeping new tariffs expected next month, after previous announcements roiled markets and fueled business uncertainty


• India reportedly weighs lower tariffs for US medical devices, according to Economic Times

13th March: 

• Trump said the EU put a 50% tariff on whiskey, if this is not removed, the US will place a 200% tariff on wines, champagnes and other alcoholic products coming out of France and other EU represented countries.


• Canada's Ontario Premier says they had a productive meeting with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and will have another meeting next week, adds feel temperatures are decreasing and it was the best meeting they had since tariff talks began

STEEL AND ALUMINIUM TARIFFS IMPLEMENTED MARCH 12TH

• 
  US steel and aluminium tariffs: US President Trump's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium took effect with no exemptions.


• 
  50% Canada tariff rollback: US President Trump said he respects Ontario's decision to suspend the 25% energy surcharge, while he said he was looking at backing down on the 50% duties on Canada and may back off doubling steel and aluminium Canada tariffs.


• 
  Broader tariff commentary: Trump separately commented that tariffs are having and will have a tremendously positive impact, while he also suggested tariffs may go higher than 25% but did not specify which tariffs.

24 Apr 2025 - 07:30- MetalsGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk