[ROLLING ANALYSIS] Tariff Update: The session before the US tariff negotiation deadline at 12:01 ET

Broader Tariffs

• To come into effect at 12:01 ET on 1st August (05:01 BST).


• CNBC expects a fresh updated list from the White House on tariff levels.


• China, India, Canada and Mexico remain the risks.


• US President Trump plans to sign new executive orders on Thursday, imposing higher tariff rates on several countries that have been unable to reach negotiated trade agreements by Friday deadline, while this could include a number of America's biggest trading partners, including Canada, Mexico and Taiwan, according to POLITICO.

China

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said China are tough negotiators, "We have the makings of a deal with China. We pushed back on them quite a bit.", "Will speak to Trump Thursday about August 12th deadline, says he is confident it will be done", Still a few technical details to work out with China. Treasury market has not featured in negotiations. Magnets are flowing.


• China has reportedly stopped the approval of outbound investment for firms who are seeking to create/expand operations within the US, via Nikkei citing sources; local governments, state planner and NDRC have reportedly ceased approvals since April.

South Korea

• US President Trump announced that the US has agreed to a "Full and Complete Trade Deal" with South Korea in which South Korea will give the United States USD 350bln for investments owned and controlled by the US, and selected by Trump, while South Korea will also purchase USD 100bln of LNG, or other energy products and South Korea has also agreed to invest a large sum of money for their Investment purposes with this sum to be announced within the next two weeks when the President Lee comes to the White House for a bilateral meeting. Trump added "It is also agreed that South Korea will be completely OPEN TO TRADE with the United States, and that they will accept American product including Cars and Trucks, Agriculture, etc. We have agreed to a Tariff for South Korea of 15%. America will not be charged a Tariff."


• South Korean Presidential Office confirmed US lowered tariffs on South Korean autos to 15% from 25%, while it added that chips and drug tariffs will not be worse than those applied to other countries and stated that USD 200bln of funds are allocated for chips, nuclear power, batteries, and bio sectors. Furthermore, it stated that the rice and beef market will not be opened and that South Korea demanded 12.5% auto tariffs but President Trump insisted on 15%.

India

• US President Trump threatened a 25% levy plus penalty for the purchase of Russian crude.


• India is reportedly mulling options to appease US President Trump following a "shock" 25% tariff level, according to Bloomberg sources; India reportedly mulling upping its natgas purchases from the US, and imports of communication equipment and gold.


• Indian state refiners reportedly paused Russian oil purchases in the past week amid narrowing discounts and tariff threats from US President Trump, according to Reuters sources.

Canada

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said will be negotiating with Canada on aluminium tariffs.  Aluminium tariffs hit Ford (F) harder. Ford has been idiosyncratic.

Mexico

• US President Trump will discuss Mexico's plan to cut trade deficit with Mexican President Sheinbaum on Thursday ahead of the August 1st deadline.


• US President Trump and Mexico's President Sheinbaum are scheduled to speak this morning, Mexico is set to present its tariff proposal, a day ahead of Trump's Aug. 1 deadline, according to CBS' Jacobs

TARIFF BREAKDOWN [UPDATED]

TARIFF TIMELINE [UPDATED]

• 
  February 1st - Trump signed an executive order to impose 10% tariffs on all imports from China and 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada starting Feb 4th.


• 
  February 3rd - Trump agreed to a 30-day pause on tariffs against Canada and Mexico.


• 
  February 4th - US additional 10% tariff on China on top of existing levies came into effect. Chinese export controls on tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum and indium took effect (no specific countries mentioned).


• 
  February 10th - Chinese tariffs against the US took effect (15% tariffs on US coal & LNG, 10% tariffs on US oil).


• 
  February 13th - Trump signed his plan for reciprocal tariffs, albeit delayed the implementation.


• 
  March 4th - Tariff pause on Mexico and Canada expired; Additional 10% tariffs on China went into effect on top of Feb 4th tariffs. Canada announced retaliatory tariffs over 21 days, Mexico said it will also respond with retaliatory tariffs.


• 
  March 5th - Trump allowed a one-month exemption on Mexico and Canada tariffs of US automakers following talks with Ford (F), General Motors (GM) and Stellantis (STLAM IM/STLAP FP)


• 
  March 6th - Trump postponed the initial 25% tariffs on several imports from Mexico and some imports from Canada for a month. In response, Canada suspended its second wave of retaliatory tariffs.


• 
  March 10th - China's retaliatory tariffs on certain US agricultural imports (15% on US chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton; 10% on US soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products) went into effect; announced on March 4th in response to the extra 10% US tariff on top of Feb 4th tariffs.


• 
  March 11th - Trump threatened 50% tariffs on Canada, although he later backed down from this threat after Ontario's Premier announced they are suspending the 25% surcharge on exports of electricity. Trump separately suggested tariffs may go higher than 25% but did not specify which tariffs.


• 
  March 12th - 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports came into effect, with "no exceptions or exemptions"; European Commission launched countermeasures on US imports while it is putting forward a package of new countermeasures.


• 
  April 1st - Completion of the US trade policy review.


• 
  April 2nd - US Liberation Day; Baseline Tariff on 10% announces + retaliatory tariffs for worst offenders.


• 
  April 4th - China announced 34% reciprocal tariffs against US' "Liberation Day" levies; China announced further export controls on rare metals.


• 
  April 5th - Deadline for US-China TikTok deal; European Commission expected to finalised its proposed response to the US.


• 
  April 7th -  EU Commission proposed 25% tariff on US goods to take effect from May 16th and some on Dec 1st. 
  


• 
  April 7th - US President Trump threatened an additional 50% levy on China on top of the post-"Liberation Day" 54% tariff. 
  


• 
  April 9th - EU members vote on countermeasures to US steel and aluminium tariffs; reciprocal tariffs came into effect alongside 104% tariff on China.
  


• 
  April 10th - China's 84% levy on US goods came into effect
  


• 
  April 10th - EU suspended retaliation to US steel and aluminium tariffs for 90 days. 
  


• 
  April 11th - China raised 84% levy against the US to 125%.
  


• 
  April 11th - US exemption announced for semiconductors; US has exempted smartphones, computers and some other electronic devices from reciprocal tariffs.


• 
  April 12/13th - White House clarifies chip tariffs are decoupled from reciprocal tariffs; Trump warned no country would be getting "off the hook".


• 
  April 24th - US-South Korea trade talks at 08:00EDT/13:00BST.


• 
  April 30th - Japanese Economic Minister Akazawa plans to visit the US for tariff talks.


• 
  May 1st - UK deadline for consultation on potential retaliatory tariffs.


• 
  May 2nd - De Minimis trade loophole ends.


• 
  May 6th - UK reached free trade agreement with India; India to cut tariffs on 90% of UK imports, with 85% of those becoming tariff-free within decade; India to halve whisky and gin tariffs for UK imports to 75%, cut auto tariffs to 10% under a quota.


• 
  May 6th - US and Canada had "constructive" talks.


• 
  May 8th - UK/US trade agreement announced.


• 
  May 9th - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to visit Switzerland (May 9th-12th).


• 
  May 10th/11th - US Treasury Secretary Bessent met with the Chinese trade team on Saturday in Switzerland.
  


• 
  May 12th - Chinese Vice Premier in France for economic and financial dialogue (May 12-16th).


• May 12th - US agrees to cut China tariffs to 30% (from 145%) and China agrees to cut US tariffs to 10% (from 125%).


• 
  May 19th - EU-UK summit in London.


• 
  May 23rd - Trump threatens 50% tariffs on EU from June 1st; and 25% against Apple (AAPL)


• 
  May 26th - Trump delay's 50% EU tariff to July 9th.


• 
  May 28th - US federal court ruled Trump’s global “Liberation Day” tariffs (announced April 2) are unlawful; the Court says only Congress can impose tariffs.


• 
  May 29th - US appeals court temporarily reinstates US President Trump tariffs during appeal.


• 
  May 30th - Trump's advisers are considering a stopgap tariff regime if the court appeal against the tariff block fails, according to WSJ.


• 
  May 30th - Japan-US trade talks.


• 
  May 30th - Trump says China has "totally violated its agreement with us".


• 
  May 30th - Trump increases steel and aluminium tariffs to 50% from 25% effective June 4th.


• 
  May/June - Potential US pharmaceutical tariffs.


• 
  June 4th - 50% steel and aluminium tariffs comes into effect.


• 
  June 4th - Trump's administration wants countries' "best offer" in tariff talks.
  


• 
  June 17th - Trade deal with UK announced.


• 
  July 2nd - Trade deal with Vietnam announced.


• 
  July 8th - 90-day tariff lowering for "worst offenders" expires after 8th Jul.


• 
  July 8th - White House announced that President Trump signed an executive order extending the tariff deadline to August 1st.
  


• 
  July 11th - Trump imposes 35% tariff on Canada.


• 
  July 14th - US tariffs on Mexican agriculture goes into effect.


• 
  July 14th - Existing and additional EU measures will take effect.


• 
  July 22nd - Trade deal with Indonesia and Philippines announced.


• 
  July 23rd - Trade deal with Japan announced.


• 
  July 27th - EU-US trade deal announced.


• 
  July 28-29th - US-China meeting in Sweden; No updates


• 
  July 31st - US-South Korea Trade deal announced


• 
  August 1st - Extended tariff deadline expires.


• August 12th - US-China tariff relief expires.


• 
  August 31st - US reportedly extends the tariff pause on some Chinese goods to August 31st, according to Bloomberg

31 Jul 2025 - 14:40- Research Sheet- Source: Newsquawk