[ROLLING ANALYSIS] Explosions in NATO-territory Poland from alleged Russian-made missiles

Analysis details (01:42)

SITUATION REPORT:

• Poland will reportedly not request NATO activate Article 4, according to local press reported in the late European morning,


• There were reports of at least two dead after missiles landed in NATO state Poland on the border with Ukraine.


• 
  Polish Foreign Ministry said a "Russian-made" rocket landed in a Polish village at 15:40 local time.


• 
  Polish President said there is no definitive evidence of who fired the rocket that fell onto the village and added that what happened was a one-off incident and there are no indications that it will happen again.


• 
  Russia denied aiming missiles near the Ukraine-Poland border, according to TASS.


• Russia's Defence Ministry said statements by Polish media and officials about the Russian missiles hitting Polish territory are a deliberate provocation with the aim of escalating the situation, according to Interfax.


• Kremlin spokesperson said he has no information on the incident in Poland, via Reuters.


• 
  Local Polish media reports citing sources said what hit Przewowo is most likely the remains of a rocket shot down by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, via Radio Zet.


• 
  US President Biden said there is prelim information that contests whether the Poland incident was due to a missile fired from Russia; "said it was “unlikely” the fatal rocket strike in Poland originated in Russia but acknowledged a full investigation is needed." (Via CNBC)


• 
  US official says initial findings suggest missile that hit Poland was fired by Ukrainian forces at incoming Russian missile, according to AP

POLAND’S REACTION:

• Polish PM decided to increase monitoring of air space, whilst a Polish government spokesperson said the country is raising readiness of military units.


• 
  Polish President said Poland will likely activate Article 4 of the NATO Treaty on Wednesday at the NATO meeting.

NATO TREATY:

ARTICLE 4:

• Invoking the article is a significant step in intensifying discussions between members, but it does not guarantee NATO will take action.
  


• Discussions will then occur within the alliance on whether the threat exists and how to counter it.


• Consultations continue until a unanimous decision is reached - there is no voting within the alliance.

ARTICLE 5:

• Also known as “Collective defence”, means that an attack against one ally is considered an attack against all allies.


• If Moscow is blamed for the blast, there is a non-zero chance that Article 5 is invoked which could lead to a potential military response by NATO.


• Article 5 was only once invoked following the 9/11 attacks.

EMERGENCY MEETINGS:

• NATO emergency meeting re. Poland incident will commence at 09:00GMT/04:00ET, according to a European diplomat; NATO SecGen Stoltenberg to hold a presser at 11:30GMT/06:30


• 
  G7 leaders organised a snap meeting in Bali on the situation – little information was released to the press. A reporter asked President Biden if he could share what he knew so far about the explosion in Poland, to which the president replied, “No.”, according to CBS.

NATO REACTIONS:

• 
  Senior US Intelligence official said Russian missiles crossed into Poland, killing two, according to AFP, but US Pentagon said it cannot corroborate reports of two Russian missiles crossing into Poland at this time, according to Reuters.


• 
  French Defence Ministry said President Macron has asked to carry out necessary verification work following the explosions in Poland close to the Ukrainian border.


• 
  NATO chief Stoltenberg said NATO is monitoring the situation is Poland and allies are closely consulting.


• 
  Czech PM said if Poland confirms that missiles also hit its territory, it will be a further escalation by Russia.


• 
  Latvian Defense Minister said NATO could provide air defences to Poland and part of the territory of Ukraine.

MAP:

16 Nov 2022 - 10:47- Geopolitical- Source: Newsquawk