[PRIMER] TAIWANESE ELECTIONS ON JANUARY 13TH

Analysis details (08:08)

OVERVIEW

MARKET IMPLICATIONS

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  1. Current Vice President Lai Ching-te (or William Lai) of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is narrowly front-running the race. Lai is looking to succeed outgoing President Tsai. Beijing has been critical of Lai and his pro-independence stance. Lai’s Vice President candidate has served as Taiwan’s de-factor ambassador to the US. Lai seeks to shore up relations with the US, and Europe, alongside other democracies. Domestically, Lai is most appealing to independence supporters, but he has also been popular with centrist voters in the past.


  2. Hou Yu-ih from the Kuomintang (KMT) party – Lai’s main rival – has a friendlier stance towards Beijing and advocates talks with the Chinese Communist Party to lower cross-strait tensions. Hou has in the past been a subject of scepticism and tensions from pro-Chinese hardliners within his party for not being of Chinese descent. That being said, desks suggest he appeals to voters outside the party’s traditional base, which consists of mainland immigrants and Chinese descendants.


  3. Ko Wen-Je from The Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) claims neutrality on the China stance, whilst the candidate is also said to be popular among the younger voters. Ko dubbed himself as a “rational” and “scientific” technocrat and has focused more on domestic concerns such as energy and housing than relations with China, according to The Economist, which also suggests his China policies are closer to that of the KMT party.

POLLS: There is a ten-day blackout period on polls in Taiwan in the run-up to the elections. The latest poll via the Economist (updated on January 2nd) shows DPP’s Lai leading with 36%, KMT's Hou second with 31% and TPP's Ko trailing with 24%.

PROCESS:

09 Jan 2024 - 08:15- EquitiesResearch Sheet- Source: Newsquawk

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