[PRIMER] OPEC International Seminar on Wednesday 5th and Thursday 6th July.

Analysis details (07:35)

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  BRIEF OVERVIEW: OPEC+ energy ministers and oil industry CEOs are set to convene at the 8th OPEC International Seminar to deliberate on issues such as global energy security, energy transition plans, and the investment challenges facing the industry. This is NOT a decision-making ministerial meeting, although OPEC+ has a tendency to tweak policy whenever they see fit.


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  THE EVENT: The seminar, titled "Towards a Sustainable and Inclusive Energy Transition," is recognized for its high-profile participants and in-depth discussions on leading energy sector issues, particularly crucial given the current global industry situation.

SCHEDULE OF NOTABLE SPEAKERS (Full agenda here) :

Wednesday:

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  09:00BST/04:00EDT – OPEC Secretary General Al Ghais to speak at the Opening Ceremony.


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  09:50BST/04:50EDT – Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz to partake in a special introductory session.


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  10:40BST/05:40EDT – UAE Energy Minister Al Mazrouei, Azeri Energy Minister Shahbazov, and Nigerian Energy Secretary Aduda to speak on “Market stability and energy security”.


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  13:50BST/08:50EDT –Kuwaiti Energy Minister Barrak, Iraqi Deputy Energy Minister Alsawad, Libyan Energy Minister Oun, and Iranian Energy Minister Owji to speak on “Investments, finance and inclusive petroleum growth strategies”

Thursday:

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  12:50BST/07:50EDT – UAE Energy Minister Al Mazrouei, and energy ministers from South Sudan, Gabon, and the Republic of Congo to speak on “Diversifying energy economies”.


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  14:50BST/09:50EDT - OPEC Secretary General Al Ghais to speak at the closing session.

A live stream will be made available here and on the Newsquawk feed closer to the time.

RECENT REPORTS:

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  Saudi Arabia will extend the voluntary cut of 1mln BPD for an additional month to include August which could be extended beyond that month, according to Reuters.


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  Russian Deputy PM Novak said they will cut oil production by an extra 500k bpd in August, on top of the same amount it had pledged to reduce from March until year-end, according to Reuters.


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  Russia also announced a planned reduction of exports by 500k BPD in August.


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  Algeria is to cut an additional 20k BPD of oil output (on top of the 48k BPD cut decided in April) to support efforts by Saudi and Russia to balance and stabilise oil markets, effective during August, according to the Energy Ministry.


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  Libya's Oil Minister welcomed the Saudi decision to extend its voluntary oil output cut of 1mln BPD.

HOUSE VIEW:

• Desks suggest Saudi Arabia's decision to extend its voluntary cut of 1mln BPD of oil supply from July into August was expected by the market, which is currently under a wave of negative sentiment.


• Surprisingly, Russia also announced a planned reduction of exports by 500k BPD in August, along with a similar cut in output. Additionally, Algeria will decrease its output by 20k BPD within the same period. These decisions initially prompted a positive market response, though this was short-lived.


• Had Saudi Arabia not continued its voluntary cuts, it would have put extra downward pressure on the market, desks say. As such, Saudi Arabia is facing a challenge in the coming months to gradually wind down this supply cut amidst the current market conditions, according to analysts. The market was surprised by Russia's announcement of cuts, but the implementation is viewed with scepticism, due to Russia's disappointing track record with similar reductions earlier this year.


• At present, oil prices are being influenced more by an uncertain macroeconomic outlook than by fundamentals, creating a stronger base for Brent at around USD 70/bbl, according to ING, who added that the pattern of range-bound trading is expected to continue in the short term. WTI resides just under USD 70.50/bbl while its Brent counterpart sits north of USD 75.00/bbl.

05 Jul 2023 - 07:35- EnergyResearch Sheet- Source: Newsquawk