[PRIMER] NATO, G7 and the European Council meetings on Thursday 24th/Friday 25th

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Analysis details (08:16)

OVERVIEW:

US President Biden will be joining European leaders during the first day of the European Council Summit. Defence and Security will be among the top topics and the date will mark one month since the war began. The meetings also come amid increasing violence inside Ukraine but closer to the Polish border – with the Ukrainian city of Lviv under fire last Friday – just over an hour’s drive from the border with NATO-member Poland. Western officials will likely continue to resist militarily offensive options whilst expressing solidarity with Ukraine and mulling over further sanctions, although some fear the West has exhausted a large part of its sanctions arsenal. The unity between the West will also be eyed as this will ultimately dictate the course of actions against Russia. EU leaders are also focusing on enforcement of sanctions and closing loopholes, according to Politico.

SCHEDULE:

NATO

(24th Mar)

• 06:45GMT/02:45EDT: Doorstep statement by the NATO Secretary-General


• 07:00GMT/03:00EDT: Arrivals of NATO members


• 12:15GMT/08:15EDT: Press conference

G7

(24th Mar)

• 13:00GMT/09:00EDT: Summit starts

EUROPEAN COUNCIL

(24th Mar)

• 14:00GMT/10:00EDT: Arrivals

(25th Mar)

• 08:00GMT/4:00EDT: Arrivals


• TBC: Press conference

US-EU MEETING:

(25th Mar)

• 08:00GMT/4:00EDT: US President Biden will meet with European Commission President von der Leyen

TOPICS

NATO, G7, EUROPEAN COUNCIL TOPICS

• Russia's military aggression against Ukraine


• Security and defence

EUROPEAN COUNCIL TOPICS

• Energy


• Economic issues


• COVID-19


• EU-China summit on 1st Apr

CONTEXT

ENERGY MEASURES: Eurasia’s Rahman suggested, “The threshold for energy import bans is very high”. However, the Biden Admin and EU are close to a deal that would cut dependence on Russian oil, with the US National Security Advisor suggesting a deal can come as soon as Friday. That being said, Times’ Waterfield reported that a “Big EU three-way split on energy means any deal on cutting dependency on Russian gas and bringing down soaring energy costs will not happen [on Thursday]”. Seemingly, The Netherlands and Germany are against the proposed price caps - "A Belgian so-called non-paper, seen by POLITICO, calls for a gas price cap at €120 per megawatt-hour, which could be pegged to American and Asian prices to remain competitive.", Politico recently reported. Meanwhile, a senior German official cited by EurasiaGroup’s Rahman “Berlin's opposition to energy sanctions is ‘unlikely to change’ unless Russia uses ‘chemical or nuclear weapons”.

RUBLE GAS PAYMENTS: Russian President Putin mid-week said hostile countries should pay Rubles for gas. Italian PM Draghi said paying in RUB would be a way for Russia to avoid sanctions, “Two other senior Western EU officials told [Politico] Playbook the EU could not possibly accept Putin’s demands and the bloc may ultimately have to stop buying Russian gas altogether... At the same time, German officials have warned that the EU could suffer more than Russia if energy imports were stopped now”.

FISCAL MEASURES: Reports via EurasiaGroup’s Rahman suggested that there is a rift forming with regards to how to split the financial burden of the war, whilst work on a SURE-style instrument, for the Russian war in Ukraine, has been put on hold, as EU Commission President von der Leyen was "spooked" by Germany's opposition to common borrowing, according to EurasiaGroup

CHEMICAL/NUCLEAR WEAPONS: There has been growing noise surrounding Russia’s potential use of chemical and nuclear weapons. This will be discussed by members. “The use of chemical weapons in Ukraine will change the nature of the conflict and its consequences will be dire”, NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg said on Thursday morning. Meanwhile, the Russian deputy ambassador to the UN told Sky News that Russia retains the right to use nuclear weapons if the country is "provoked" by NATO.

BELARUS: There have been reports that Belarus has been moving around military inside their borders. CNN’s Sciutto reported “Belarus could "soon" join the war in Ukraine, US/NATO officials say, and is already taking steps to do so... Belarusian opposition tells me combat units are ready as soon as next few days, with 1000s prepared to deploy”.

NO-FLY ZONE/MILITARY SUPPORT: The West has continuously spoken against imposing a “No-Fly Zone” over Ukraine as it could mean NATO is forced into a confrontation with Russia. The West will likely maintain this stance whilst pledging to supply Ukraine with more defensive weapons. NATO will also likely reinforce its Eastern Flank.

24 Mar 2022 - 08:16- EquitiesGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk