PRIMER – Fed Chair Powell to deliver testimony to House lawmakers on Tuesday at 15:00BST/10:00EDT

Fed Chair Powell will deliver his semi-annual testify before House and Senate committees this week (House on Tuesday; Senate on Wednesday) and justify keeping interest rates steady until at least September, despite President Trump’s calls to cut borrowing costs. The testimony follows the Fed’s fourth consecutive rate hold amid concerns over rising oil prices and global economic risks.

FOMC RECAP: Last week, the FOMC kept rates unchanged at 4.25-4.50%, as expected, with its 2025 median rate projection also left unchanged at 3.9%, signalling 50bps of cuts this year; the 2026 and 2027 dots rose to 3.6% and 3.4% (from 3.4% and 3.1%). Seven members now expect no cuts this year (up from four), two see 25bps of cuts (down from four), eight foresee 50bps (down from nine), and two expect 75bps (unchanged). GDP forecasts were lowered to 1.4% for 2025 (prev. 1.7%) and 1.6% for 2026 (prev. 1.8%), while unemployment forecasts rose, except for the long run. Headline and core PCE inflation forecasts increased, with 2025-end headline inflation at 3.0% (prev. 2.7%) and 2.4% for 2026 (prev. 2.2%). The Committee said uncertainty has "diminished further but remains elevated," removing prior warnings about stagflation risks, though higher inflation and lower growth keep those risks present.

POWELL RECAP: At his post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Powell largely repeated familiar remarks, saying a patient, wait-and-see approach remains appropriate. He emphasised that projections are uncertain and not a fixed plan, recommending focus on near-term forecasts. Powell said the time will come for more confidence but cannot specify when. Given the current labour market and falling inflation, holding rates was the right course, he said, and he expects to learn more over the summer and make better decisions after a "couple of months." Powell noted favourable inflation over the past three months but warned of upcoming tariff impacts and higher consumer costs, underscoring the need for patience. He said rates must stay high to bring inflation down fully and described policy as "modestly restrictive," similar to his May comments that policy is "modestly or moderately restrictive."

DOVISH TILT: Since the meeting, signs are emerging that other influential Fed policymakers are moving into the 'rate cut camp'; Governor Bowman (voter) supports an interest rate cut at July’s meeting if inflation remains muted; she views tariffs’ inflation impact as likely temporary and small, aligning with Governor Waller’s recent comments. Meanwhile, US President Trump continues to fire criticism at the Fed Chair; after the meeting, Trump said "Too Late" Powell is "the WORST," adding that he is a "real dummy, whoʼs costing America [billions]", and following that up this week, stating that "we should be at least two to three points lower", and that Powell should explain to lawmakers "among other things, why he is refusing to lower the Rate." Money markets are currently fully discounting two rate reductions this year, with 55bps of easing priced (implying two full 25bps cuts, along with a 20% probability of a third). That compares to around 50bps in wake of the Fed meeting last week. 

TIMING [for guidance only]:

• TLDR: Text release should be at 13:30BST on Tuesday and 15:00BST on Wednesday (to be repeat of Tuesday remarks).


• Powell is speaking to the House on Tuesday, so should be expecting a text release at 13:30BST - the time his speech is scheduled to start is 15:00BST. For reference, when it is the Senate first historical evidence suggests the text release would be at 15:00BST.

Fed Chair Powell testimonies past text release times.:

• February 2025: 15:00GMT (Senate)


• July 2024: 15:00BST (Senate)


• March 2024: 13:30GMT (House)


• June 2023: 13:30BST (House)


• March 2023: 15:00GMT (Senate)


• June 2022: 14:30BST (Senate, the time the hearing was set to start)


• February 2022:13:30GMT (House)

24 Jun 2025 - 12:30- ForexData- Source: Newsquawk