PREVIEW: FOMC Minutes due Tuesday 30th, December 2025 at 19:00GMT/14:00EST

Note: Newsquawk will run a shortened service to cover the FOMC Minutes on 30th December 2025 - where the desk will open from 18:45GMT/13:45EST - 19:30GMT/14:30EST. For the full Newsquawk Christmas schedule, please click here.

SUMMARY: The Minutes will be scrutinised to monitor how diverged the Fed members are on their views - the three dissenters and the widespread of dot plots already confirm there is clearly a wide range of views on the FOMC. The upcoming Minutes will not include recent NFP and CPI data, as it is an account of information available at the time of the FOMC Meeting on 10th December. The vote split was more dovish than expected, and Powell was more concerned about the labour market. The Minutes will expand on the reasons behind the 25bps rate cut (Powell cited shifting balance of risks), while it may also allude to the conditions some agreed upon in order to lower rates - Collins has since said the tweak to guidance was an important factor in her decision to cut rates, as it expresses a slow easing path ahead. Discussions around the neutral rate will also be eyed, Fed Chair Powell said that rates are now in a plausible estimate of neutral, but to the top end of that range. Meanwhile, Williams still refers to policy as mildly restrictive.

POLICY: The December meeting saw the Fed cut by 25bps, in line with expectations, but the decision was not unanimous, with the FOMC facing a wide range of views. The vote split itself was 9-3, perhaps more dovish than expected, given commentary from officials like Collins and Musalem before the blackout period, which indicated they would be voting for a hold. Goolsbee and Schmid voted to keep rates on hold, but Miran opted for a 50bps rate cut once again. Although the vote itself only saw two choose to keep rates unchanged, the dot plot shows that there were four other non-voting members who would have wanted to keep rates where they were. The Minutes will likely echo the sentiment that there was a wide range of views, but Powell did note there was “fairly broad” support behind the policy decisions.

GUIDANCE: Since the blackout period, Fed’s Collins noted that the tweak to guidance was an important element in her decision to agree to cut rates, as it signals a slower easing path ahead. The guidance was adjusted from “in considering additional adjustments” to “in considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments” - it will be interesting to see if the Minutes suggest this guidance helped others in favour of a rate cut.

MANDATE: Fed Chair Powell appeared more concerned about missing on the Fed’s employment mandate than inflation, noting most expect inflation to be a one-time price increase, but there is a risk that it is not. He also noted that all agreed the labour market has softened and that there are further risks, but the difference in views is how participants weigh those risks. Powell warned it is difficult to estimate job growth in real time, warning of a monthly 60k overshoot in NFP numbers – the November jobs report saw 64k jobs added in November.

DATA: One of the reasons Goolsbee voted to hold was because of a lack of clarity on the economy amid missing data, while Powell noted the Fed will be careful in assessing incoming data and will need to look at the data with a somewhat sceptical eye. The need for scepticism was proved with the November CPI report, which saw a notable drop to 2.6% from 3.0% in the core print, and to 2.7% from 3.0% for the headline, which was largely explained by sampling issues and the estimates of the BLS used for the missing October data.

24 Dec 2025 - 13:56- Fixed IncomeData- Source: Newsquawk