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[PRESS CONFERENCE] BoJ Governor Ueda says BoJ has confirmed the virtuous cycle of wages and prices; Accommodative financial conditions will be maintained for the time being

Important
SourceNewsquawk
SectionBoJ

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POLICY 

  • Accommodative financial conditions will be maintained for the time being.
  • Will consider options for easing broadly including ones used in the past if needed. 
  • Policy framework of QQE with YCC and NIRP fulfilled roles.
  • Will continue buying "broadly" the same amount of JGBs as before.
  • Will use short-term policy rate as main tool.
  • Important to keep easy environment in place considering distance to 2% target in terms of inflation expectations.
  • Will carry out "regular" monetary policy.
  • Interest rate levels will be determined by markets.
  • Not thinking of setting a name for new policy framework since its "regular" monetary operation.
  • Pace of further hikes depend on economy and price outlooks.
  • Will not use JGB buying operations and balance adjustments as proactive monetary policy tool.
  • Will always have Taylor Rule in mind when conducting monetary policy.
  • Have come to stage where BoJ can slowly proceed with possible rate hikes, "which I think is appropriate".
  • Spring wage talks were a big factor.
  • If price outlook overshoots or shows possibility of overshooting, that could lead to a change in policy.
  • Bigger upward price risks could result in rate hike.
  • Accommodative conditions will continue until inflation overs below 2%.
  • "Easy monetary environment" is defined as actual interest rate lower than neutral rate of interest.
  • Real neutral rate of interest is hard to be identified, even among central bank experts.
  • Available wage data are only partial and whether if the wage hike trend broadens is a point of consideration for further policy decisions.
  • Massive easing has fulfilled its role; legacy of past policy, including massive JGBs and ETF balance, remains.
  • Doesn't think new policy can be called "zero interest rate policy", not sure if the latest step can be called a normalisation.
  • When asked about hesitation about today's decision, said uncertainties over wages and consumption remain.
  • Does not have a preconceived notion of which would come first, reduction of bond-buying or rate hikes.

MARKET OPERATIONS

  • Not thinking about telling the definitive upper yield cap to market operations division.
  • Does not think BoJ will set an upper limit in bond yields in determining the appropriate level for conducting market operations.

JGB HOLDINGS

  • BoJ's large holdings of JGB an impact on easy conditions.
  • Stock effect of BoJ's JGB holdings on long-term rates cannot be ignored.

ETF

  • Cannot say definitively about timing of reducing ETF balance sheet.

FX

  • No comment on short-term currency moves.
  • Will consider monetary policy response if currencies cause a big impact on economy and prices.

INFLATION/ECONOMY

  • Judged sustainable, stable achievement of 2% inflation target has come into sight; hence decided to shift policy.
  • Still a distance from the 2% target when looking at inflation expectations. 
  • Possibility of achieving sustained and stable 2% target is not 100%, but it is rising.
  • Accommodative conditions will firmly underpin the economy and prices.
  • Private consumption is weak.
  • Not just the spring wage talks, but solid services prices, brighter consumption outlook, improving consumer confidence and upgraded capex led to a change in stance in Q1.
  • Downside risk include slower-than-expected consumption recovery.

RATES

  • Do not expect deposit rates and lending rates to spike following today's decision.
  • Will set short-term interest rates just like other central banks that use short-term rates as policy tool.
  • Mindful of risks of sudden spikes in interest rates.

SME WAGES

  • Conducted hearings with companies smaller than the ones BoJ usually survey in the Tankan.
  • Closely watching whether trend of large wage hikes could broaden among small firms.
  • Not necessarily confident enough that wages at SMEs will rise.
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