[PRESS CONFERENCE] BoJ Governor Ueda says BoJ has confirmed the virtuous cycle of wages and prices; Accommodative financial conditions will be maintained for the time being
Important
SourceNewsquawk
SectionBoJ
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POLICY
- Accommodative financial conditions will be maintained for the time being.
- Will consider options for easing broadly including ones used in the past if needed.
- Policy framework of QQE with YCC and NIRP fulfilled roles.
- Will continue buying "broadly" the same amount of JGBs as before.
- Will use short-term policy rate as main tool.
- Important to keep easy environment in place considering distance to 2% target in terms of inflation expectations.
- Will carry out "regular" monetary policy.
- Interest rate levels will be determined by markets.
- Not thinking of setting a name for new policy framework since its "regular" monetary operation.
- Pace of further hikes depend on economy and price outlooks.
- Will not use JGB buying operations and balance adjustments as proactive monetary policy tool.
- Will always have Taylor Rule in mind when conducting monetary policy.
- Have come to stage where BoJ can slowly proceed with possible rate hikes, "which I think is appropriate".
- Spring wage talks were a big factor.
- If price outlook overshoots or shows possibility of overshooting, that could lead to a change in policy.
- Bigger upward price risks could result in rate hike.
- Accommodative conditions will continue until inflation overs below 2%.
- "Easy monetary environment" is defined as actual interest rate lower than neutral rate of interest.
- Real neutral rate of interest is hard to be identified, even among central bank experts.
- Available wage data are only partial and whether if the wage hike trend broadens is a point of consideration for further policy decisions.
- Massive easing has fulfilled its role; legacy of past policy, including massive JGBs and ETF balance, remains.
- Doesn't think new policy can be called "zero interest rate policy", not sure if the latest step can be called a normalisation.
- When asked about hesitation about today's decision, said uncertainties over wages and consumption remain.
- Does not have a preconceived notion of which would come first, reduction of bond-buying or rate hikes.
MARKET OPERATIONS
- Not thinking about telling the definitive upper yield cap to market operations division.
- Does not think BoJ will set an upper limit in bond yields in determining the appropriate level for conducting market operations.
JGB HOLDINGS
- BoJ's large holdings of JGB an impact on easy conditions.
- Stock effect of BoJ's JGB holdings on long-term rates cannot be ignored.
ETF
- Cannot say definitively about timing of reducing ETF balance sheet.
FX
- No comment on short-term currency moves.
- Will consider monetary policy response if currencies cause a big impact on economy and prices.
INFLATION/ECONOMY
- Judged sustainable, stable achievement of 2% inflation target has come into sight; hence decided to shift policy.
- Still a distance from the 2% target when looking at inflation expectations.
- Possibility of achieving sustained and stable 2% target is not 100%, but it is rising.
- Accommodative conditions will firmly underpin the economy and prices.
- Private consumption is weak.
- Not just the spring wage talks, but solid services prices, brighter consumption outlook, improving consumer confidence and upgraded capex led to a change in stance in Q1.
- Downside risk include slower-than-expected consumption recovery.
RATES
- Do not expect deposit rates and lending rates to spike following today's decision.
- Will set short-term interest rates just like other central banks that use short-term rates as policy tool.
- Mindful of risks of sudden spikes in interest rates.
SME WAGES
- Conducted hearings with companies smaller than the ones BoJ usually survey in the Tankan.
- Closely watching whether trend of large wage hikes could broaden among small firms.
- Not necessarily confident enough that wages at SMEs will rise.