OPEC MOMR (November): Demand growth for 2024 revised down 107k BPD, forecast for 2025 is also slightly revised lower

DEMAND

• The world oil demand growth forecast for 2024 is revised down slightly to about 1.8mln BPD (Prev. 1.9mln BPD).


• This minor adjustment is mainly due to updated data for 1Q24, 2Q24 and 3Q24.


• The forecast for world oil demand growth in 2025 is also slightly revised down by 103k BPD to stand at 1.5mln BPD (prev. 1.6mln BPD)


• Oil demand in the non-OECD is forecast to be mostly driven by requirements from China, supported by the Middle East, India, Other Asia and Latin America. Growth is expected to be bolstered by strong air travel demand and healthy road mobility, including on-road diesel and trucking, as well as healthy industrial, construction and agricultural activities in non-OECD countries.

SUPPLY

• Non-DoC liquids supply (i.e., liquids supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is expected to expand by 1.2mln BPD in 2024, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment.


• According to secondary sources, total OPEC-12 crude oil production averaged 26.53mln BPD in August 2024,466k BPD higher M/M.


• Crude oil output increased mainly in Libya, Nigeria and Congo, while production in IR Iran, Iraq, and Kuwait decreased.

TANKER MARKET

• Dirty spot freight rates rose across the board due to a strong start to the month before weakening in the second half of October, amid ample tonnage availability. An active US export market and geopolitical uncertainties were key drivers supporting rates early in the month.

Analysis details (11:40)

• All-in-all, there is little in terms of useful commentary in the MOMR given the fluidity of fundamentals, with the bulk of the report likely collated before the US election last week.

12 Nov 2024 - 11:40- EnergyGeopolitical- Source: OPEC