OPEC MOMR (May): 2023 world oil demand growth is broadly unchanged from the last month’s assessment

via OPEC

DEMAND

• 2023 world oil demand growth is broadly unchanged from the last month’s assessment at 2.3mln BPD.


• Within the regions, slight downward adjustments in 1Q23 for the OECD were offset by upward revisions to the non-OECD.


• Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 also remains unchanged from the previous assessment.


• Minor upward adjustments were made due to the better-than-expected performance in China’s economy, while other regions are expected to see slight declines, due to economic challenges that are likely to weigh on  oil demand.

SUPPLY

• Preliminary data indicates that April’s global oil supply decreased by 0.5mln BPD M/M to average 101.3mln BPD, up by 2.4mln BPD Y/Y.


• OPEC-13 crude oil production in April decreased by 191k BPD M/M to average 28.60mln BPD, according to available secondary sources.


• Crude oil output increased mainly in Saudi Arabia, Angola and IR Iran, while production in Iraq and Nigeria declined.


• The share of OPEC crude oil in total global production remains unchanged to stand at 28.2% in April, compared with the previous month.

REFINING MARGINS

• In April, refinery margins dropped to their lowest level y-t-d following the mild gains registered in the previous month.


• Global refinery processing rates recovered in April, and gained 918k BPD, according to preliminary estimates. In the coming month, refinery intakes are expected to remain well supported as the peak turnaround season comes to an end.

BALANCE OF SUPPLY/DEMAND

Analysis details (13:55)

• All-in-all, there isn’t much in terms of context regarding the voluntary coordinated OPEC+ cuts announced in April.


• However, EIA’s STEO earlier this week upgrade its 2023 world oil demand growth forecast by 120k BPD.


• As a reminder, the next JMMC/OPEC+ meeting will take place at the start of June.

11 May 2023 - 13:55- EnergyGeopolitical- Source: OPEC