OPEC MOMR (Mar – Incorporates Iranian War): In March, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC (OPEC+) dropped by 7.70mln BPD M/M, to average about 35.06mln BPD, according to available secondary sources

SUPPLY

• In March, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC (OPEC+) dropped by 7.70mln BPD M/M, to average about 35.06mln BPD, according to available secondary sources.


• 
  OPEC+ March crude production breakdown is available at the bottom.
  

DEMAND

• The demand for DoC crude (i.e., crude from countries participating in the DoC) in 2026 remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 42.9mln BPD.


• Global oil demand growth for 2026 is forecast at 1.4mln BPD Y/Y, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment.


• The OECD is forecast to grow by 0.1mln BPD, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about  1.3mln  BPD.


• 
  In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3mln BPD Y/Y, also unchanged from last  month’s assessment. 


• The OECD is forecast to grow by 0.1mln BPD, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by around 1.2mln BPD.

REFINING MARGINS

• In March, refining margins surged across all major regions, given the sharp reduction in product output and rising middle distillate crack spreads, which reached multi-year highs.


• Trade flow constraints and refinery run cuts in the East of Suez contributed further pressure on product margins amid the heavy refinery maintenance season.

TANKERS

• In March, trade disruptions and moves to source alternative supplies pushed dirty tanker spot freight rates to record levels.


• On the West Africa-to-East route, VLCC spot freight rates rose 34%, M/M. Suezmax spot freight rates on the USGC-to-Europe route jumped 104%, M/M.


• Aframax rates were particularly strong West of Suez, with the Intra-Mediterranean route increasing 68%, while the Indonesia-to-East route experienced more limited gains of 8%, M/M.

PRICES

• In March, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value increased by USD 48.46/bbl, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average USD 116.36/bbl.


• The forward curves of the three main crude oil futures benchmarks – ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and GME Oman – steepened sharply in March, and the calendar spreads between the nearest futures contracts moved into deeper backwardation.


• Traders were pricing in significant short-term supply tightness amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Tight physical crude supply prompted refiners, particularly in the Asia- Pacific and Europe, to compete for available spot cargoes through aggressive bidding.


• Hedge funds and other money managers turned increasingly bullish on oil in March, sharply increasing their net long positions amid supply disruptions and rising oil prices.

ECONOMY

• Following sound global GDP growth in 2025, estimated at 3.3%, the global economy is expected to be able to generally absorb temporary events like trade-related challenges and the current Middle East geopolitical developments.


• While geopolitical developments in the Middle East have been to the fore in recent weeks, US tariff-related developments have been volatile since the beginning of the year. They may become a topic of interest again in the near-term as the US administration may again raise tariffs.

Analysis details (13:00)

• This is the first OPEC MOMR to incorporate the fallout from the Iranian war, essentially highlighting stable demand but lower production from some OPEC+ members.


• Unsurprisingly, given the fluidity of the Iranian war, there is very little in terms of assumptions or near-term expectations mentioned, particularly on any expected durations or magnitudes of the war.


• Interestingly, there are zero direct mentions of the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.


• Further, the release also mentions that the US tariff situation may be of interest again in the near term.


• In terms of last week's EIA STEO, it projected 2026 production at 104.3mln BPD (prev. 107mln BPD), and 2027 at 109.5mln BPD (prev. 109.6mln BDP).

13 Apr 2026 - 13:00- EnergyGeopolitical- Source: OPEC