OPEC MOMR (June): 2022 world oil demand growth broadly unchanged at 3.4mln BPD; Q2 2022 demand revised down but H2 2022 revised up

DEMAND

• 2022 world oil demand growth is broadly unchanged to stand at 3.4mln BPD (prev. revised down 300k to 3.4mln BPD in May), and projected to average 100.29mln BPD, exceeding 2019 demand by 90k BPD.


• Q2 22 demand is revised down, reflecting China lockdowns.


• H2 22 demand revised up on expectations of higher demand during the summer holiday and driving season.


• OECD oil demand growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.8mln BPD and 1.6mln BPD in the non-OECD.


• Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised up by 0.1mln BPD from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 29.2mln BPD, which is around 1.1mln BPD higher than in 2021.

SUPPLY

• Preliminary data indicates that global liquids production in May decreased by 0.22mln BPD to average 98.71mln BPD compared with the previous month.


• The forecast for non-OPEC supply growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.25mln BPD to 2.1mln BPD.


• Russia’s liquids production for 2022 is revised down by 0.25mln BPD.


• The US liquids supply growth forecast for 2022 remains marginally unchanged at 1.3mln BPD.


• The main drivers of liquids supply growth in 2022 are expected to be the US, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, Guyana and China, while declines are expected mainly in Russia, Indonesia and Thailand.


• OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids production growth of 0.1mln BPD is expected for 2022, maintaining the growth rate in 2021.


• In May, OPEC-13 crude oil production decreased by 239k BPD M/M to average 28.47mln BDP, according to available secondary sources.

Commentary

• World economic growth in 2022 remains broadly unchanged at 3.5% (vs growth of 5.8% in 2021).


• US GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 3.0% from 3.2% (vs growth of 5.7% in 2021).


• Euro-zone growth for 2022 is revised down to 3.0% from 3.1% (vs growth of 5.4% in 2021).


• Consumption remains robust, especially in the advanced economies, with an expected continued recovery particularly evident in the contact-intensive services sector, which includes travel and transportation activity, leisure and hospitality.


• Significant downside risks prevail, stemming from ongoing geopolitical tensions, the continued pandemic, rising inflation, aggravated supply chain issues, high sovereign debt levels in many regions, and expected monetary tightening by central banks in the US, the UK, Japan and the Euro-zone.

Analysis details (13:15)

• The EIA STEO last week raised global 2022 oil demand forecast to 99.63mln BPD vs the OPEC MOMR leaving 2022 global oil demand unchanged from the prior month's forecast to average 100.29mln BPD in 2022.

14 Jun 2022 - 13:15- EnergyData- Source: OPEC