OPEC MOMR (Jul): World oil demand expected to grow 2.4mln BPD in 2023 (prev. 2.3mln BPD in June) due to higher demand in China in Q2; 2024 world oil demand expected to grow 2.2mln BPD, reaching 104.25mln BPD

OPEC

• OPEC-13 crude oil production in June increased by 91k BPD M/M to average 28.19mln BPD, according to available secondary sources.


• Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised up by 0.1mln BPD from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 29.4mln BPD, 1mln BPD higher than 2022.


• Demand for OPEC crude in 2024 is expected to reach 30.2mln BPD, 0.8mln BPD higher than the 2023 level.

2023 World Oil Demand

• OECD Americas is revised up slightly to account for a better-than-expected performance in the US in 2Q23.


• OECD Europe is revised up slightly in 1Q23.


• In the non-OECD, demand was also revised upward to account for bullish oil demand seen in China in 2Q23 and a slight improvement in Latin America over the same period.

2024 World Oil Demand

• The OECD is anticipated to expand by 0.26mln BPD, with OECD Americas contributing the largest increase.


• The non-OECD is set to drive growth, increasing by almost 2.0mln BPD, with China, the Middle East and other Asia accounting for the bulk of this growth, with further support from India, Latin America, and Africa.

World Oil Supply 2023

• Non-OPEC liquids supply is expected to expand by 1.4mln BPD in 2023 (unchanged from June).


• The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2023 are expected to be the US, Brazil,  Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while the decline is expected mainly in Russia.


• There remain uncertainties related to US shale oil output potential and unplanned maintenance in 2023.


• OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 50k BPD in 2023 to an average of 5.44mln BPD

World Oil Supply 2024

• Non-OPEC liquids production is expected to grow by 1.4mln BPD.


• The main drivers for liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Canada, Guyana, Brazil, Norway and Kazakhstan, while the largest declines are expected in Mexico and Azerbaijan.


• OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 65k BPD to an average of 5.51mln BPD.

Crude and Refined Products Trade

US:

• Preliminary data show US crude imports continued to pick up seasonally in June to average 6.5mln BPD.


• US crude exports recovered to an average of 4.1mln BPD, a three-month high.

China:

• The latest data for China shows crude imports rebounding in May to average around 12.1mln BPD.


• China’s product imports increased for the fourth consecutive month, reaching a record high of just under 2.5mln BPD.

India:

• India’s crude imports in May declined for the third month in a row, averaging 4.7mln BPD.


• India’s product imports and exports recovered from losses in the previous month M/M.

Japan:

• Japan’s crude imports averaged 2.5mln BPD in May, a drop of 0.4mln BPD, or almost 15% M/M.


• Japan’s product imports fell for the second consecutive month.

Europe:

• Preliminary estimates show OECD Europe crude imports above March levels, amid increased flows to the Netherlands and France, although these were lower than in the same month last year.


• Product imports into the region are expected to move seasonally higher, supported by inflows to Turkey,  remaining close to year-ago levels in May and June.

Analysis details (12:30)

Note, the March, April, May & June MOMR left world oil demand forecasts unchanged for 2023 at 2.3mln BPD.

13 Jul 2023 - 12:30- EnergyImportant- Source: OPEC