OPEC MOMR (Feb): Demand forecasts unchanged from prior month; no interesting updates; "OPEC oil supply cuts stall as Iraq keeps pumping above quota." Bloomberg says

DEMAND

• For 2024, world oil demand forecast remains at 2.2mln BPD, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment.


• Oil demand growth in OECD Asia Pacific is revised down slightly for 1Q24, due to expected lower performance in the manufacturing and petrochemical sectors of Japan and South Korea. However, this is offset by upward adjustments for India and Other Asia, reflecting anticipated improvements during the same period.


• In 2025, global oil demand is expected to see a robust growth of 1.8mln BPD, unchanged from the last month's assessment.

SUPPLY

• For 2024, non-OPEC liquids production is expected to expand by 1.1mln BPD (prev. 1.2mln BPD M/M)


• In 2024, the main drivers for liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Canada, Brazil and Norway, while the largest declines are anticipated in Russia and Mexico. The


• OPEC-12 crude oil production in February averaged 26.57mln BPD (vs 26.34mln BPD in January)


• Crude oil output increased mainly in Libya and Nigeria, while production in IR Iran and Iraq decreased.

TANKER MARKET

• Dirty freight rates recovered further in February on all monitored routes, with the Middle East-to-East route leading gains.


• On average, VLCC spot freight rates rose 11%, M/M. compared with the same month of 2023, VLCC rates were 18% higher.

PRICES

• In February, crude oil futures prices consolidated their gains from the previous month, amid persistent volatility fuelled by uncertainties surrounding geopolitical developments.


• The optimism surrounding global economic growth in 2024, short covering from speculators, and indications of strengthening physical oil market fundamentals provided support to oil futures.

Analysis details (12:30)

• All-in-all, the report offers little in terms of fresh updates for the crude complex with most of the information backward-looking.


• EIA SETO is due later today at 16:00 GMT/12:00 EDT (due to the US clock change) whilst the IEA OMR is due on 14th March

12 Mar 2024 - 12:30- EnergyGeopolitical- Source: Newswires