Norges Bank maintains Key Policy Rate at 4.50% as expected; "the policy rate will likely be kept at that level for some time ahead"; will be a need to maintain a tight monetary policy stance for somewhat longer than previously projected

RATES

• “If the economy evolves as currently envisaged, the policy rate will continue to lie at 4.5 percent to the end of the year, before gradually being reduced,” says Governor Ida Wolden Bache.

STANCE

• Will be a need to maintain a tight monetary policy stance for somewhat longer than previously projected.

INFLATION

• Since the March Report, inflation has been a little lower than projected, while unemployment has increased as expected.
• Inflation is projected to decline further and approach 2% towards the end of 2027.

FORECASTS

RATE PATH

• 2024: Q2-2024 4.50% (prev. 4.51%), Q3-2024 4.51% (prev. 4.44%), Q4-2024 4.51% (prev. 4.29%)
• 2025: Q1-2025 4.42% (4.16%), Q2-2025 4.25% (prev. 4.02%) Q3-2025 4.06% (prev. 3.85%) Q4-2025 3.84% (prev. 3.66%)
• 2026: Q4-2026 3.11% (prev. 3.07%)

INFLATION (CPI-ATE)

• 2024: Q2-2024 3.99% (prev. 4.20%), Q3-2024 3.73% (prev. 3.89%), Q4-2024 3.47% (prev. 3.46%)
• 2025: Q4-2025 3.14%% (prev. 3.0%)
• 2026: Q4-2026 2.58% (prev. 2.55%)