Norges Bank maintains its Key Policy Rate at 4.50% as expected; reiterates guidance that "policy rate will likely need to be maintained at the current level for some time ahead"
Important
SourceNewsquawk
SectionOther Central Banks
RATE PATH
- 2024: Q1-2024 4.50% (prev. 4.52%), Q2-2024 4.51% (prev. 4.55%), Q3-2024 4.44% (prev. 4.44%), Q4-2024 4.29% (prev. 4.29%)
- 2025: Q1-2025 4.16% (4.14%), Q2-2025 4.02% (prev. 3.97%) Q3-2025 3.85% (prev. 3.80%) Q4-2025 3.66% (prev. 3.60%), end-2026 3.07% (prev. 2.97%)
INFLATION (CPI-ATE)
- 2024: Q1-2024 % 4.97(prev. 5.43%), Q2-2024 4.20% (prev. 4.81%), Q3-2024 3.89% (prev. 4.65%), Q4-2024 3.46% (prev. 4.31%)
- 2025: end-2025 3.0% (prev. 3.08%)
- 2026: end-2026 2.55% (prev. 2.25%)
RATE GUIDANCE
- If cost inflation remains elevated or the krone turns out to be weaker than projected, inflation may remain high for longer than currently projected. In that case, the Committee is prepared to raise the policy rate again.
- If there is a more pronounced slowdown in the Norwegian economy or inflation declines more rapidly, the policy rate may be lowered earlier than currently envisaged.
INFLATION
- Price inflation is slowing but is still markedly above target. Business costs have increased sharply over the past years, and high wage growth and the krone depreciation through 2023 will contribute to keeping inflation elevated ahead.
POLICY
- Monetary policy is having a tightening effect, and growth in the Norwegian economy is low.