Norges Bank Forecasts: first cut implied for Q1-2025 (prev. Q2-2025), only a marginal tweak to the Q4-2024 view

RATE PATH

• 
  2024: Q3-2024 4.50% (prev. 4.51%), Q4-2024 4.49% (prev. 4.51%)
  


• 
  2025: Q1-2025 4.40% (4.42%), Q2-2025 4.21% (prev. 4.25%), Q3-2025 3.99% (prev. 4.06%), Q4-2025 3.73% (prev. 3.84%)


• 
  2026: Q4-2026 3.02% (prev. 3.11%)

INFLATION (CPI-ATE)

• 
  2024: Q3-2024 3.28% (prev. 3.73%), Q4-2024 2.95% (prev. 3.47%)


• 
  2025: Q4-2025 2.94% (prev. 3.14%)


• 
  2026: Q4-2026 2.64% (prev. 2.58%)

Analysis details (09:06)

• In short, the forecasts imply some probability of the first cut occurring in Q1-2025 as opposed to Q2-2025 in the June MPR. As a reminder, heading into the announcement some analysts thought that the recent dovish economic conditions would merit as much as a 50% implied probability of a Q4-2024 cut, this has not been realised and likely sparked the modest hawkish reaction seen in the NOK.

19 Sep 2024 - 09:00- Important- Source: Norges