Newsquawk Preview: Tesla (TSLA) Q2 delivery numbers due July 2nd and expected between 9-9:10EDT/14-14:10BST; expectations are low as desks forecast disappointing figures

Analysis details (14:04)

SUMMARY: Ahead of the figures, expectations are low, and many desks are anticipating disappointing figures and another tough quarter when it comes to EV deliveries. Investors are hoping the bigger story remains its growing robotaxi tests. Heading into the numbers, monthly sales have been dropping across its biggest markets, incl. US, China and Europe, as it contends with its CEO’s political fallout, increased competition and an aging lineup of cars. Note, YTD Tesla shares are down 22%, and Tesla’s Co. compiled consensus expects about 386k deliveries in Q2.

Q2 2025 TESLA ESTIMATES:

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  Bloomberg deliveries: 390,595 (-11% Y/Y, in Q1 336,700).


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  FactSet deliveries: 387k (-13% Y/Y).


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  JPM deliveries: 360k (-19% Y/Y); said Tesla demand weakness likely continued in Q2 and sees “material risk” to FY delivery targets, with current H2 expectations requiring an unusually sharp rebound. Affordability issues and potential EV credit cuts add pressure, and as a result, and while we are very unlikely to get guidance on Wednesday, JPMorgan cut its 2025 EPS forecast to USD 1.75 (prev. USD 2.07) and 2026 to USD 2.40 (prev. USD 2.85), expecting the downtrend in estimates to continue.


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  Deutsche Bank: 355k; cites sharp Y/Y erosion in Europe and a stubborn sales slump in China as BYD pulls further ahead and Xiaomi racked up 200k preorders for its new EV in under five minutes.


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  “Troy Teslike” deliveries: 355k; desks note “Troy Teslike” is a closely watched analyst for Tesla numbers, and is often correct on such things, and has continually lowered his estimate over the quarter, having started at 412k and now revised it down to 355k.


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  Wells Fargo deliveries: 343k (-21% Y/Y); Cos. analyst said Tesla’s fundamentals are coming in worse than expected, with the firm's estimate significantly below St. consensus.


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  Bloomberg production: 443,321 (prev. 410,800 Y/Y).

BBG VEHICLE BREAKDOWN:

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  Number of vehicles sold: 390,595.


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  Model 3: 128,829.


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  Model Y: 241,698.


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  Model S: 4,625.


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  Model X: 13,126.


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  Cybertruck: 6,867.

02 Jul 2025 - 11:30- EquitiesResearch Sheet- Source: Newsquawk