Newsquawk European Market Wrap - 23rd December 2025

• European bourses were mixed; Novo Nordisk (+10%) surged after the FDA approved its weight-loss pill.


• US economy grew at 4.3% in Q3, topping expectations, a figure which spurred pressure in USTs and lifted the USD.


• Spot gold eyed USD 4.5k/oz to the upside; spot silver topped the USD 70/oz mark whilst 3M LME Copper printed a record high above USD 12k/t.


• European bourses were mixed; Novo Nordisk (+10%) surged after the FDA approved its weight-loss pill.


• US economy grew at 4.3% in Q3, topping expectations, a figure which spurred pressure in USTs and lifted USD.


• Spot gold eyed USD 4.5k/oz to the upside; spot silver topped the USD 70/oz mark whilst 3M LME Copper printed a record high above USD 12k/t.

EQUITIES

• 
  European equities were mixed, with little macro impetus and relatively lacklustre trade as markets edge closer to the holiday period.


• 
  European sectors were also mixed. Health Care led sectors due to gains by Novo Nordisk (+10%) with the Co. set for the biggest day gain since August 2023. Basic Resources also outperformed on elevated metal prices, with copper hitting a record high near USD 12k per tonne. On the downside, Media, Travel & Leisure, and Consumer Products & Services lagged.


• 
  US Equities have opened slightly lower/flat. On the macro front, Q3 advanced GDP data, which came out above expectations, saw some downward pressure on US equities. On a micro level, Bloomberg reported the US is probing NVIDIA and its largest Southeast Asian chip buyer, Megaspeed, over alleged smuggling, causing the tech giant to lose some of its shares in the premarket. However, the Co. has paired some of its losses seen in the pre-market.


• US movers include Kroger, which edges higher after its board approved an additional USD 2bln share repurchase authorisation. Huntington Ingalls Industries also gained after Donald Trump said he plans to meet defence executives next week to urge higher weapons and R&D spending. ServiceNow has seen shares dips modestly following news that the Co. is to acquire Armis for USD 7.5bln.

FX

• 
  DXY spent the majority of the session in the red, and grinded lower facilitated by strength in JPY (continuation of recent jawboning & haven flows), and strength in Antipodean also weighing on the Dollar. Into the afternoon, a strong GDP data set and in-line PCE Prices (Q3) spurred some upside in USD, with the index rising from 97.92 to the 98.00 handle in an immediate reaction, before then gradually moving towards 98.12 (vs overnight high of 98.23).


• 
  JPY was amongst the outperformers for most of the session, but then waned off best levels following the US GDP report. Early morning strength was seemingly a continuation of the price action seen following fresh jawboning from Finance Minister Katayama; as a reminder, she said that they have a “free hand” to take bold action in the FX market if needed. USD/JPY drifted lower from an overnight high of 157.07, to make a trough of 155.66 – but now looks to close the European session around 156.50.


• 
  Antipodeans also gained throughout overnight trade and into the European session, boosted by ongoing strength in metals prices (XAU eyed USD 4.5k/oz to the upside). Overnight, the Aussie showed little reaction to the RBA minutes, which indicated the Board debated whether a rate increase might be required at some point in 2026. Elsewhere, for the Kiwi specifically, NZD/USD breached 0.58 to the upside, which allowed the pair to extend beyond the level, which can explain some of the outperformance this morning.


• The GBP and EUR are steady vs the broadly weaker USD. Really not much driving things for either at the moment; the single currency really only has geopolitical updates to digest heading into the Christmas holidays.

FIXED

• A session of two halves for fixed income. Initially, JGBs led the complex higher after PM Takaichi said domestic debt remains high and pushed back on any “irresponsible bond issuance or tax cuts”.


• Remarks that lifted JGBs by over 40 ticks and supported peers across the board. Amidst this, OATs saw modest outperformance after Monday’s French Cabinet meeting, during which the use of Article 49.3 is seen as more likely vs the recent stance of PM Lecornu of it being ruled out.


• Furthermore, the French Assembly and Senate are set to conclude debating and then adopt text allowing the government to continue financing basic public services into early-2026. Narratives that spurred modest OAT performance vs Bunds, narrowing the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread to sub-70bps.


• Thereafter, fixed got hit by a very strong US GDP print for Q3. A figure that sent USTs to a 112-02+ trough, lower by nine ticks on the session. Similarly, Bunds were knocked and moved into the lower half of the day’s 127.00-49 band.


• 
  Gilts followed suit to the above throughout the day, but began to retreat before the US data. No clear or explicit driver behind this, with UK newsflow near non-existent aside from another government U-turn on inheritance policy re. farmers.


• China's Finance Ministry expects aggregate government bond issuance to remain "elevated" in 2026, according to Reuters citing sources.

COMMODITIES

• 
  Crude benchmarks traded muted throughout the European session and ended the session near the U/C mark. WTI and Brent dipped to a trough of USD 57.76/bbl and USD 61.82/bbl, respectively before gradually extending above USD 58/bbl and USD 62/bbl. This comes amid a lack of crude-specific newsflow but recent geopolitical escalations remain a key focus in the short-term that could keep supporting crude benchmarks. Benchmarks have slightly pulled back from their session highs as the US cash morning got underway.


• 
  Spot XAU followed on from Monday’s trend throughout the APAC session, peaking at USD 4498/oz, before slightly pulling back to USD 4470/oz as the European session got underway. The yellow metal had another attempt to extend the ATH and potentially break above USD 4500/oz but failed as hot US GDP data strengthened the dollar. Q3 GDP came in at 4.3% (exp. 3.3%), which helped US yields and the dollar lift from session lows. As Europe comes to a close, spot XAU is set to end near USD 4450/oz.


• 
  3M LME Copper steadily bid higher throughout the European morning, helped by the weaker dollar and the gains across the metals space. The red metal extended above USD 12k/t and eventually peaked at USD 12.17k/t before pulling back as the dollar strengthened following the GDP data. 3M LME Copper is still set to close beyond USD 12k/t before pulling back from the new record high.


• North Sea Forties crude oil loadings set at 150k BPD across six cargoes in February (prev. 158k BPD M/M).


• Iraqi Electricity Ministry said Iranian gas supply has been fully halted.


• China crude steel output in November 69.6mln tonnes, -10.9% Y/Y; global crude steel output in November 140.1mln tonnes, -4.6% Y/Y, via WorldSteel.


• Thai Central Bank Chief said there will be a set maximum trading volumes per major gold trader.


• Thailand's Finance Minister is looking to implement a tax on gold trading online.

EUROPEAN DATA

• Italian Flash Trd Bal Non-EU (Nov) 6.92B (Prev. 5.32B).


• Spanish GDP YY (Q3) 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 2.8%).


• Spanish GDP Final QQ (Q3) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.6%).


• German Import Prices YY (Nov) -1.9% vs. Exp. -2.2% (Prev. -1.4%).


• German Import Prices MM (Nov) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.2%).

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Spanish Government spokesperson said minimum pensions to increase by more than 7% next year.


• 
  Bank of Spain sees GDP growing 0.6-0.7% in Q4 Q/Q, FY25 GDP growth at 2.9% (prev. 2.6%), FY26 GDP growth 2.2% (prev. 1.8%), FY27 GDP growth 1.9% (prev. 1.7%). 2026 inflation at 2.1% (prev. 1.7%), after 2.7% seen in 2025. 2027 inflation seen at 1.9% (prev. 2.4%). Maintains budget deficit forecasts of 2.5% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026. Sees debt-to-GDP ratio at 100.6% at end-2025, 99.1% end-2026, 98.3% end-2027.


• Italian Senate has passed the 2026 budget bill.


• UK Government has raised the inheritance tax relief threshold to GBP 2.5mln (prev. GBP 1mln) for businesses and farmers.

TRADE/TARIFFS

• China initiates disputes regarding Indian measures on solar cells and modules and IT goods, according to the WTO.


• Japan's Chief Trade Negotiator Akazawa said JPY 1.8tln has been requested to support Nippon Export and Investment Insurance for US investments.


• US tariff on China semiconductors at 0% until June 2027, via USTR; at which point tariffs will increase, rate to be announced not fewer than 30 days before June 23rd, 2027.

CENTRAL BANKS

• ECB's Stournaras said the ECB must preserve optionality, via Econostream; being in a good place does not imply that rates are locked in. Expressed optimism on the EZ growth outlook, but highlighted risks.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• 
  Ukraine's President Zelensky said negotiators from Ukraine have "worked productively" with the US team in recent peace talks. Several draft documents have been prepared on security guarantees, recovery and peace framework.


• 
  Russia's Ryabkov said Russia and US held new round of talks on 'Irritants'; main issues remain unresolved, via IFX. New round of contacts may take place in early spring.


• Polish Armed Forces said they have scrambled jets following Russian strikes on Ukraine.

NOTABLE NORTH AMERICAN NEWS

• 
  US Treasury Secretary Bessent, on the November CPI, said he thinks it is a pretty accurate number; on Miran, said he will probably be back to CEA in February or March. He adds it would be better to make it a range centred around 2% but need to hit the target first. "Understands probably better than anybody what needs to be done", on the need to overhaul the Fed.


• Visa (V) US Holiday Spending: +4.2%.


• 
  US President Trump is reportedly mulling giving 775 acres of federal wildlife refuge to SpaceX, via NYT. SpaceX would give the Government some of its own property in exchange for the land.


• US President Trump says "The TARIFFS are responsible for the GREAT USA Economic Numbers JUST ANNOUNCED…AND THEY WILL ONLY GET BETTER! Also, NO INFLATION & GREAT NATIONAL SECURITY. Pray for the U.S. Supreme Court!!! President DJT".

NORTH AMERICAN DATA

• 
  US Industrial Production MM (Nov) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Oct -0.1%, Sept. 0.1%)


• 
  US Capacity Utilization SA (Nov) 76.0% vs. Exp. 75.9% (Oct. 75.9%, Sept. 76.0%)


• US GDP Sales Advance (Q3) 4.6% (Prev. 7.5%).


• US PCE Prices Advance (Q3) 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 2.1%).


• US GDP Advance (Q3) 4.3% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 3.8%).


• US Durables Ex-Defense MM (Oct) -1.5% (Prev. 0.1%).


• US Nondefe Cap Ex-Air (Oct) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.9%, Rev. 1.1%).


• US Durable Goods (Oct) -2.2% vs. Exp. -1.5% (Prev. 0.5%, Rev. 0.7%).


• US Durables Ex-Transport (Oct) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.6%, Rev. 0.7%).


• US Corporate Profits Prelim (Q3) 4.4% (Prev. 0.2%).


• US PCE Svs Exl Eng & Hsg (A) (Q3) 3.4% (Prev. 2.4%).


• US GDP Cons Spending Advance (Q3) 3.5% (Prev. 2.5%).


• US Core PCE Prices Advance (Q3) 2.9% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 2.6%).


• US GDP Deflator Advance (Q3) 3.7% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.1%).


• US Average Weekly Prelim Estimate ADP (4-week, w/e 6 Dec) +11.5k (Prev. +16.25k, Rev. +17.5k).


• Canadian GDP MM (Oct) -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. 0.2%).


• Canadian GDP MM (Oct) -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. 0.2%); Nov. estimate +0.1%.

23 Dec 2025 - 15:00- MetalsGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk