Newsquawk European Market Wrap - 11th November 2025

• European bourses have remained in the green since this morning's open; US trades mixed after the open.


• T-note futures rose on the weak US ADP report while the Dollar was sold, with DXY falling to intra-day lows.


• UK labour figures showed that employment contracted and the jobless rate ticked above expectations, while earnings ex-bonus met forecasts.

EQUITIES

• 
  European bourses have remained in the green since this morning's open. FTSE 100 (+0.9%) was boosted by the weaker GBP and increased bets of a December BoE rate cut, after a weak jobs report. Elsewhere, an underwhelming German ZEW sentiment survey has done little to pin down gains for the DAX 40 (+0.2%). The SMI was the outperformer today, amidst positive US-Switzerland trade developments, with Reuters reporting that the two countries could form a deal as soon as this week.


• 
  European sectors have remained largely in the green. At the top was Consumer Products and Services (+2.2%), spearheaded by gains in LVMH (+2.9%) after reports that the Co. plans to open several flagship stores across China in December. Also at the top were Food beverage & tobacco (+1.7%) and Health Care (+1.6%) with the latter being driven by gains in Roche, following an upgrade from Deutsche Bank, lifting sentiment across the sector. At the bottom of sectors was Optimised Personal Care, Drug & Groceries (-0.5%), though newsflow remained light to explain the downtick.


• Heading across the Atlantic, US equities have opened largely negative, contrary to their European counterpart. Minor upsides in the Dow Jones (0.1%) whilst the S&P 500 (-0.2%), Nasdaq (-0.4%) and Russell 2000 (-0.3%) are down. The tech sector in particular has been weighed down by Nvidia (-2.2%) after Softbank announced it sold its entire Nvidia shares.


• Key movers in the USA include gains in Rocket Lab Corporation (+10%) after Co. posted shallower loss per shr. than exp and rev. topping with strong guidance. On the downside is CoreWeave (-9.5%) after the Co. lowered FY rev. Guide & data-centre delays overshadowed solid Q3 metrics.

FX

• 
  USD - The DXY softened through the session, slipping to intra-day lows following a weaker-than-expected weekly ADP employment update. The data showed private employers shedding an average of 11,250 jobs per week over the four weeks ending October 25th, underscoring labour market softness through the latter half of the month. T-note futures rallied on the release, dragging the dollar lower and prompting spillover support in Bunds and Gilts. Earlier, broader sentiment had remained after the Senate’s passage of the government funding bill. The DXY traded within a 99.28–99.74 range, with clean air until the 99.000 mark to the downside.


• 
  EUR - The euro firmed through the session, supported by post-ADP dollar weakness, with EUR/USD in a 1.1548–1.1605 range. Earlier, price action was subdued amid a lack of fresh Eurozone catalysts, with limited reaction to Germany’s softer ZEW survey or ECB commentary. The ZEW noted that while government investment plans may offer short-term support, “structural problems continue to exist.” ECB’s Vujčić said inflation risks are now broadly balanced, while Elderson reiterated that the current rate level remains “appropriate,” stressing data dependence and a meeting-by-meeting approach. Technicians would be aware that the 50DMA (1.1663) sitting marginally below the 100DMA (1.1664).


• 
  GBP - Sterling reversed earlier losses to trade firmer amid the post-ADP USD, with GBP/USD in a 1.3117–1.3182 intraday range, recovering from a data-driven dip earlier in the session. The pair initially fell on weaker UK labour figures, as employment contracted and the jobless rate ticked above expectations, while earnings ex-bonus met forecasts. The release saw GBP/USD slide from 1.3153 to 1.3121, and EUR/GBP rise from 0.8781 to 0.8804. BoE rate pricing turned modestly more dovish, with a full 25bps cut now fully priced for February (vs. 98.8% pre-data). BoE’s Greene later described the jobs report as “not great,” citing survey reliability issues, and reiterated that policy “needs to be more restrictive than otherwise,” though she remains unconvinced that current settings are “meaningfully restrictive.”


• 
  JPY - The yen firmed into the European close, with USD/JPY in a 153.67–154.49 range, as the weaker post-ADP dollar theme persisted. Earlier in the session, the pair briefly reclaimed the 154.00 handle before paring gains amid softer risk sentiment and muted cross-asset moves. Domestic catalysts remained limited, with price action continuing to reflect broader USD dynamics.


• 
  Antipodeans - The AUD and NZD traded mixed into the European close having earlier drifted lower in unison through APAC trade, retracing part of Monday’s risk-driven gains. AUD/USD eased after meeting resistance at its 100DMA (0.6539), while NZD/USD remained rangebound, with resistance breached at the 0.5650 psychological mark. Crosswise, AUD/NZD slipped back below 1.1550 within a 1.1532–1.1578 range.

FIXED

• 
  Bonds were initially mixed today, with USTs and Bunds spending most of the day around the unchanged mark, whilst Gilts were boosted by a dire regional jobs report. Thereafter, global fixed income caught a bid following the release of the Weekly ADP Employment Change, which was also very poor.


• 
  UST futures were subdued overnight, and then gradually moved a little higher (on the UK jobs data), to then spend much of the European day around the unchanged mark. Thereafter, the release of Weekly ADP Employment Change figures, showed that private employers cut an average of 11,250 jobs a week. This sparked an immediate dovish reaction in USTs, taking paper to a fresh session peak of 112-31+. This only further adds to the woeful sentiment surrounding private labour market reports, highlighted by Revelio Labs, Chicago Fed and the latest monthly ADP report. Note: Treasury cash trade is shut, on account of the Veterans’ Day holiday.


• 
  Bund price action has ultimately followed the above; initially pressured, traded flat for most the day, and then caught a bid on the US data. Looking to close the European day at the upper end of a 128.97 to 129.25 range. For Europe specifically, a couple of ECB speakers and the release of the German/EZ ZEW had little impact on the complex; on the data, German Economic & Current Sentiment dipped from the prior and more than consensus. The accompanying commentary highlighted that “although the investment programme is likely to provide economic stimulus, the structural problems continue to exist”.


• 
  Gilts gapped higher at the open, and was the clear outperformer today in the aftermath of a poor UK jobs report. In brief, Employment contracted, the jobless rate ticked higher than expectations, while earnings ex-bonus matched forecasts. Gilts spent most of the session at the upper end of a 93.53 to 93.69 range, and then took a leg higher to a fresh peak of 93.95 on the weekly US ADP report.


• 
  Netherlands sells EUR 2.41bln vs exp. 2-2.5bln 2.50% 2035 DSL: avg. yield 2.810% (prev. 2.749%).

COMMODITIES

• 
  Crude benchmarks have managed to hold onto gains following reports that the Ukrainian military hit Russia’s Saratov oil refinery. WTI and Brent dipped to a trough of USD 59.66/bbl and USD 63.60/bbl respectively before surging c. USD 0.60/bbl higher to a peak of USD 60.49/bbl and USD 64.43/bbl following the Ukrainian strike on the Russian refinery. As the European session continued, benchmarks continued to grind higher, aided by the weaker dollar. As the European session comes to a close, WTI and Brent remain near session highs at USD 60.78/bbl and USD 64.75/bbl respectively.


• 
  Spot XAU bid higher in the early part of APAC trade to a peak of USD 4149/oz before oscillating in a tight USD 4124-4147/oz band for the entirety of the European session. Following a weak ADP report, XAU slightly ticked USD 6/oz higher to the peaks of the range before falling back down.


• 
  3M LME Copper traded rangebound for the majority of the European session amid a lack of catalysts. The red metal oscillated in a USD 10.8k-10.86k/t range for the majority of the session, with a brief extension to a peak of USD 10.87k/t before falling back lower to end the session at USD 10.85k/t.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN NEWS

• 
  Germany's VCI : In Q3, Revenue -2.3% Y/Y, production including pharmaceuticals -1.5 Y/Y, confirms FY25 outlook. Sees no improvement in the short term. Chemical industry continues tot suffer from weak industrial economy, global overcapacity, and high operating costs. Business situation is likely to worsen in the upcoming months.


• 
  UK Grocery Inflation +4.7%, Sales +3.2% in the 4 weeks to November 2, via Worldpanel

EUROPEAN DATA

• 
  UK Employment Change (Sep) -22k vs. exp. 0k (Prev. 91k)


• 
  UK HMRC Payrolls Change (Oct) -32k (Prev. -10k, Revised -32k)


• 
  UK ILO Unemployment Rate (Sep) 5.0% vs. Exp. 4.9% (Prev. 4.8%)


• 
  UK Claimant Count Unem Chng (Oct) 29.0k (Prev. 25.8k, Rev. 0.4k)


• 
  UK Avg Earnings (Ex-Bonus) (Sep) 4.6% vs. Exp. 4.6% (Prev. 4.7%)


• 
  UK Avg Wk Earnings 3M YY (Sep) 4.8% vs. Exp. 5.0% (Prev. 5.0%)


• 
  UK Private Sector 3 Month Average Growth YY (Sep) 4.2% (Prev. 4.4%)


• 
  German ZEW Current Conditions (Nov) -78.7 vs. Exp. -78.0 (Prev. -80.0); says, although the investment programme is likely to provide economic stimulus, the structural problems continue to exist.


• 
  German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov) 38.5 vs. Exp. 41.0 (Prev. 39.3).


• 
  EU ZEW Survey Expectations (Nov) 25.0 (Prev. 22.7).

TRADE/TARIFFS

• 
  Switzerland are close to sealing a 15% tariff deal with the US and could be completed as early as Thursday or Friday, via Reuters citing sources.

CENTRAL BANKS

• 
  ECB's Elderson says "current [rate] level is appropriate, but we will continue to be data-dependent and will decide one meeting at a time". "Our monetary policy is in a good place. It’s true that the economic environment remains uncertain, so we cannot commit to a pre-determined interest rate path." Elderson cites risks of higher inflation from supply fragmentation and defence spending. "Among the risks of lower inflation I would include the appreciation of the euro, which could reduce demand for euro area exports; and a re-routing to the euro area of products previously shipped to the United States." "We do, of course, monitor the euro’s exchange rate against other currencies because it could affect inflation." "Europe’s banks are strong and healthy, with sound capital and liquidity levels." Elderson says policy should not undermine banking mergers. Elderson argues mergers must be judged on technical and prudential criteria.


• 
  ECB's Vujcic says the risks are balanced around inflation and that recent growth and inflation are higher than forecast. Economically in a good place. Frontloading of tariffs is still unwinding. Consumers are still very cautious in Europe. Market valuations are stretched. A bit concerned that retail participation in stock markets are growing faster than hedge funds. ECB Vujcic says he doesn't see any imminent threat of a buyers strike for French debt.


• 
  BoE's Greene says risk management around inflation needs to influence policy views. Policy needs to be more restrictive than otherwise. Not convinced that policy is meaningfully restrictive. Latest unemployment report is not great. Problems with the labour force survey make it hard to know what is happening. Household inflation expectations are at the very top of expectations. Worried about inflation persistence. The weaker wage data is good news. Wage settlements data for next year from surveys is higher than we would like to see. Latest data suggests that the disinflationary process is on track.Wages are still "way too high" given weak growth. BoE's Greene says the market pricing of 3.25-3.50% for the neutral rate is reasonable.


• 
  Riksbank Minutes: Deputy Governor Jansson said "I think it can be said that we at the Riksbank are now also “in a good place” and I see conditions for this favourable situation to prevail for some time to come". First Deputy Governor Bunge says "I feel secure with both the decision to leave the policy rate unchanged and the assessment that it is expected to remain at the current level for some time to come, in line with the forecast in September." Deputy Governor Seim says "We will return in December with a full round of forecasts, and are always prepared to adjust our monetary policy if the outlook for economic activity and inflation changes"


• 
  BCB Minutes: to keep rates unchanged for a prolonged period of time as the scenario has unfolded as expected..

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

• Ukraine's military says it struck Russia's Saratov oil refinery.


• 
  Romanian Defence Military says possible drone fragments found in National territory after Russian overnight attack on Ukraine.


• 
  Russia's Kremlin says they've received no clarification from the US, regarding their nuclear testing.

MIDDLE EAST

• 
  Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Khatibzadeh says Tehran wants to reach "a peaceful nuclear agreement"Adds that they do not seek nuclear bomb. Iran is very much proud of its home-grown nuclear programme


• US is reportedly planning to build a large military base in Israel’s Gaza border region, according to Israeli press citing Israeli sources; the facility would be used by international forces operating in Gaza to help maintain the ceasefire. Facility could accommodate several thousand soldiers.They estimated the project’s budget at roughly USD 500mln.

NOTABLE NORTH AMERICAN NEWS

• 
  Apple (AAPL) is reportedly looking at adding a second camera to next iPhone Air to increase sales, via The Information.


• 
  Alphabet Google (GOOGL) to invest mid-single digit EUR bln amount in infrastructure in German according to Reuters sources.


• Meta (META) Chief AI scientist Yann LeCun plans to leave to start his own start-up, according to FT.

NORTH AMERICAN DATA

• 
  US NFIB Business Optimism Idx (Oct) 98.2 (Prev. 98.8)


• 
  Weekly ADP Employment Change (Four weeks, ending 25th Oct 2025): Private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs a week, suggesting that the labor market struggled to produce jobs consistently during the second half of the month. These numbers are preliminary and could change as new data is added.


• 
  US Redbook YY w/e 5.9% (Prev. 5.7%)

NOTABLE APAC NEWS

• 
  Softbank (9984 JT) 6-month (JPY) Net Profit 2.92tln, +190.9% Y/Y, Pre-tax Profit 3.69tln (prev. 1.46tln Y/Y), Net Income 2.50tln (exp. 418.23bln); to conduct a 4-for-1 stock split effective, January 1. Softbank (9884 JT) says it sold its NVIDIA (NVDA) stake for USD 5.83bln in October. Softbank CFO says they cannot tell if we are in an AI bubble or not


• 
  China October vehicle sales rose by 8.8% Y/Y (prev. 14.9% increase in September), according to the industry association.


• 
  China State Planner Official says private investment has slowed down this year. Adds that there's challenges in private investment. Energy official says it will increase policy supply for attracting private investment in energy. There's plan to support Private Investment to flow to high value service sectors. Aims to encourage private firms to enter the tech sector. Some of the new policy-based financial tool allowed to support private investment in key areas.


• 
  China Energy Official says it will increase policy supply for attracting private investment in the energy sector.


• 
  PBoC issues its Q3 monetary policy implementation report: To implement appropriately loose monetary policy and strengthen transmission of policy.To keep liquidity ample. To maintain FX flexibility and prevent overshooting risks. Will maintain reasonable relative relationships among various types of interest rates.


• 
  BoK Minutes: One board member says close attention should be paid to developments in the housing market; FX stability should be greater emphasised.


• 
  Japanese government reportedly considering raising departure tax, according to Mainichi press.

11 Nov 2025 - 15:00- ForexEU Research- Source: Newsquawk