Newsquawk EU Mid Session: Bonds back on an even keel, but Buck reeling and stocks spellbound - 18th September 2020

To download the report, please click here If you would like to subscribe to receive the research sheets directly in your inbox, you can now do so under the Research Suite section of the portal. To subscribe simply check the box next to "Email these reports" under the desired category.

EQUITIES

Stocks in Europe see a mixed session thus far (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1%), whilst US equity futures also see no conviction amid a somewhat of a similar lead from APAC, with fundamental news-flow light on quadruple witching day (full schedule available on the headline feed). The regional bourses see a mixed performance, with Switzerland’s SMI (+0.5%) outperforming as the Healthcare sector is propped up by Pharma-giants Roche (+2.1%) and Novartis (+1.8%), with the former announcing its phase III EMPACTA study met primary endpoints in regards to COVID-associated pneumonia, whilst also rolling out a new antibody test for countries accepting the CE mark. On the other side of the spectrum resides Spain’s IBEX (-1.5%), weighed on by the banking sector in the aftermath of the formal merger agreement between Caixabank (-1.5%) and Bankia (-4.3%); with Caixabank’s CEO stating it is out of question that the merger with Bankia will allow for potentially higher dividend. Meanwhile, Banks more broadly saw fleeting upside on reports that EU regulators have moved closer to lifting the ban on dividends in 2021, nonetheless the sector remains in the red. Overall, European sectors trade mixed with no risk profile to be derived. In terms of individual movers, Covestro (+6.9%) holds onto a bulk of its opening gains amid speculation that Apollo is said to be mulling a USD 10bln takeover bid for the group, albeit the Co. said it is not in any discussions. Sticking with M&A, LSE (+0.7%) has accepted Euronext’s (+4.8%) bid for Borsa Italiana, despite it being the lowest offer, but the deal did offer a sweetener as Euronext teamed up with Italy's sovereign wealth fund CDP and Intesa Sanpaolo (-0.1%) on its bid, with Rome keen to keep a tight grip on Borsa Italiana. Finally, Ryanair (-5.2%) is pressured after cutting its October capacity by a further 20% on top of the already announced 20% in mid-August with similar capacity cuts potentially in the pipeline for winter – also weighing on the likes of easyJet (-8.3%), IAG (-12.1%), Lufthansa (-4.7%) and Air France-KLM (-3.9%) in sympathy, with the airline sector already bearing the brunt of the European COVID-19 resurgence.

FX

NZD/AUD - The rationale or catalyst is far from clear, but disappointment in wake of NZ Q2 GDP has been relatively short-lived for the Kiwi, and remarks from Finance Minister Robertson overnight noting that the economy is rebounding from contraction may have helped along with his assurance that the RBNZ is committed to maintaining the OCR at 0.25% until Q1 next year when it will reassess the situation. Confirmation of the latter could come from next week’s policy meeting in addition to any response to the latest review of pandemic containment measures in Auckland and the rest of the country. Nzd/Usd has extended its recovery to just shy of 0.6800 vs almost 0.6600 last Wednesday, while Aud/Nzd has retreated through 1.0800 as the Aussie stalls above 0.7300 against its US counterpart following somewhat contrasting comments from Treasurer Frydenberg downplaying Thursday’s stellar jobs data by describing the labour market as still very challenging. Note also, Aud/Usd may be feeling the gravitational pull of 2.4 bn option expiry interest at the 0.7300 strike.

JPY/DXY - Not the biggest index component, but the Yen continues to exert considerable influence on the broad Dollar and DXY as it probes a Fib retracement level ahead and 104.50 following this month’s respective Fed and BoJ policy meetings, even though Japan’s Finance Minister contends that monetary easing has helped Usd/Jpy to stabilise within a 105.00-110.00 range. However, the Buck is unwinding more of its fleeting FOMC gains vs G10s in general and July 31’s 104.20 trough looms as the DXY hovers below 93.000 and not far from last week’s 92.695 base between 92.772-973 parameters.

GBP/EUR - Modest m/m beats on the UK retail sales front may be propping up the Pound, but is appears that Cable’s latest look at 1.3000 and Eur/Gbp’s pull-back from yesterday’s highs are due to renewed hopes of a Brexit trade deal given European Commission President von der Leyen’s purported confidence that an accord can yet be forged. Indeed, the short end of the UK yield curve is still tipped in favour of sub-zero rates after guidance from the BoE, while the Euro is also on a firmer footing against the Greenback, albeit tethered to 1.1850 with decent option expiries capping the upside at 1.1900 and 1.1950, while the 100 HMA is in close proximity at 1.1844.

CAD/CHF - The Loonie has pared more lost ground vs its US rival to straddle 1.3150 before Canadian retail sales, while the Franc is idling just above 0.9100 and looking further forward to September’s quarterly SNB policy review for any tweaks to the language of currency’s valuation.

EM - The Rand has extended post-SARB upside towards 16.1000 vs the Dollar with some extra impetus from the SA Government pledging Zar 10.5 bn extra funds to state carrier SAA, but the Rouble is treading cautiously into the CBR amidst expectations for no change in rates and the Lira has slipped to another all time low. Elsewhere, the NBH has launched its first Eur/Huf swap funding facility.

FIXED INCOME

It’s been one of those typical slow grinds after a bull retracement, but relatively pronounced and perhaps telling given the lack of movement in stocks and overall risk sentiment amidst quad-witching and pre-weekend positioning. Bunds are back above 174.00 and are re-testing -50 bp cash yield levels at 174.34, while Gilts have clawed back all and a bit more of their losses to trade just over parity at 136.69 vs Thursday’s 136.61 close and the 10 year T-note is nearer the top of its 139-11+ to 139-17 overnight range. Ahead, no early US data, but Canadian retail sales fill the void before prelim Michigan sentiment and Fed’s Bullard picks up the baton from the FOMC at the same time when ECB’s Schnabel is also due to speak.

COMMODITIES

WTI and Brent front month futures have trimmed overnight gains to the point futures trade somewhat flat during early European hours, with little by way of fresh catalysts to induce the pullback. Prices yesterday saw support from the Saudi Energy Minister’s commentary, who noted that OPEC does not have to wait until December to react and will be pro-active, whilst warning oil speculators not to bet against the oil producers. Elsewhere, Tropical Depression 22 resides in the western Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to evolve to a Tropical Storm later today; although, current projections show the Depression to become a short-lived hurricane but will steer clear of major oil and gas infrastructures. WTI Nov retains a USD 41/bbl handle but resides closer to session in proximity to the psychological levels, whilst its Brent counterpart trades sub-43.50/bbl having printed a current range of USD 43.12-80/bbl. Elsewhere, precious metals eke mild gains amid the softer Buck, with spot gold meandering just north of the USD 1950/oz mark and spot silver holding onto the USD 27/oz handle. Meanwhile, LME copper hit an over-2yr peak due to the softer Dollar and optimism surrounding Chinese demand, whilst Dalian iron ore snapped a three-session loss streak as industrial data showed that the pace of portside inventory builds slowed.

18 Sep 2020 - 11:29- Research Sheet- Source: Newsquawk