Newsquawk Daily US Equity Opening News: M & KR down after earnings; MRVL earnings disappoint; TSM adjusts CoWoS capacity target

TODAY'S AGENDA:

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  DAY AHEAD: Wholesale inventory and sales data are out as well. The Atlanta Fed is due to update its GDPnow model after today's data; on March 3rd, it was tracking growth of -2.8% in Q1. Elsewhere, geopolitics will be in focus as the Europeans will hold a special summit on Ukraine and EU defence. On the speaker's slate, Fed's Waller (voter) and Fed's Bostic (2027 voter) will speak on the economic outlook. ECB President Lagarde will give post-policy announcement remarks. In supply, the US Treasury will announce auction sizes for next week's 3s, 10s, 30s supply (no changes are foreseen). In corporate earnings, reports are due today from HPE, AVGO, COST, and GAP.


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  BROKER MOVES: FCX upgraded at Deutsche Bank; MRVL downgraded at Summit Insights. For the full list, please click here.
  


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  US MAJOR MORNING MOVERS RECAP: M, TSM, GOOG, Big Tech, NVDA, MRVL, ZS, ALGM/ON, BABA, WMT. To see the US pre-market movers, please click here.
  

EQUITY NEWS:

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  US-Canada - In retaliation for President Trump's tariffs, the Canadian province of Alberta has halted US alcohol purchases and is adjusting its procurement policies. Additionally, Alberta is shifting focus towards expanding oil and gas exports to alternative markets. Elsewhere, Canada is broadening its foreign investment oversight, introducing a provision that enables the country to block purchases and takeovers it deems harmful to national "economic security." This move comes amid ongoing tensions over tariffs imposed by President Trump.


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  US-Europe - US criticism of Europe's ESG regulations is intensifying, with the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham EU) arguing that recent revisions don't protect US interests, Bloomberg reports. US lawmakers view the rules as "hostile," and Commerce Secretary Lutnick has suggested considering "trade tools" in retaliation.

TECH

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  Big Tech - President Trump is set to meet with CEOs from HP (HPE), Qualcomm (QCOM), Intel (INTC), and IBM (IBM) next Monday, Bloomberg reports. The discussions will likely focus on potential import tariffs and stricter export rules, which could significantly impact the tech industry.


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  Nvidia (NVDA) - The black market price of Nvidia’s RTX 5090 gaming chip in China has risen by 150%, driven by DeepSeek’s popularity, The Information reports. Cos. are seeking cost-effective alternatives to expensive AI chips, fuelling demand. Separately, at a conference, execs said that despite strong Q4 Blackwell revenue, ongoing supply chain and product variant challenges (e.g. GB200), may influence future rollouts. Execs also said that aggressive R&D investments across multiple architectures continue to drive innovation and underpin its forecast for mid-30s-percentage Y/Y revenue growth, despite competitive pressures. Meanwhile, Microsoft (MSFT) has moved away from some of its agreements with Nvidia-backed cloud computing provider CoreWeave over delivery issues and missed deadlines, the FT reported citing unnamed sources.


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  TSMC (TSM) - Slightly adjusted its CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) capacity target for 2025 downward, DigiTimes reports. However, Co. plans to increase capacity from 2026 to 2029 with new additions at the Southern Taiwan Science Park. The adjustment follows growing demand, particularly from major clients like Nvidia (NVDA).


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  Intel (INTC) - Citi analyst said Intel should exit the wafer foundry business, suggesting that its future in this sector is uncertain. It comes as former Intel board members also express concerns about the Cos. involvement in the foundry market, especially amidst growing competition from firms like TSMC, DigiTimes reports.


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  Apple (AAPL) - Goldman Sachs analysts maintained a Buy rating on Apple, with a PT of USD 294, citing the company's new Mac and iPad products as key drivers for its Q2 revenue growth. Despite the lower-than-expected pricing for the MacBook Air, the products should help Apple achieve its growth outlook of low-to-mid-single digits.


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  SiTime (SITM) - Stock surged by 20% on Wednesday after components from the Co. were discovered in the new iPhone 16e. A teardown revealed SiTime's timer chips in the device, boosting the chipmaker's profile, as it had reported around USD 200mln in revenue last year, Bloomberg said.


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  OpenAI - A Chinese team has launched 'Manus', an AI agent claiming to outperform OpenAI models in the GAIA benchmark test. Manus works autonomously, executes tasks like resume screening and financial analysis, and continues working offline. It plans to release key models as open-source, following rising interest in Chinese AI.


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  CrowdStrike (CRWD) - CEO told CNBC he was confident in accelerating net new ARR, highlighting the positive impact of time spent with customers and the success of flex licensing. Despite facing challenges in H1, CEO is optimistic about H2 and ahead, citing a worsening threat environment.


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  Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM), ON Semiconductor (ON) - ON Semiconductor disclosed a USD 6.9bln bid to acquire Allegro Microsystems, offering USD 35.10/shr, slightly higher than its previous September proposal of USD 34.50/shr. Allegro responded, calling the bid "inadequate" after reviewing it.


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  Marvell Technology (MRVL) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS of 0.60 (exp. 0.59), Revenue 1.82bln (exp. 1.80bln). Guidance: Q1 adj. EPS 0.56-0.66 (exp. 0.61), Revenue ~ 1.875bln +/- 5% (exp. 1.87bln). Expects to 'significantly exceed' its FY26 AI revenue target of USD 2.5bln. At Summit Insights, MRVL shares were downgraded to a 'Hold' from 'Buy', citing increased competition in the custom AI ASIC design market could result in further gross margin pressure. Adding, expectations are too high and the company.


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  MongoDB (MDB) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.28 (exp. 0.67), Revenue 548.4mln (exp. 519.8mln); announced 200mln share buyback. Completed redemption of 2026 Convertible Notes, eliminating debt. Commentary: CEO highlighted strong Atlas growth and expects stable consumption in FY26. Guidance: Q1 adj. EPS 0.63-0.67 (exp. 0.63), Revenue 524-529mln (exp. 526.1mln). FY25 EPS 2.44-2.62 (exp. 3.39), FY26 revenue 2.24-2.28bln (exp. 2.32bln).


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  Zscaler (ZS) Q2 2025 (USD): EPS 0.78 (exp. 0.69), Revenue 647.9mln (exp. 635.4mln), driven by strong demand for Zero Trust and AI. Guidance: Q3 EPS 0.75-0.76 (exp. 0.74), Revenue 665-667mln (exp. 667.3mln). Raised FY25 EPS guidance to 3.04-3.09 (exp. 2.99), Revenue 2.64-2.65bln (exp. 2.64bln), lifted calculated billings to 3.15-3.17bln.


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  Logitech (LOGI) - Backed FY25 revenue guidance of USD 4.54-4.57bln (exp. 4.58bln). CEO highlights growth prospects, market leadership, and AI as a key driver. Sees FY26 revenue between USD 4.53-4.71bln (exp. 4.78bln). Has updated its long-term model, and is now targeting +7-10% sales growth, 40%+ adj. gross margin growth, and +15-18% operating margin. Plans USD 2bln in share buybacks over three years, with a USD 600mln increase to current programme.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

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  Macy's (M) Q4 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.80 (exp. 1.54), Revenue 7.77bln (exp. 7.82bln), Owned basis comp. sales -1.1% (exp. -0.09%); intends to resume share buybacks. FY26 guidance: Net sales 21-21.4bln (exp. 21.66bln); Adj. EPS 2.05-2.25 (exp. 2.31), Comp. sales flat to +2%. Q1 guidance: Revenue 4.4-4.5bln (exp. 4.73bln); EPS 0.12-0.15 (exp. 0.33).


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  JD.Com (JD / 9618 HK) Q4 (CNY) EPS 7.42 (prev. 5.30 Y/Y), Revenue 347bln (exp. 332.4bln), EBITDA 12.5bln (exp. 11.2bln)


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  Stellantis (STLA) - Recently stated it shared US President Trump's goal of building more cars in the US and thanked him for granting a one-month exemption to the Canada and Mexico tariffs.


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  Agriculture - President Trump is considering exempting specific agricultural products from tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The move, announced on Wednesday, is part of the administration's effort to alleviate the impact of the new import taxes on certain sectors.


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  Alibaba (BABA) - Alibaba Cloud has launched QwQ-32B, a 32bln-parameter AI model that rivals larger models in reasoning, coding, and instruction-following. Built on Qwen2.5-32B and enhanced by reinforcement learning, it is open-source and deployable on consumer hardware.


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  General Motors (GM) - UAW said on Wednesday that workers at a battery manufacturing JV between General Motors and South Korea's LG Energy Solution have overwhelmingly approved a first contract with the Co.


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  Baidu (BIDU) - Raised USD 1.4bln in its debt sale, benefiting from strong investor interest in China's AI-linked stocks, BBG reports. The offering, ahead of a USD 600mln debt due in April, saw its coupons priced lower than competitors, reflecting growing market confidence in the company's AI ambitions.


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  Tesla (TSLA) - Waller County (near Houston, Texas) has approved a tax abatement deal for Tesla to build a third megapack factory, BBG reports. The facility will be located in the Empire West industrial park, supporting Tesla's expansion into the energy sector. Tesla's Japan unit is to cease production of Japan-bound Model S and X as of March 31st; will limit sales of these models to inventory and used cars


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  Victoria's Secret (VSCO) - Expects gradual improvement in 2025 despite weak consumer confidence. Q4 2024 (USD): EPS 2.60 (exp. 2.30), Revenue 2.11bln (exp. 2.08bln), Q4 comps +5%. Notes macro uncertainty, unseasonal weather impact, expect gradual improvement through 2025. Guidance: Q1 revenue 1.30-1.33bln (exp. 1.4bln), FY25 revenue 6.2-6.3bln (exp. 6.21bln).


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  Burlington Stores (BURL) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 4.13 (exp. 3.77), Revenue 3.27bln (exp. 3.24bln). Guidance: FY25 adj. EPS 8.70-9.30 (exp. 9.43); Q1 adj. EPS 1.30-1.45 (exp. 1.69).


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  Zalando (ZLNDY) - Expects higher profits in FY25 (excludes the acquisition of About You, which is expected to close in the summer), and plans to expand into Portugal, Greece, and Bulgaria; Q4 sales topped expectations, and it guided FY25 GMV above expectations.

CONSUMER STAPLES

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  Kroger Co (KR) Q4 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.14 (exp. 1.10), Revenue 34.4bln (exp. 34.27bln). SSS ex-gas +2.4% (exp. +2.0%); started USD 5.0bln accelerated share repurchase program. Guidance: Identical Sales without fuel 2.0-3.0% (exp. 2.0%); Adj. FIFO operating profit 4.7-4.9bln; Adj. net earnings per diluted share 4.60-4.80 (exp. 4.79).


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  Walmart (WMT) - Asked some Chinese suppliers for major price cuts, with Walmart's efforts to shift the burden of US tariffs facing strong pushback from firms in the Asian nation, Bloomberg reports. Some suppliers have reportedly been asked to cut prices by up to 10%. Thus far, few have accepted this request as margins are thin for suppliers.


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  Grocery Outlet (GO) - Director John Bachman purchased 14k shares on March 4th for a total USD 159k.


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  Seven & i Holdings (SVNDY) - Plans a large-scale JPY 2tln share buyback to boost its stock valuation, Bloomberg reports, and will implement a progressive dividend policy. The company will replace CEO Ryuichi Isaka with director Stephen Dacus. It plans to retain a majority stake in its North American convenience subsidiary 7-Eleven following an IPO, which is expected to raise over JPY 1tln.


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  Walmart (WMT) - The Walton Family Holdings Trust sold 2.82mln Walmart shares worth USD 307.5mln, though it retains a significant stake.

FINANCIALS

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  Money Market Rates - NY Fed's Roberto Perli (Manager of the SOMA, and a senior leader at the NY Fed's Markets Group) warned that the ongoing debt-ceiling impasse could disrupt the Fed’s balance-sheet runoff and cause volatility in money-market rates. Once resolved, the Treasury will rapidly rebuild its cash reserves, impacting bank reserves and the reverse repo facility, which is near depletion.


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  Morgan Stanley (MS) - The US Commerce Department appointed former Morgan Stanley banker Michael Grimes to lead its planned sovereign wealth fund. The initiative, part of President Trump’s strategy, aims to secure US involvement in national security-related projects. Grimes, after leaving the bank, will oversee the fund’s operations.


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  Citigroup (C) - Appointed Rob Chan as the head of its equity capital markets syndication business for Asia, according to a memo reviewed by Reuters.

MATERIALS

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  Rio Tinto (RIO) - Will invest USD 1.8bln in its Brockman Syncline 1 iron ore project in Western Australia’s Pilbara region. The project, already approved by state and federal authorities, is set to begin production in 2027 — one year ahead of schedule. It extends the Brockman hub’s lifespan while Rio Tinto also expands its focus on copper.


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  IFF (IFF) - CEO J. Erik Fyrwald purchased 25k shares on March 4th at USD 80.2351/shr for a total USD 2.0mln.


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  Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) - Upgraded to a 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank on three main points: Material cash flow upside from potential US copper tariffs and other possible policy measures (very little in the share price for this); Large gold exposure (~18% of 2025 mining revenue); Attractive valuation, with the shares trading on a 2026 estimated EV/EBITDA of ~6.7x and FCFy of 8% (spot ~7x and ~6%) compared to its target multiple of ~8x.

INDUSTRIALS:

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  Boeing (BA) - CEO encouraged employees to provide candid feedback on the company's issues, even if it is critical of leadership. In a companywide address, Ortberg emphasised a willingness to listen and develop an action plan based on employee input, acknowledging the feedback might be harsh for the leadership.


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  Deutsche Lufthansa (DLAKY) - Forecasts significantly higher earnings for FY25, supported by strong travel demand and fleet expansion. The airline reported FY24 adj. earnings of EUR 1.65bln (-39% Y/Y), but it expects a recovery in FY25 due to continued demand.


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  Deutsche Post (DHLGY) - Announced plans to cut 8,000 jobs in Germany as part of a cost-reduction initiative aimed at saving EUR 1bln; the cuts are part of a broader strategy for long-term growth, with the full impact expected by 2027. Share buyback programme has been boosted by EUR 2bln, taking the aggregate size to EUR 6bln, and has been extended until 2026.


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  Air France-KLM (AFLYY) - Net income improved in Q4, while revenue was a little above expectations, boosted by higher capacity and maintenance revenue; the airline plans to increase seat capacity by 4-5% in 2025.

ENERGY

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  China Demand - China's National People's Congress directed oil refiners to reduce fuel output and boost chemical production. This comes as consumption of diesel and gasoline has peaked, according to Sinopec Group. The shift raises concerns about global oil demand as the country, the largest importer, adjusts its energy needs, Bloomberg reports.


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  Mexico Crude - US refiners have reduced orders for Mexican crude oil by 17% for March vs February, requesting 410k BPD, Bloomberg reports. The decline occurred before President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Mexican goods, including crude oil.


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  PBF Energy (PBF) - Said throughput during stage one of restart is expected to be in the range of 85k-105kbpd.

HEALTHCARE

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  Merck KGaA (MKKGY) - FY adj. profits missed expectations, net sales were in line; it expects slow profit growth in 2025, with adj. earnings projected between EUR 6.1-6.6bln (exp. 6.53bln); exec said the life science sector is recovering, while its semiconductor division benefits from the AI boom.


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  Philips (PHG), Amazon (AMZN) - Philips has chosen AWS as its preferred cloud provider to support its business transformation and enhance healthcare informatics solutions globally. This cloud-first, AI-driven approach is expected to improve care delivery, accelerate product development, and lower infrastructure costs, it said.


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  Veeva (VEEV) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.74 (exp. 1.58), Revenue 720.9mln (exp. 699.4mln), driven by 17% Y/Y growth in subscription services. Guidance: Q1 adj. EPS 1.74-1.75 (exp. 1.62), Revenue 726-729mln (exp. 725.8mln). FY26 adj. EPS around 7.32 (exp. 6.97), Revenue 3.04-3.055bln (exp. 3.06bln).


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  Novo Nordisk (NVO) - Slashed the price of its weight-loss drug, Wegovy, by more than half on Wednesday amid a bitter rivalry with Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) (sent tumbling premarket). Separately, Novo Nordisk is to explore how GLP-1 drugs could help patients struggling with addiction, head of development Lange told an online press conference.

COMMUNICATIONS

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  Alphabet (GOOG) - Launched a YouTube Premium Lite pilot in the US, offering users an ad-free service for USD 7.99/month. The service will also expand to Thailand, Germany, and Australia in the coming weeks, providing a lower-cost alternative to the full YouTube Premium subscription.


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  Discord IPO - Is in early talks with bankers for a potential IPO in 2025, though plans remain uncertain, NYT reports. Last valued at USD 15bln in 2021, the Co. generates revenue through subscriptions rather than ads. It has expanded beyond gaming to broader online communities and recently introduced a digital shop.


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  Social media names - US Republican Walberg said he’s planning on reintroducing his bill to extend online privacy protections to many teen users soon, adding that he thinks the moment is ripe for it to pass, according to Punchbowl.

UTILITIES

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  Edison International (EIX) - Los Angeles County is suing Edison International to recover costs incurred from the Eaton Fire, a destructive wildfire in January. The lawsuit claims equipment from Southern California Edison caused the blaze, leading to hundreds of millions of dollars in expenses for firefighting efforts and infrastructure repairs.

06 Mar 2025 - 13:54- Fixed IncomeResearch Sheet- Source: Newsquawk