Newsquawk Daily US Election Update – 23rd September 2024: 42 days to go, Harris leads the polls but NYT/Siena poll is Trump's best in weeks

Analysis details (13:17)

• It is just 42 days until the US Presidential election, and as such both sides are ramping up their rhetoric and continuing to try to edge out in front, in what is set to be one of the closest elections in history.


• As such, both candidates were speaking over the weekend whereby former President Trump actually said he does not expect to run for election again in 2028 if he is defeated in this election. Is this a tactic to try and garner some more support as it’s the ‘last time’ or is it just the truth?


• In addition, we can continue to expect appearances from Trump v Harris in key battleground states.


• On Wednesday, Trump is due to give an economic speech in Georgia, while Harris campaigns in Pennsylvania. Trump holds a couple of campaign events in Michigan on Friday, with Harris in Arizona and she appears in Nevada on Sunday.

COMMENTARY:

• AGF’s Greg Valliere writes “barring a major gaffe or scandal, Harris is poised to win the presidency on November 5th. Virtually every poll shows her gaining ground, but perhaps the bigger story is Trump’s loss of momentum.”


• Valliere does add though, that it is still a tricky call, and Trump still has a path to 270 electoral votes, but he seems to lack the energy he showed in previous campaigns. He adds Axios noted this morning that he has held far fewer rallies than in 2016, but some also cite this is due to the recent assassination attempts he has encountered.


• Concluding, he writes “it’s a very close call, but we think Harris will maintain a 4-5% lead, just enough to capture Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.”

WEEKEND POLLING:

• As expected, there have been several new polls over the weekend, with a national NBC News poll favouring Harris, while the latest NYT/Siena poll shows some positives for Trump.

NBC News:

• The new national NBC News poll finds Harris with a 5-point lead over Trump among registered voters, 49% to 44%.


• Harris’ favourability has jumped 16 points since July [when it was Biden v Trump], the largest increase for any politician in NBC News polling since then-President Bush’s standing surged after 9/11.


• Harris holds the advantage over Trump on being seen as competent and effective, as well as having the mental and physical health to be president.


• Regarding voting breakdown, the current VP leads among Black voters (85%-7%), voters aged 18-34 (57%-34%), women (58%-37%), white voters with college degrees (59%-38%) and independents (43%-35%).


• Meanwhile, Trump is ahead among men (52%-40%), white voters (52%-43%) and white voters without college degrees (61%-33%).


• 71% percent of all voters say their minds are made up, while 11% say they might change their vote (prev. 26% in April poll).


• In terms of policies, the polls have Harris leading on abortion, fitness and change; Trump is ahead on the border and inflation.


• As such, voters still give Trump the advantage on two of the biggest issues on voters’ minds: the economy and inflation. For the record, his gains have decreased on both since Harris became Democratic Presidential candidate.

CBS News/YouGov poll:

• A new poll finds Harris with a 4-point lead nationally among likely voters, with a 2-point lead among likely voters in battleground states.

NYT/Siena poll:

• The polls found that Trump has gained a lead in Arizona and remains ahead in Georgia, two states that he lost to President Biden in 2020. 


• But in North Carolina, which has not voted for a Democrat since 2008, Harris trails Trump by just a narrow margin.


• Note, the polls of these three states [Sept. 17th-21st] presented even more evidence that this Presidential contest is shaping up to be one of the tightest in history. Nate Cohn writes, these [latest Times/Siena results] are some of the best results for Trump in these states for weeks.


• Broadly, Trump leads 50%-45% in Arizona, 49%-45% in Georgia, and 49%-47% in North Carolina.

CURRENT POLLING:

• Overall, current polls continue to have Harris in front in both the national polls and swing states, but it is very tight.

NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL POLLS:

• 
  RCP Average: Harris +2.2 (prev. +2.1 D/D).


• 
  538: Harris +2.9 (prev. +2.8).


• 
  Nate Silver: Harris +3.0 (prev. +2.7).


• 
  PredicIt: Harris USD 0.57 vs. Trump USD 0.46 (prev. 0.58 vs. 0.46).


• 
  Polymarket: Harris 51% vs. Trump 47% (prev. 51% vs. 48%).

SWING STATES:

• 
  Arizona: Trump +0.5 (prev. +0.6 D/D); Trump +0.7 (prev. Harris +0.8 W/W).


• 
  Nevada: Harris +0.8 (prev. +0.7); Harris +1.2 (prev. +1.2).


• 
  Wisconsin: Harris +1.9 (prev. +1.7); Harris +1.9 (prev. Trump +0.2).


• 
  Michigan: Harris +2.7 (prev. +2.7); Harris +2.5 (prev. +1.3).


• 
  Pennsylvania: Harris +1.5 (prev. +1.4); Harris +1.5 (prev. +1.4).


• 
  North Carolina: Trump +0.1 (prev. Harris +0.2); Trump +0.1 (prev. Harris +0.2).


• 
  Georgia: Trump +1.0 (prev. +1.1); Trump +0.8 (prev. +0.1).


• D/D via 538 averages; W/W via Nate Silver

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23 Sep 2024 - 13:17- MetalsResearch Sheet- Source: Newsquawk